New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
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Thursday night brings one of baseball's most storied rivalries to Fenway Park, and this edition has a clear betting lean built into it before the first pitch is thrown. The New York Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET, and our latest MLB picks identify the run line as the sharpest entry point in a game defined by one of the most dominant starting pitching performances of the 2026 season. New York enters at 48-31 and leads the AL East, while Boston sits at 32-46 and is 15.5 games back — a gap that tells most of the story before you even look at the pitching matchup. With Cam Schlittler taking the ball and the Yankees run line priced at -104, the value is right there for the taking.
Quick Picks and Prediction
TLDR: Here is everything you need to know before betting Thursday's Yankees-Red Sox matchup.
- Side Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-104)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 5, Red Sox 1
Odds and Line Movement
The Yankees have attracted overwhelming public support throughout the tracking window, drawing 99 to 100 percent of moneyline dollars across every update from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Despite that volume, the line has moved significantly — New York opened at -156 Wednesday afternoon and has been bet up all the way to -176 by Thursday morning, a 20-point move that reflects the scale of the money coming in on the Yankees side. The total has been a more balanced market in the Thursday morning window, with the under drawing 52 to 57 percent of dollars after heavy over action earlier in the overnight period. Below are the full line movement tables from tracked data.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Yankees | -176 | -1.5 (-104) | Over 7.5 (-117) |
| Boston Red Sox | +145 | +1.5 | Under 7.5 (-103) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | NY Yankees | Boston | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 01:35:30AM | -176 | +145 | NYY 99%, NYY 73% |
| 06/25 | 01:33:40AM | -185 | +152 | NYY 99%, NYY 73% |
| 06/25 | 01:32:40AM | -194 | +159 | NYY 99%, NYY 73% |
| 06/25 | 01:25:30AM | -183 | +151 | NYY 99%, NYY 70% |
| 06/25 | 01:03:20AM | -173 | +143 | NYY 99%, NYY 70% |
| 06/25 | 01:02:40AM | -182 | +150 | NYY 99%, NYY 70% |
| 06/25 | 12:55:50AM | -172 | +142 | NYY 99%, NYY 68% |
| 06/24 | 11:23:49PM | -162 | +134 | NYY 100%, NYY 68% |
| 06/24 | 10:04:50PM | -157 | +130 | NYY 100%, NYY 69% |
| 06/24 | 07:29:42PM | -156 | +129 | NYY 100%, NYY 100% |
| 06/24 | 06:23:06PM | -163 | +135 | - |
| 06/24 | 05:12:06PM | -156 | +129 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/25 | 08:27:41AM | 7.5 -117 | 7.5 -103 | UN 52%, OV 71% |
| 06/25 | 08:20:41AM | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 | UN 52%, OV 71% |
| 06/25 | 08:19:52AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | UN 52%, OV 71% |
| 06/25 | 08:17:41AM | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:17:21AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:16:52AM | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:14:21AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:14:01AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -102 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:08:02AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:07:41AM | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:06:42AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 08:03:51AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -101 | UN 57%, OV 67% |
| 06/25 | 06:14:41AM | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 | UN 57%, OV 63% |
| 06/25 | 06:08:33AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 06:07:53AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -101 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 06:04:13AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 05:11:43AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 05:10:43AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -101 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 05:09:03AM | 7.5 -119 | 7.5 -101 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 05:04:44AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 | OV 98%, OV 77% |
| 06/25 | 03:21:12AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -101 | OV 98%, OV 75% |
| 06/25 | 03:16:52AM | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 | OV 98%, OV 75% |
Yankees vs Red Sox Key Matchups and Game Preview
The Yankees hold a 4-1 advantage in the season series, with their four wins coming by scores of 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, and 6-1. That pattern of one-sided results in New York's favor is not a coincidence — it reflects a talent gap that Thursday's pitching matchup amplifies rather than corrects.
