New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Picks and Predictions for Sunday April 5, 2026
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The New York Mets visit the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park in San Francisco, California, on Sunday, April 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 PM, and the game will air on MLB.TV. The Giants are listed at -120 on the moneyline, while the Mets come in at +100. The total is set at 7.5, with the over priced at +104 and the under at -125. On the run line, New York is -1.5 at +162 and San Francisco is +1.5 at -198. For more betting coverage on this matchup, readers should also check out free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers in Focus
Kodai Senga takes the mound for New York after opening with a 0-1 record, a 3.00 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP over 6.0 innings. He allowed four hits, struck out nine, walked three, and did not allow a home run. Logan Webb starts for San Francisco and comes in at 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 11.0 innings. He has allowed 12 hits, struck out 12, walked five, and has not surrendered a home run.
New York Brings Solid Pitching Into the Finale
The Mets are 4-4 overall and 2-3 on the road entering this game. Over their last five games, New York recently won over San Francisco and St. Louis, while recently losing to San Francisco once and St. Louis twice. That recent stretch has been uneven, but the Mets did pick up a convincing 10-3 win in the most recent meeting of this series.
New York is batting .230 with 35 runs, 64 hits, and eight home runs. The Mets have a .327 on-base percentage and a .378 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff has been strong, posting a 2.89 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP while holding opponents to a .223 batting average. They have also recorded 79 strikeouts and 30 walks.
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The biggest strength for New York is clearly the pitching staff. A 2.89 ERA and .223 opponent batting average stand out, and the 79 strikeouts show that the staff has consistently generated swing-and-miss. That profile gives the Mets a strong base in a game with a low total.
San Francisco Looks to Respond at Home
San Francisco comes into this contest at 3-5 overall and 1-4 at home. Over the last five games, the Giants recently lost to New York and San Diego once each, while recently beating New York once and San Diego twice. They have shown flashes, but the home record has been a problem early in the season.
The Giants are hitting .218 with 24 runs, 57 hits, and four home runs. Their on-base percentage sits at .281 and their slugging percentage is .318. On the mound, San Francisco has a 4.31 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, while opponents are batting .240 against them. The staff has 75 strikeouts and 29 walks.
A major weakness for San Francisco has been the offense. The Giants are hitting .218 with only four home runs and a .318 slugging percentage, which has limited their ability to put pressure on opposing staffs. In a matchup against a team with strong pitching numbers, that could be an issue again.
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Picks and Prediction
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Pick
Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
New York has the edge here based on the stronger team pitching numbers and the more favorable starting matchup. The Mets have been much more effective on the mound overall, and their starter opened with a 3.00 ERA and nine strikeouts across 6.0 innings. San Francisco has struggled more offensively and its starter brings a 7.36 ERA into this game, so the Mets look like the better value side.
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants Total Pick
Pick: Under 7.5
I lean to the under here because New York’s pitching has been the best unit in this matchup, with a 2.89 ERA and a .223 opponent batting average. San Francisco’s offense has also been light, posting just 24 runs and a .318 slugging percentage. Even though the Mets scored 10 runs in the last meeting, the overall team profiles point toward a tighter game this time around.
Final Score Prediction: New York Mets 4 – San Francisco Giants 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Saturday.
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