MLB Player Props for Thursday, September 4 2025
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We are locked in on the MLB player props market tonight, unearthing three hidden gems. When sizing today's MLB picks, the prop market is primed with value, presenting unique opportunities that are unavailable when playing a full game side or total.
It's a quiet night across baseball tonight, but not if you know where to look, so let's dive in!
Today's Top MLB Prop Bets
- Carlos Rodon under 5.5 strikeouts (-125)
- Ryan Pepiot over 15.5 outs recorded (+102)
- Adam Frazier 2+ total bases (+145)
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
We are playing into recent trends here when honing in on tonight's Yankees vs Astros matchup. Carlos Rodon has failed to eclipse this number in his last five starts, averaging a total of just 4.2 punchouts per start. His strikeout rate has been trending downward throughout the course of the season and fell below a strikeout per inning for the first time in August, as he fanned just 30 batters over 34.1 innings.
For their part, the Astros generally do put the ball in play ranking 9th in the league in strikeout rate. We also see their veteran lineup posting some tough at bats against Rodon, driving his pitch total up.
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With an injury history in the not so distant past, and his overall season innings total drifting upward, it wouldn't be a shock to see Rodon on a strict pitch count tonight. We expect to see a heavy dose of the New York bullpen with October creeping closer and the Yankees now in a comfortable spot within the Wild Card race.
Add it all up, and we are under the total here.
Ryan Pepiot Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+102)
We see some value down south tonight in the Guardians vs Rays AL showdown.
Ryan Pepiot has come in below this total in his last two starts, firing back-to-back five inning games. However, these recent blips, appear to be more of an anomaly than the rule. Dating back 11 starts he has eclipsed 5.1 innings eight times (72% of his starts). Recent performance is being weighted a bit too heavily in this line.
Pepiot also has a terrific matchup tonight against a hapless Guardians offense which ranks 27th in runs scored, and dead last in batting average and on base percentage. A matchup with Cleveland is conducive to a longer outing given the clubs alarmingly bad .294 team OBP.
If Pepiot can limit base traffic tonight, we see no issues with him going over the total and pitching into the 6th inning and beyond.
Adam Frazier 2+ Total Bases (+145)
Last but not least, we are looking at a hitter prop in the Angels vs Rays tilt. We are on Adam Frazier to eclipse 1.5 total bases.
Frazier has seen a lot of LA starter Kyle Hendricks and has absolutely owned him over the years. Through 34 career AB's, Frazier boasts a whopping .412 batting average and a 1.106 OPS that includes two home runs. That kind of eye popping career success is well worth a plus money flier.
Frazier also comes in to Thursday night red hot, posting a .348 batting average over his last seven contest.
The concern here is that Frazier doesn't hit for a ton of power, so he may need multiple hits to edge the total. That said, we still like the odds of a multi hit game or an extra base hit carrying us over the number.
For those interested, you can get Frazier 2+ hits at +280, which could be another way to play it.
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