New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Predictions for Friday May 22 2026
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The New York Mets travel to loanDepot park in Miami, Florida, for a Friday night matchup against the Miami Marlins on May 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 PM ET with coverage available on MLB.TV. The Mets enter as a -124 moneyline favorite while the Marlins are listed at +103. The total for the game is set at 8 runs, with New York sitting at +137 on the -1.5 run line while Miami is -166 at +1.5. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Set for Friday Night
Tobias Myers takes the mound for New York carrying a 0-1 record with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP across 29.0 innings pitched this season. He has allowed only 24 hits while striking out 23 batters and issuing six walks. Miami counters with Eury Perez, who enters with a 2-6 record, a 5.33 ERA, and a 1.41 WHIP over 52.1 innings. Perez has allowed 46 hits while recording 58 strikeouts and walking 28 batters this season.
Mets Hoping to Build Off Recent Victory
New York enters this matchup with a 22-28 overall record and an 11-15 road mark this season. The Mets recently won over Washington 2-1 after previously recently lost to the Nationals by scores of 8-4 and 9-6. Before that series, New York recently won over Washington 16-7 in 12 innings and recently won over the Yankees 7-6 in 10 innings. The Mets have shown the ability to produce offense in stretches but have struggled to consistently put together winning streaks this season.
The Mets are batting .232 as a team with 202 runs scored, 384 hits, and 45 home runs this season. New York owns a .297 on-base percentage and a .361 slugging percentage while posting a 3.91 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP on the mound. Mets pitching has also generated 460 strikeouts this season while holding opponents to a .234 batting average.
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One major strength for New York entering this matchup is the pitching staff’s ability to miss bats. The Mets have recorded significantly more strikeouts than Miami this season while also carrying the lower ERA. New York has also allowed only one run in the most recent victory over Washington, showing the pitching staff’s ability to settle games down after high-scoring stretches.
Miami Searching for Better Results at Home
Miami enters Friday night with a 22-29 overall record and a balanced 15-15 home record this season. The Marlins recently lost to Atlanta three straight times by scores of 9-3, 9-1, and 8-4 after previously recently won over Atlanta 12-0. Before that series, Miami recently lost to Tampa Bay 6-3. The Marlins have struggled defensively during the current stretch after allowing 32 runs across the last four losses.
The Marlins are batting .246 as a team with 218 runs scored, 408 hits, and 39 home runs this season. Miami owns a .322 on-base percentage and a .375 slugging percentage while carrying a 4.30 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. The pitching staff has recorded 416 strikeouts while opponents are batting .228 against Miami pitching this season.
One area where Miami has struggled recently is run prevention. The Marlins have allowed at least eight runs in three consecutive losses entering this matchup, and the pitching staff carries the higher ERA compared to New York. Although Miami has produced solid offensive numbers overall, keeping opposing offenses under control has remained a challenge recently.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Pick
- Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
New York enters this matchup with the stronger overall pitching profile and appears to hold the advantage in the starting pitching matchup. The Mets own the lower team ERA and have generated more strikeouts this season while also allowing a slightly lower opponent batting average. Miami has struggled during the recent losing streak, especially defensively, after allowing 32 runs across four losses. With New York coming off a strong pitching performance against Washington, the Mets look positioned to grab the road victory.
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Total Pick
- Pick: Over 8
I believe this matchup leans toward the over because both teams have recently been involved in high-scoring games. The Mets scored 16 runs in one game against Washington earlier this week, while Miami allowed at least eight runs in three straight losses against Atlanta. Although New York carries stronger overall pitching numbers, both teams have shown the ability to generate offense recently. With the total sitting at 8, the over looks like the stronger play Friday night.
Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 6 – Miami Marlins 4
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