New York Mets vs Texas Rangers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Mets vs Rangers prediction has the road underdog holding the edges that matter most. The three-game series wraps up at Globe Life Field with first pitch at 2:35 PM ET, and New York has already won the first two games, 6-3 and 7-2. Texas is still favored at home, now around -135 on the moneyline, while the Mets sit at +112 and the total is 8 runs. The records favor the Rangers at 78-80 against New York's 73-85, but the pitching matchup points the other way. Zac Thornton brings a 3.40 ERA and 1.15 WHIP against Kumar Rocker's 4.47 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. For more daily edges across the league, check out our full board of MLB picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: New York Mets Moneyline (+112)
- Total Pick: Over 8 (-115)
- Projected Final Score: Mets 5, Rangers 4
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | +112 | Over 8 (-115) |
| Texas Rangers | -135 | Under 8 (-105) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | NY Mets | Texas | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +112 | -135 | NYM 82%, TEX 58% |
| 09/23 | +109 | -131 |
The moneyline has only moved once, but the betting split shows a clear divide. Texas opened at -131 and has moved to -135, while the Mets went from +109 to +112. The Rangers have 58% of the tickets, so more bettors are backing the home favorite. The money tells a different story: 82% of the handle is on New York. When a minority of bets accounts for most of the money, bigger bettors are usually on that side. The price moving toward Texas anyway is a gift for Mets backers, who now get +112 instead of the opening +109.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 8 (-115) | 8 (-105) | OV 100%, OV 67% |
| 09/24 | 8 (-117) | 8 (-103) | OV 50%, UN 67% |
| 09/23 | 8 (-118) | 8 (-102) |
The total opened at 8 with the Over at -118, so the market was leaning Over from the start. The first betting split showed the money evenly divided at 50% and 67% of the tickets on the Under, and the Over juice eased slightly to -117. The latest update flipped hard: 100% of the money and 67% of the tickets are now on the Over. Even so, the Over price has come down to -115. Over bettors are getting a slightly cheaper price than at the open while the betting action has moved firmly their way. That is a good spot to buy.
Mets vs Rangers Key Matchups and Game Preview
New York has dominated this series. The Mets won 6-3 in the opener and 7-2 on Wednesday, scoring 13 runs and allowing just five. Texas has the better overall record at 78-80, but the Rangers have looked like the weaker team for two straight days. Thursday's pitching matchup gives the Mets another edge, and the injury reports on both sides put extra weight on the starters to go deep.
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Mets Lefty Zac Thornton Gets the Ball
Zac Thornton has put together a quietly effective season for New York. The left-hander is 5-5 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 59 strikeouts across 79.1 innings. He keeps runners off base at a strong rate, which limits the scoring chances he gives opponents. His .500 record reflects the team he pitches for more than his own work, since his ERA and WHIP are both well ahead of his counterpart's.
Thornton isn't a big strikeout pitcher at 59 in 79.1 innings, so he relies on his defense. But when a pitcher allows so few baserunners, balls in play rarely turn into big innings.
Rangers Turn to Kumar Rocker
Kumar Rocker has had a rough season. He is 5-11 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 143 innings. The strikeout numbers are solid at 134, but the damage has been hard to ignore: he has allowed 144 hits, 59 walks and 20 home runs. That is more than a hit per inning, with walks and home runs on top.
Rocker has pitched a lot of innings, which matters for a Texas team short on healthy relievers. The problem is what happens during those innings. A pitcher who allows this much traffic and this many home runs is a tough bet as a home favorite, especially against a lineup that has scored 13 runs in two days.
New York Holds the Power Edge
The two offenses are close, but the Mets have a slight advantage. New York has scored 681 runs and hit 197 home runs compared with Texas at 658 runs and 176 homers. That is 23 more runs and 21 more home runs for the Mets. The slugging numbers are almost identical, with Texas at .395 and New York at .394. The home run gap is the key figure here, because Rocker has already allowed 20 homers this season.
Mets Lineup Anchors: Soto and Benge
Juan Soto remains the centerpiece of the New York lineup. He is hitting .276 with 27 home runs and 68 RBIs, and he is the most dangerous bat Rocker will face. With Rocker's walk and hit totals putting runners on base, Soto has a good chance to hit with men aboard. Carson Benge gives the lineup a reliable table-setter, batting .275 with a .338 on-base percentage. Getting Benge on base in front of Soto is the easiest path to a big inning for the Mets.
Texas Bats: Burger and Nimmo
The Rangers still have bats that can hurt Thornton. Jake Burger leads the team with 27 home runs and 89 RBIs, and his power is the biggest threat to a pitcher who relies on contact. Brandon Nimmo adds on-base ability near the top of the lineup, hitting .261 with a .326 OBP. Texas will need both to produce, especially with Joc Pederson and his 26 homers out of the lineup.
Mets Have Controlled the Series
The first two games were not close. New York won by three runs and then by five, outscoring Texas 13-5. The Mets have hit well in this park and pitched well enough to keep the Rangers quiet. Both games also finished with nine total runs, which is over Thursday's number of 8. That supports both the Mets side and the Over.
