MLB Computer Picks Today: MLB AI Picks and Best F5 Bets for June 25, 2026
Today’s MLB computer picks lean heavily toward First Five Innings unders. With several top-tier starters taking the mound, the model expects a lower-scoring early-game slate and has found its clearest value in matchups where strong pitching, weak splits, or recent offensive downturns create meaningful run suppression.
These MLB AI picks focus on the first five innings to reduce the volatility that comes with bullpen usage, inherited runners, reliever fatigue, and late-game matchup decisions. The model evaluates starting-pitcher skill, expected ERA, FIP, strikeout and walk rates, home-run prevention, handedness splits, recent offensive production, and historical batter-versus-pitcher results.
For bettors looking for additional daily forecasts across multiple sports, visit our latest AI betting apps for data-driven betting insights and projections.
Mariners vs Pirates F5 Under 4.5 (-125)
Seattle and Pittsburgh project for 3.95 total First Five runs, leaving more than a half-run of room below the 4.5 market number at a manageable price.
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Seattle is the primary run-suppression factor. The Mariners own a respectable 101 wRC+ for the season, but their recent offense has also cooled dramatically, falling to only a 68 wRC+ over the last 14 days.
Key Mariners offensive metrics:
- 101 wRC+ for the season
- 103 wRC+ over the last 30 days
- 68 wRC+ over the last 14 days
Bryce Miller is the main reason Seattle run supression projects so low. He owns a 2.15 xERA in 2026 and a nearly identical 2.19 xERA over the last month. His 40-inning workload creates some reliability uncertainty, but the underlying performance remains excellent. Pittsburgh is also the bigger offensive risk because the Pirates own a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and have been playing well offensively.
On the other side, Bubba Chandler has shown meaningful improvement recently, posting a 3.43 xERA and allowing only 0.67 HR/9 across his last 27 innings.
Key pitching metrics:
- Bryce Miller: 2.15 season xERA
- Bryce Miller: 2.19 xERA over the last month
- Bubba Chandler: 3.43 recent xERA
- Bubba Chandler: 0.67 HR/9 over his last 27 innings
Pittsburgh has the better offensive side of the matchup, but Seattle’s recent struggles keep the overall projection below four runs.
Phillies vs Nationals F5 Under 4.5 (-135)
Philadelphia and Washington project for just 3.92 First Five runs, making this the lowest projected 4.5 under on the board.
Cristopher Sánchez is the anchor. Across 105 innings, Sánchez has posted a 2.96 xERA, 2.26 FIP, 10.37 K/9, 1.71 BB/9, and a 57.3% ground-ball rate. He has remained just as strong recently, carrying a 2.97 xERA and an outstanding 1.10 BB/9.
Key Cristopher Sánchez metrics:
- 2.96 xERA
- 2.26 FIP
- 10.37 K/9
- 1.71 BB/9
- 57.3% ground-ball rate
- 2.97 recent xERA
- 1.10 recent BB/9
His matchup history against the current Washington roster is equally impressive. Nationals hitters own only a .189 average and .212 wOBA against Sánchez across 80 plate appearances, with an average exit velocity of just 84.3 mph.
Washington’s 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitching is the main reason this is not an even stronger under. But that split is already reflected in the Nationals’ 1.67-run projection and does not outweigh Sánchez’s full profile.
Cade Cavalli is not an elite arm, but he has been capable enough to limit a Philadelphia offense that owns only a 92 wRC+ for the season, ranking 25th overall. Cavalli enters with a 4.50 xERA and 3.50 FIP, while the Phillies’ recent improvement is not enough to push this game toward a five-run early total.
Rangers vs Blue Jays F5 Under 4.5 (-130)
Texas and Toronto project for 4.00 First Five runs, leaving a clean half-run cushion below the posted total.
Texas owns a 95 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, so this is not an automatic offense to fade. However, Kevin Gausman remains a strong matchup on the other side. He enters with a 3.48 xERA, 3.42 FIP, and 9.00 K/9. His recent ERA has been poor, but his 3.67 recent xERA suggests the surface results have overstated the decline.
Key Kevin Gausman metrics:
- 3.48 xERA
- 3.42 FIP
- 9.00 K/9
- 3.67 xERA recently
- .195 batting average allowed to current Rangers hitters
- .252 wOBA allowed to current Rangers hitters
- 26.4% strikeout rate against current Rangers hitters across 91 plate appearances
Toronto has a putrid 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and MacKenzie Gore is not the automatic over driver that his 4.07 ERA may imply. Gore’s 4.08 xERA and 3.54 FIP describe a roughly average starter, and Texas has not shown the offensive profile of a lineup likely to create a major early scoring surge by itself.
This is more of a projection-driven under than a dominant pitcher-versus-weak-offense matchup, but sides contribute to an expected total below the market number.
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