MLB Home Run Player Props for Tuesday, September 9, 2025

By: Devin Erickson-Sheehy Updated 09/09/2025, 01:00 PM ET

The September stretch run always brings extra betting value, and home run props remain one of the most exciting markets on the board. Tonight’s MLB slate features power bats in strong spots against vulnerable pitchers, making for three intriguing opportunities to swing for big payouts.

Today’s MLB HR Prop Picks

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+440)
Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+285)
Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+420)

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Bryce Harper +440 to Go Deep

Normally, a lefty vs. lefty matchup is something we shy away from, but Bryce Harper’s history against Sean Manaea makes this line stand out. Harper owns a 6-for-16 career mark against Manaea with one homer already, and given Manaea’s 2025 struggles, Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly setup could help him connect again.

Philadelphia’s lineup thrives at home, and Harper’s approach at the plate is built for these types of matchups where patience and power can punish mistakes. With the Phillies looking to bury the Mets in the NL East race, Harper should remain aggressive at the dish. At +440, this is strong value for a player with his track record.

See also: Mets vs Phillies pick

Giancarlo Stanton +285 at Yankee Stadium

Normally we like seeing +350 or higher for home run props, but Giancarlo Stanton’s current form makes +285 playable. Stanton has been locked in lately, showcasing his trademark power and ability to punish mistakes.

Casey Mize hasn’t shown the consistency to keep elite sluggers quiet, and Stanton has been far more dangerous in the Bronx. With a 1.014 OPS at Yankee Stadium this season, the ball has been jumping off his bat in front of the home crowd. If Mize falls behind in the count, Stanton is the type of hitter who can instantly make him pay.

See also: Tigers vs Yankees pick

Michael Busch +420 Against Spencer Strider

It’s been a rough 2025 for Spencer Strider, who has surrendered 18 home runs across 19 starts. That’s a troubling trend against a left-handed bat like Michael Busch, who has displayed plenty of power against right-handed pitching.

Of Busch’s 26 long balls this season, 24 have come against righties, making this matchup tailor-made for him. At +420, the value is undeniable, especially given Strider’s ongoing struggles to keep the ball in the yard. If Busch gets a couple of looks at him tonight, the chances of a no-doubt shot are well within range.

See also: Cubs vs Braves pick

When it comes to MLB picks, home run props always come with risk, but these three picks line up with favorable matchups, power splits, and ballpark advantages. Bettors looking for high-upside spots should keep Harper, Stanton, and Busch on the radar tonight.

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