New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday June 17 2026
Wednesday afternoon brings the last of a three-game set to Great American Ball Park, and if you have been following our MLB picks this week, you already know the Reds have been dominant in this series. Cincinnati closes out a potential sweep against a New York squad that has struggled to manufacture runs, and the pitching matchup, the injury reports, and the line movement all point in the same direction. Here is everything you need to make a sharp decision before first pitch.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (Run Line)
- Total Pick: Over 9 (-115)
- Best Bet: Reds Moneyline (+113)
- Projected Final Score: Reds 6, Mets 5
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | -136 | -1.5 | Over 9 (-115) |
| Cincinnati Reds | +113 | +1.5 | Under 9 (-105) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | NY Mets | Cincinnati | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17 | 12:33:40 AM | -136 | +113 | NYM 98%, NYM 72% |
| 06/16 | 10:10:38 PM | -131 | +108 | NYM 100%, NYM 100% |
| 06/16 | 06:48:58 PM | -131 | +109 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/17 | 07:33:35 AM | 9-115 | 9-105 | OV 99%, OV 76% |
| 06/17 | 12:33:40 AM | 9-114 | 9-105 | |
| 06/16 | 10:10:38 PM | 9-112 | 9-107 | |
| 06/16 | 06:48:59 PM | 9-115 | 9-105 |
The moneyline has shifted notably against New York despite massive public support. The Mets opened at -131 and have been bet up to -136, with 98 percent of tickets and 72 percent of money on New York. That divergence between ticket percentage and money percentage suggests sharper money has been coming in on Cincinnati, even as casual bettors continue to back the favorite. On the total, the over has absorbed near-universal public action with 99 percent of tickets and 76 percent of dollars, yet the line has moved only a single cent in either direction. Totals that absorb heavy public steam without moving up typically signal sharp resistance or a sharp under play on the other side. Neither movement pattern fully supports the public side here.
Mets vs Reds Key Matchups and Game Preview
Mets Starting Pitching
Nolan McLean takes the ball for New York with a 3-4 record, a 4.01 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP across 76.1 innings. He has struck out 88 and walked 31, giving him the more favorable command profile in this particular matchup. On paper, McLean represents the stronger starting arm of the two, and his WHIP gives the Mets a genuine path to controlling the early innings and keeping this game within reach. The issue is not McLean's ability to put up zeros. The issue is whether the New York lineup can give him any support.
Reds Starting Pitching
Nick Lodolo counters at 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP through just 38 innings. The strikeout-to-walk ratio of 30 strikeouts and 15 walks is not alarming, but the ERA and WHIP both indicate that hitters have had success against him this season. A Mets lineup desperate to wake up offensively should have real opportunities against Lodolo, particularly once the order turns over. The question is whether New York can convert on those chances or continue the offensive slumber that has defined this series.
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Offensive Comparison
The power split here is significant and largely underappreciated in the public wagering numbers. Cincinnati carries 94 home runs and a .397 slugging percentage as a team. New York sits at 77 home runs and a .369 slugging mark. That gap is not trivial. Juan Soto remains elite for the Mets with 15 home runs, a .289 average, a .389 OBP, and a .549 slugging percentage, and Bo Bichette has contributed 41 RBI to the lineup. However, without Tyrone Taylor, Jose Rojas, and Mike Tauchman, the New York depth is thinner than usual, and the lineup has produced only three total runs across two games in this series.
For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz's absence due to injury is the loudest concern. De La Cruz hits .280 with a .346 OBP and .509 slugging, which is an impact bat that changes the complexity of Cincinnati's offense. That said, Sal Stewart has stepped up with 14 home runs and 47 RBI, and the Reds' broader power profile more than covers the gap in a single game. Cincinnati has shown in the first two contests of this series that they can manufacture runs and put pressure on opposing pitchers even without their best player.
Betting Trends - NYM and CIN
- Cincinnati has taken both games of this series by a combined score of 17-3, including a shutout.