Why the Rangers Are Overpriced at Home
Texas is -135 because of its better record and home field, but that price overlooks the matchup. Rocker has the worse ERA, the worse WHIP and a long list of hits, walks and home runs allowed. The Rangers have lost both games of the series and are missing a key power bat. When the underdog has the better starter, the recent results and most of the betting money, +112 is a price worth taking.
NYM vs TEX Betting Trends
Mets Trends
- New York enters Thursday at 73-85.
- The Mets won the first two games of this series, 6-3 and 7-2.
- New York has outscored Texas 13-5 in the series.
- Zac Thornton owns a 3.40 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 79.1 innings.
- The Mets have drawn 82% of the moneyline handle.
- New York's moneyline price has moved from +109 to +112.
Rangers Trends
- Texas enters Thursday at 78-80.
- The Rangers have lost both games of this series.
- Kumar Rocker is 5-11 with a 4.47 ERA over 143 innings.
- Rocker has allowed 144 hits, 59 walks and 20 home runs.
- Texas holds 58% of the moneyline tickets but just 18% of the money.
- Both games in this series finished with nine total runs, over the current total of 8.
NYM vs TEX Key Injuries and Things To Know
New York Injury Report
- Christian Scott – Out (pitcher, key rotation absence)
- Daniel Duarte – Out (hamstring, 2.12 ERA before injury)
- Robert Stock – Out (pitcher)
- Jared Young – Out
- Jorge Polanco – Out
Texas Injury Report
- Joc Pederson – Out (hand, 26 home runs)
- Kyle Higashioka – Out (catcher)
- Jack Leiter – Out (ankle)
- Multiple relievers – Injured List
Things To Know About the Mets and Rangers
Both teams are short on pitching depth. The Mets are without Christian Scott in the rotation, and Daniel Duarte's hamstring injury takes away a reliever who had a 2.12 ERA. Robert Stock is also out. On offense, New York is missing Jared Young and Jorge Polanco, but the core of Soto and Benge is still in place.
The Rangers' injuries may matter more on Thursday. Losing Joc Pederson removes a power bat with 26 home runs from a lineup that already trails New York in homers. Kyle Higashioka is out at catcher, and Jack Leiter is sidelined with an ankle injury. Texas also has several relievers on the injured list, which puts extra pressure on Rocker to work deep. If he struggles early, the Rangers have few good options behind him, and that helps both the Mets and the Over.
Mets vs Rangers Side and Over/Under Picks
New York Moneyline Pick
The side pick is New York Mets Moneyline (+112). The Mets have the better starter, the slightly better offense, the momentum from two straight wins and the support of the bigger bets. Thornton's 1.15 WHIP against Rocker's 1.42 WHIP is the key gap. Thornton keeps runners off base, while Rocker has allowed far too many hits, walks and home runs.
The moneyline is the right way to back New York because you get plus money on a team that doesn't need a big margin. The price has also improved from +109 to +112 as the public backed Texas. With 82% of the money on the Mets, the betting market's most important signal points the same way as the matchup.
Over Pick for New York at Texas
The total pick is Over 8 (-115). Rocker's numbers make him a strong candidate to allow runs. He has given up 144 hits, 59 walks and 20 home runs, and the Mets have already scored 13 runs in two games. Texas also has a thin bullpen, so if Rocker exits early, the Rangers will need relievers who are short on depth.
The Mets bullpen is thinned too without Duarte. Burger's power gives Texas a real chance to score against Thornton, even though he has pitched well. Both games in this series finished with nine runs, and 100% of the money is now on the Over, while the Over price has come down from its -118 opening. That gives Over bettors a slightly better price on the side the market has moved toward.
Mets vs Rangers Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Mets 5, Rangers 4
- Winner: New York Mets
- Moneyline: Mets +112 cashes
- Total: 9 runs, Over 8 hits
Rocker's traffic problems should give the Mets chances early, with Soto and Benge doing most of the damage. Burger and Nimmo should get Texas on the board against Thornton, and the Rangers can keep it close. In the end, New York's edge in starting pitching and its steady production in this series should be enough for the sweep. A 5-4 Mets win cashes the moneyline and the Over.
How to Wager On Mets vs Rangers
This matchup offers a clear plan for bettors: back the better starter at plus money. The Mets at +112 give you the pitcher with the lower ERA and WHIP, a lineup that has already scored 13 runs in the series and the support of the larger bets. There's no need to take on extra risk with a run line when the moneyline already pays better than even.
The Over 8 fits the same game script. Rocker's hit, walk and home run numbers, along with injured bullpens on both sides, point toward a game in the 9-run range, just like the first two contests. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Mets moneyline with the Over in a same-game parlay, since a New York win in a higher-scoring game helps both legs. Watch the moneyline before first pitch, because the price has moved toward Texas, and the Mets number could get even better. Lock in your bets before the 2:35 PM ET first pitch.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you find edges across the MLB board.
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