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Schlittler's Dominant Season
Cam Schlittler is putting together one of the more impressive starting pitcher seasons in the American League, and his numbers are not the product of a soft schedule or inflated run support. Through 95 innings, Schlittler is 8-3 with a 1.71 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP — the kind of WHIP that is typically associated with Cy Young candidates rather than a mid-season rotation arm. He has allowed just 67 hits across those 95 innings while striking out 109 and walking only 18, giving him one of the cleanest strikeout-to-walk ratios of any starter in the league. Five home runs in nearly 100 innings rounds out a profile that gives Boston's lineup almost no margin for error. Against a Red Sox offense with 67 team home runs — third-lowest in the AL — and a .312 OBP, Schlittler's ability to limit traffic and strike hitters out is an overwhelming structural advantage. The run line at -104 backing this starter against a struggling Boston lineup is among the best-priced entries on the Thursday night slate.
Early's Home Run Vulnerability
Connelly Early has been a serviceable starter for Boston this season, and his 6-5 record with a 3.64 ERA across 81.2 innings is not a liability in most matchups. The concern Thursday is specific: Early has allowed 14 home runs in those 81.2 innings, and he faces a Yankees lineup that has slugged 119 home runs as a team — one of the highest totals in the American League. A starter who allows 14 home runs in 81 innings is surrendering a home run roughly every 5.8 innings, and against a New York lineup built around power production, that rate is likely to be exploited. Early's 1.27 WHIP is manageable, but the combination of the home run rate and the opposing lineup's power profile makes him a difficult pitcher to back in this spot regardless of his overall season numbers.
Yankees Offensive Power
New York's lineup is the most powerful unit Boston will face all season, and that remains true even with Aaron Judge on the injured list. The Yankees have slugged 119 home runs as a team with 400 runs scored, a .329 OBP and .437 slugging percentage — a profile that leads the American League in multiple categories. Ben Rice has stepped up as the primary run producer in Judge's absence, batting .286 with a .378 OBP and .594 slugging percentage while delivering 22 home runs and 53 RBIs. That kind of production from a player filling in for the team's best hitter reflects the depth of the New York lineup, and it is exactly the kind of dangerous middle-of-the-order presence that Early's home run rate will struggle to contain. The Yankees do not need Judge to win this game — they have the lineup depth to score multiple runs in multiple innings against a starter who allows home runs at an elevated rate.
Boston's Offensive Limitations
The Red Sox are a below-average offensive club in 2026, and the numbers reflect a team that struggles to generate runs against quality starting pitching. Boston has hit 67 home runs as a team — significantly fewer than New York's 119 — and has scored just 307 runs with a .312 OBP and .385 slugging percentage. Against Schlittler's 0.89 WHIP and five home runs allowed in 95 innings, the Red Sox are going to have an extremely difficult time generating sustained offense. Willson Contreras leads the lineup with 16 home runs and 46 RBIs, and Ceddanne Rafaela is the most consistent contact hitter at .286 with a .334 OBP and .451 slugging percentage. Both are legitimate threats in individual at-bats, but Schlittler's profile — particularly his 109 strikeouts and exceptional ability to limit extra-base contact — gives Boston's offense minimal runway even when individual hitters make contact.
Betting Trends - NYY and BOS
The moneyline movement in this game is one of the most dramatic line shifts on the Thursday slate. New York opened at -156 Wednesday afternoon and has been bet up continuously through the overnight window, reaching as high as -194 in one update before settling at -176 as of the most recent tracked data. That 20-point net move from opener to current reflects sustained, high-volume public and possibly sharp money coming in on the Yankees side. The ticket split of 68 to 73 percent for New York across Thursday morning updates confirms the public is firmly behind the Yankees, and the dollar percentages of 99 to 100 percent throughout the entire tracking window are as lopsided as you will find in any regular-season game.
