MLB Computer Picks Today: MLB AI Picks and Best F5 Bets for July 3, 2026
Use Code PPWC
Today's MLB computer picks continue to focus on the First Five Innings, where starting pitching drives the majority of game outcomes before bullpen variance enters the equation. Rather than projecting all nine innings, these MLB AI picks isolate the cleanest pitching-versus-offense matchups using advanced metrics like wRC+, wOBA, ISO, xERA, FIP, strikeout and walk rates, handedness splits, and recent offensive trends.
The model also emphasizes selecting the best betting market for each edge. Sometimes that means backing an explosive offense with a team total over. Other times, the stronger play is fading a cold lineup or taking a First Five side when both the starting pitcher and offensive matchup point in the same direction.
For bettors looking for additional daily forecasts across multiple sports, visit our latest AI betting picks for data-driven betting insights and projections.
Braves Team Total Under 2.5 Runs First Five Innings (-145)
Atlanta enters Friday as the clearest offensive fade on the slate.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Although the Braves still carry a strong reputation among bettors, the recent production has fallen off dramatically. Against right-handed pitching they own just a 98 wRC+, and the recent numbers have become some of the worst in baseball.
Braves Offensive Profile
Against Right-Handed Pitching
- 98 wRC+
Last 30 Days
- 65 wRC+
Last 14 Days
- 54 wRC+ (Lowest in MLB)
Recent production has been especially concerning:
- .250 wOBA
- .093 ISO
- Minimal extra-base power
- Consistent struggles creating multi-run innings
Christian Scott isn't a household name, but his underlying profile fits perfectly against Atlanta's current offensive weaknesses.
Christian Scott Key Metrics
- 10.60 K/9
- Swing-and-miss arsenal
- Strong recent command
- Continues limiting quality contact
The historical matchup also favors the pitcher.
Braves vs. Christian Scott
- .208 wOBA
- .190 xwOBA
Rather than relying on the Mets to provide run support, this wager isolates the strongest edge in the game—Atlanta's inability to consistently score against quality right-handed pitching.
The model projects the Braves for approximately 1.8 First Five runs.
Dodgers Team Total Over 2.5 Runs First Five Innings (-120)
No offense grades higher than Los Angeles on Friday's slate.
The Dodgers continue to pair elite season-long production with outstanding recent form, making them one of the most reliable offenses in baseball regardless of matchup.
Dodgers Offensive Profile
Season
- 120 wRC+
Against Right-Handed Pitching
- 124 wRC+
Last 30 Days
- 125 wRC+
Last 14 Days
- 133 wRC+
Very few lineups can match the Dodgers' combination of patience, power, and consistent hard contact.
The matchup against Michael King creates additional value.
Michael King Recent Profile
Last Five Starts
- 6.54 xERA
- 5.05 FIP
- 5.72 K/9
While King's season-long numbers remain respectable, his recent underlying metrics tell a different story. His strikeout rate has fallen sharply, and his expected run-prevention numbers have moved in the wrong direction.
Reduced swing-and-miss ability is rarely a recipe for success against baseball's deepest lineup.
The historical matchup supports the projection as well.
Dodgers vs. Michael King
- .363 wOBA
- .411 xwOBA
Rather than paying a premium on the Dodgers moneyline, the team total focuses directly on the model's biggest edge—Los Angeles producing runs against a starter whose underlying profile has deteriorated.
The projection lands around 3.4 First Five runs.
Nationals F5 -0.5 (-120)
Washington earns the strongest First Five side because both the starting-pitching matchup and offensive split point toward an early advantage.
Foster Griffin has quietly been one of the more effective starters over the past month.
Foster Griffin Key Metrics
Last Month
- 2.61 xERA
- 2.73 FIP
- 9.48 K/9
- 1.15 BB/9
His improved command has dramatically reduced free baserunners while helping limit hard contact.
Meanwhile, Mitch Keller has trended in the opposite direction.
Mitch Keller Recent Profile
Last Five Starts
- 6.23 ERA
- 6.25 xERA
- 5.88 FIP
- 4.50 BB/9
The increased walks and declining run prevention have created far more traffic than earlier in the season.
Washington also owns the offensive split advantage.
Offensive Splits
Nationals vs. Right-Handed Pitching
- 101 wRC+
Pirates vs. Left-Handed Pitching
- 89 wRC+
That difference becomes meaningful when paired with the current pitching matchup.
The model projects Washington to lead approximately 2.9-1.9 through five innings, making the First Five run line the cleanest way to capitalize on the combined pitching and offensive advantages..
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $200 in Bonuses Instantly!
