New York Mets vs New York Yankees Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 11 2026
The Subway Series renews Friday night at Yankee Stadium, and this rivalry matchup between two streaking clubs is a must-check spot for anyone following the latest MLB picks. The Yankees enter at 84-62 and have won three straight as they chase Tampa Bay in the AL East, while the Mets sit at 68-78 but bring their own four-game winning streak into the Bronx. With Nolan McLean starting for New York's National League club against Carlos Rodon for the Yankees, this game features two of the better ERAs in either rotation.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side: Yankees -142 (Moneyline)
- Total: Under 8 (-108)
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Mets 2
Odds and Line Movement
Below is the current market snapshot for Mets at Yankees, followed by line movement tables tracking the moneyline and total along with public betting splits leading up to first pitch.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Mets | +118 | +1.5 | 8 |
| NY Yankees | -142 | -1.5 (+153) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | NY Mets | NY Yankees | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | +118 | -142 | NYY 82%, NYY 83% |
| 09/11 | +117 | -142 | NYY 81%, NYY 82% |
| 09/10 | +118 | -142 | NYM 59%, NYM 67% |
| 09/10 | +113 | -137 | NYM 59%, NYM 67% |
| 09/10 | +113 | -136 | |
| 09/10 | +115 | -138 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-107 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-107 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-107 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-112 | 8-108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-111 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-111 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-111 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/11 | 8-109 | 8-110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
Mets vs Yankees Key Matchups and Game Preview
New York's two clubs enter this Subway Series matchup on winning streaks despite very different places in the standings. The Yankees are 84-62 and have won three straight as they push toward the top of the AL East, while the Mets are 68-78 but have won four in a row heading into the Bronx. Both starters carry ERAs near 3.00, which sets up a game that could hinge on run prevention rather than offensive fireworks.
Mets' Starting Pitching
Nolan McLean has been excellent over a full workload for the Mets, posting an 11-8 record with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP across 161.2 innings. He has allowed only 120 hits while striking out 179 batters, though his 65 walks give the Yankees a chance to create traffic if they stay patient at the plate.
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Yankees' Starting Pitching
Carlos Rodon counters with a 5-3 record, a 3.09 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 64 innings, recording 70 strikeouts while allowing just 41 hits and six home runs. His numbers are nearly identical to McLean's, making the pitching matchup one of the most even parts of this game.
Bronx Power Numbers
The Yankees carry the stronger power profile in this matchup with 199 home runs and a .409 slugging percentage as a team. Ben Rice has emerged as a major force with 36 home runs and 88 RBIs while batting .256, and Cody Bellinger leads the club with a .266 average and a .344 OBP.
Queens Offensive Profile
The Mets have hit 181 home runs with a .394 slugging percentage this season, trailing the Yankees but still fielding a productive lineup. Juan Soto leads the club with 24 home runs while batting .275, Bo Bichette has driven in a team-high 73 runs, and Carson Benge has added a .272 average with a .335 OBP and .409 slugging percentage.
Betting Trends: NYM vs NYY
Mets Trends
New York's National League club has won four straight games and leads the season series 2-1 after taking two of three in May, including a 7-6 extra-inning win. Despite the recent streak, public betting money has leaned heavily toward the Yankees on both the moneyline and total throughout the pregame window.
Yankees Trends
The Yankees have won three straight games and own an excellent 57-38 record in night games this season. Public support has been strong on New York's American League club, with betting percentages reaching as high as 83% on the moneyline in the lead-up to first pitch.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: NYM vs NYY
Mets Injuries
Mets third baseman Brett Baty is day-to-day, while relievers Cionel Perez, Devin Williams, Reed Garrett and Jorge Polanco remain unavailable. The bullpen absences could be significant if the game turns into a late-inning battle.
Yankees Injuries
The Yankees are missing Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham, which removes significant power and outfield depth from the lineup. Ryan Weathers, Fernando Cruz and Clarke Schmidt are also sidelined, thinning New York's pitching depth heading into this series.
Mets vs Yankees Side and Over/Under Picks
Yankees Side Pick
- Pick: Yankees -142 (Moneyline)
- Reasoning: With two starters carrying ERAs near 3.00 and the Yankees holding the stronger power profile and home-field advantage, the moneyline offers better value than chasing a bigger run-line number.
Yankees Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8 (-108)
- Reasoning: McLean and Rodon both carry ERAs near 3.00, and the better value in this matchup favors run prevention over either offense breaking through in bulk.
Final Score Prediction
- NY Mets: 2
- NY Yankees: 4
Strong starting pitching on both sides keeps this Subway Series opener low-scoring, with the Yankees' power and home-field edge proving decisive late.
How to Wager On Mets vs Yankees
Bettors looking to build out this Subway Series matchup have several tools available beyond the standard sportsbook line. For those comparing model-driven projections against the market on this game, checking AI picks can help confirm a side or total before placing a wager. Readers who want a deeper look at data-driven modeling for a tight pitching matchup like McLean versus Rodon can also review the Dimers review or the Oddible review for additional context on how each platform grades this game. Combining that research with the line movement and public betting data above gives bettors a fuller picture before backing the moneyline or total in this Subway Series opener.
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