New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 31 2026
The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs open a marquee interleague series Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM ET. Chicago enters as a -157 moneyline favorite and is priced at +135 on the -1.5 run line, while New York is available at +130 and +1.5 runs at -163. If you are searching for more value on today's slate, check out our full MLB picks before locking in your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Cubs -1.5
- Total Pick: Under 9
- Final Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Yankees 3
Odds and Line Movement
Chicago has held firm as the favorite throughout the week, while the total has stayed anchored around nine runs with only minor fluctuation as gametime approaches. Here is the current market followed by the full line movement for both the run line and total.
Current Odds
| Market | New York Yankees | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +130 | -157 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | 9 (Over -115 / Under -105) | |
Line Movement
| Date | Time | NY Yankees | Chi. Cubs | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/31 | 01:11:30AM | +130 | -157 | CHC 69%, 54% |
| 07/31 | 01:11:30AM | +130 | -157 | CHC 76%, 53% |
| 07/31 | 01:11:30AM | +130 | -157 | CHC 71%, 50% |
| 07/31 | 01:11:30AM | +130 | -157 | CHC 52%, 50% |
| 07/30 | 10:09:09PM | +129 | -156 | NYY 65%, 65% |
| 07/30 | 10:09:09PM | +129 | -156 | NYY 73%, 69% |
| 07/30 | 08:21:41PM | +129 | -156 | NYY 92%, 80% |
| 07/30 | 08:21:41PM | +129 | -156 | NYY 92%, 80% |
| 07/30 | 05:57:13PM | +118 | -142 | NYY 92%, 84% |
| 07/30 | 04:53:23PM | +118 | -142 | NYY 94%, 89% |
| 07/30 | 03:56:34PM | +118 | -142 | |
| 07/30 | 03:43:44PM | +113 | -136 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/31 | 08:29:38AM | 9o-115 | 9u-105 | O55%, NULL |
| 07/31 | 01:11:30AM | 9o-114 | 9u-105 | O55% |
| 07/30 | 10:09:09PM | 9o-118 | 9u-102 | U59% |
| 07/30 | 08:21:41PM | 9o-115 | 9u-105 | U60% |
| 07/30 | 05:57:13PM | 9o-118 | 9u-102 | |
| 07/30 | 04:53:23PM | 9o-110 | 9u-110 | |
| 07/30 | 03:43:44PM |
Yankees vs Cubs Key Matchups and Game Preview
Cubs Pitching Advantage
The starting-pitching matchup favors Chicago, as left-hander Shota Imanaga brings a 7-8 record, 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP into the contest. Imanaga has recorded 113 strikeouts against only 29 walks through 121 innings, giving the Cubs a reliable strike-thrower who should be capable of attacking a depleted Yankees lineup.
Yankees Starter Struggles
New York counters with Will Warren, who is 7-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 102 innings. Warren has struck out 102 batters, but his 36 walks, 108 hits allowed and higher WHIP suggest Chicago should have opportunities to produce baserunners throughout the afternoon.
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Chicago's Offensive Depth
The Cubs hold the offensive advantage in most major categories, batting .249 with a .340 on-base percentage and 564 runs, compared with New York's .233 average, .312 OBP and 506 runs. Pete Crow-Armstrong has paced Chicago with a .285 average, 24 home runs and 63 RBIs.
New York's Power and Bullpen Fatigue
The Yankees have supplied more raw power with 153 home runs, led by Ben Rice's 31 homers, 73 RBIs and .269 average. However, New York dropped the final two contests of its series against the White Sox, both in extra innings, potentially leaving the bullpen fatigued heading into this matchup. Chicago has won three of its last four games after taking three of four in St. Louis, giving the home club momentum on its side.
Betting Trends: NYY and CHC
Chicago's recent stretch, including a three-of-four showing in St. Louis, has helped support steady moneyline action on the Cubs throughout the week, with the line moving from +113 to +130 on New York as bettors continued to back Chicago. New York's back-to-back extra-inning losses to the White Sox have coincided with softer public confidence, even as the total has stayed anchored near nine runs across the week.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: NYY and CHC
New York's injury situation is a major concern entering this series. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton remain sidelined, removing two elite power threats, while Cody Bellinger is also unavailable with a hamstring injury. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is day-to-day after leaving Thursday's game with hamstring cramping, although the Yankees are hopeful he can return Friday. Chicago is missing relievers Ethan Roberts, Hoby Milner and Riley Martin, but its everyday lineup is considerably healthier.
Yankees vs Cubs Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+135)
- Total Pick: Under 9 (-105)
Imanaga's command, Chicago's deeper offense and New York's recent bullpen workload make the home team the stronger side on Friday afternoon.
Final Score Prediction
- Final Score: Cubs 5, Yankees 3
How to Wager On Yankees vs Cubs
Bettors looking to get down on Yankees vs Cubs have several tools available to help shape their picks. Our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup, while the Dimers review and Oddible review offer additional angles on the run line, total and moneyline markets for this series opener at Wrigley Field.
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