The total market tells a more nuanced story. Through the early overnight window, the over drew 98 percent of both dollars and tickets consistently, pushing the under juice toward -101 and -120 on the over side. Then, beginning around 6:14 a.m. Thursday, the under started attracting the majority of dollars — moving from 57 percent to a stable split through the morning updates. That shift from heavy over money to under money as the morning progressed is the kind of reversal that often signals sharp under backing correcting an over-inflated number. Schlittler's 1.71 ERA does not produce 8-run games, and a projected Yankees 5-1 win sits comfortably under 7.5.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NYY and BOS
Aaron Judge's absence from the Yankees lineup is the most significant injury note in this matchup and deserves direct acknowledgment. Judge is the best player in baseball when healthy, and his placement on the injured list removes the most dangerous bat from New York's order. However, as Ben Rice's .594 slugging percentage demonstrates, the Yankees have not collapsed offensively without him. The lineup still ranks among the most powerful in the AL by team home runs and slugging percentage, and the pitching advantage with Schlittler is large enough that the Yankees do not need maximum offensive output to cover -1.5.
New York is also missing Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan McMahon, Trent Grisham, Travis MacGregor, and Ali Sanchez on paternity leave, which reduces both lineup depth and bullpen options. Those absences matter most if Schlittler exits earlier than expected, as the available relief depth behind him is thinner than a full-roster Yankees bullpen would be.
Boston has its own injury concerns with Marcelo Mayer and Caleb Durbin both listed as day-to-day, which should be confirmed before first pitch given their roles in the lineup. Patrick Sandoval, Jovani Moran, and Romy Gonzalez are all unavailable, further thinning the Red Sox bullpen. If Early exits with a high pitch count early in the game, Boston's ability to protect a close score in the middle innings is compromised by the same bullpen depth losses that have hurt them throughout the season.
Yankees vs Red Sox Side and Over/Under Picks
Side Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-104)
The run line at -104 is the correct structure for this wager. Laying -1.5 at near-even money with Schlittler on the mound — a starter with a 1.71 ERA and 0.89 WHIP — against a Boston lineup that has scored 307 runs and hit 67 home runs is as clean a run line entry as you will find on the slate. The Yankees have won four of five in the season series, three of those four by margins of two runs or more. Back the run line and avoid the -176 moneyline tax.
Total Pick: Under 7.5
Schlittler's profile alone is enough to recommend the under in most matchups. A starter who has allowed five home runs in 95 innings against a Red Sox team that ranks among the lower-powered offenses in the AL is not a recipe for a high-scoring game. The under money has been correcting the over-inflated early action through the Thursday morning window, and a projected 5-1 final score sits two runs below the number. Take the under while the juice remains manageable at -103.
Final Score Prediction
Schlittler works efficiently through the Boston lineup, limiting Contreras and Rafaela to isolated contact without the multi-hit rallies required to generate meaningful run totals. Early's home run rate is exposed in the middle innings by New York's power-heavy lineup, with Rice or another slugger in the order finding a pitch to drive for extra bases. The Yankees build a lead through the fifth inning and the bullpen protects it despite the depth limitations, completing another dominant series win at Fenway.
Projected Final Score: New York Yankees 5, Boston Red Sox 1
How to Wager On Yankees vs Red Sox
Run line wagers on dominant starting pitchers at near-even money are one of the highest-value plays in baseball betting, and Thursday's game is a textbook example. The Yankees at -1.5 for -104 is a structurally superior bet to the -176 moneyline — you are getting significantly better implied odds with a starter who has a 0.89 WHIP taking the mound against a lineup that scores fewer than four runs per game. Understanding when the run line outperforms the moneyline is the kind of edge that separates profitable bettors from breakeven bettors, and this game illustrates the concept clearly.
For bettors who want data-driven confirmation before committing to a run line in a rivalry game, AI picks are worth incorporating as a cross-reference. Models that process ERA, WHIP, team slugging, and head-to-head series results can quantify the edge that Schlittler's profile provides against this specific Boston lineup in a way that adds conviction to what the manual analysis already shows.
Two platforms worth adding to your betting toolkit for games like this one are detailed in the Dimers review and the Oddible review. Dimers builds win probability and run total models that are particularly useful when a dominant starter like Schlittler is involved and you want an independent projection for both the run line and the total. Oddible specializes in odds comparison, which matters here because the Yankees moneyline has moved 20 points since opening and the run line juice can vary meaningfully across books — finding -104 versus -110 on the same -1.5 number is real money over the course of a season. Both tools are worth having in your process for Thursday night rivalry spots with a clear pitching edge.
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