- The Reds are 35-37 overall and have won two consecutive games entering Wednesday.
- New York is 32-41 and has dropped two straight, scoring only three total runs in this series.
- The public is backing the Mets heavily on the moneyline at 98 percent of tickets and 72 percent of money, yet the line has moved against them from -131 to -136.
- Over 99 percent of total tickets are on the over, yet the line has barely moved, suggesting sharp resistance on that side.
- Cincinnati sits at plus money on the moneyline despite being the home team and the team with better recent form, which creates clear value.
- The Mets' team slugging percentage of .369 lags behind the Reds' .397 mark, a gap that has shown up in this series.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NYM and CIN
New York Mets: Outfielders Tyrone Taylor and Mike Tauchman are on the injured list alongside infielder Jose Rojas, thinning the lineup depth behind the top of the order. Relievers Kevin Herget and Mike Baumann are also unavailable, which limits bullpen options if McLean runs into trouble early or needs to be pulled before the sixth inning.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz is sidelined, removing one of the most dangerous bats in the lineup. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Connor Burns, Pierce Johnson, and Emilio Pagan are also out. The bullpen losses of Johnson and Pagan are worth monitoring if this game gets tight late, as Cincinnati's relief depth takes a meaningful hit in a one-run situation.
Series Context: The Reds won Game 1 by a score of 12-0 and took Game 2 by a final of 5-3. New York has now been outscored 17-3 in this series and has yet to string together a multi-run inning. The momentum, the home crowd, and the offensive profile all point toward Cincinnati carrying that form into the series finale.
Mets vs Reds Side and Over/Under Picks
Side Pick: Cincinnati +1.5 (Run Line) The safer play in this matchup is the Reds covering the run line at +1.5. Given their series dominance, the home-field advantage, and the value present at plus money on the moneyline, Cincinnati is the correct side. The run line cushion also insulates against a late Mets push if McLean delivers a strong outing and the game stays close into the seventh or eighth inning.
Best Bet: Reds Moneyline (+113) Taking Cincinnati outright at plus money represents genuine value in a spot where the public is leaning heavily toward New York. The sharp money movement against the Mets and the Reds' form in this series both support going back to Cincinnati as the winner. You are getting paid more than even money to back the team that has dominated this series from start to finish.
Total Pick: Over 9 (-115) Lodolo's 5.21 ERA and 1.45 WHIP suggest the Mets will find some offense eventually, and both bullpens are operating with depleted rosters. If this game gets competitive in the middle innings and the starting pitchers give way to relief arms, scoring chances increase. The over at 9 is the play, with both sides having the talent to push this total past the number.
Final Score Prediction
- Reds: 6
- Mets: 5
This should be the closest game of the series, with McLean keeping New York competitive early and the Mets finally generating some offense against Lodolo. However, Cincinnati's power advantage and their momentum as a club in the middle of a winning streak should be enough to hold on for the sweep. Expect a one-run game decided late, with the Reds finding a way to get the walk-off or extend the lead just enough in the middle innings to survive a Mets rally.
How to Wager On Mets vs Reds
If you are new to betting this matchup or looking to sharpen your approach, there are a few strategies worth considering beyond simply picking a moneyline winner. The run line at +1.5 for Cincinnati offers a cushion in a series that has stayed relatively competitive outside of the blowout in Game 1. If you prefer the Mets to bounce back, buying them on the run line at -1.5 requires more confidence in the offense waking up against Lodolo.
For totals bettors, the over at 9 is the play given both pitching staffs dealing with injuries and Lodolo's inflated ERA. Live betting is also worth watching in this one. If the Mets get on the board early and the game tightens, Cincinnati's live moneyline will offer much better value than the current opener price.
If you want additional help finding an edge in games like this, our AI picks section covers the latest model-driven analysis across the board. We have also put together an in-depth Dimers review and an Oddible review for bettors who want to explore data-driven tools to complement their own handicapping process.
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