New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday June 23 2026
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Tuesday night at 6:40PM ET brings a compelling AL showdown as the New York Yankees try to stop the bleeding against a Detroit Tigers squad that has quietly reeled off four straight wins and just handed New York a 5-3 loss to open this series. If you are building out your full Tuesday card, the latest MLB picks have you covered across the entire slate. Here is the full breakdown on whether to back the Yankees as road favorites or ride Detroit's momentum at home.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Best Bet: Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-180)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5
- Moneyline Lean: Tigers -102 (home underdog with value)
- Projected Final Score: Tigers 4, Yankees 3
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -118 |
| Detroit Tigers | -102 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | NY Yankees | Detroit | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 01:12:35AM | -118 | -102 | NYY 100%, NYY 81% |
| 06/22 | 11:24:43PM | -115 | -105 | NYY 100%, NYY 79% |
| 06/22 | 10:39:23PM | -118 | -102 | NYY 100%, NYY 86% |
| 06/22 | 05:25:04PM | -115 | -105 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/22 | 11:24:43PM | 7½ -110 | 7½ -110 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 06/22 | 09:35:14PM | 7½ -111 | 7½ -108 | UN 100%, UN 100% |
| 06/22 | 05:25:04PM | 7½ -114 | 7½ -106 |
Yankees vs Tigers Key Matchups and Game Preview
The pitching matchup is where this game starts and ends. Casey Mize has been one of the more underappreciated starters in the American League this season, and his numbers back it up: a 2.58 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across 52.1 innings, with 52 strikeouts, just 13 walks, and only three home runs allowed. Mize's 4-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio reflects a pitcher who attacks the zone, avoids free baserunners, and does not beat himself. His ability to limit home runs is particularly relevant against a Yankees lineup that has slugged 115 home runs as a team — Mize simply does not give up the ball in the air often enough to let that power play.
Carlos Rodon enters this start at 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP across 36 innings. He has struck out 41 batters, but the 20 walks he has issued are a serious concern against a Detroit lineup that is in the middle of a four-game winning streak and carrying real offensive momentum. Rodon does not need to get hammered to lose this game — he simply needs to put a few Tigers on base, and Riley Greene or Dillon Dingler will do the rest. Greene is hitting .292 with a .385 OBP and a .445 slugging percentage, and Dingler has delivered 18 home runs and 55 RBIs. This is a lineup that can make a pitcher pay for walks, and Rodon's command history makes that a legitimate concern.
New York's offensive profile is strong on paper. The Yankees lead Detroit in virtually every major offensive category, with 392 runs scored, 115 home runs, a .331 OBP, and a .437 slugging percentage as a team. Ben Rice has been the engine of that offense, posting 22 home runs, 53 RBIs, a .288 average, a .383 OBP, and a .607 slugging percentage. But several of the names that give this lineup its depth and versatility are unavailable Tuesday, and that changes how much faith to put in the raw season numbers.
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Detroit just held this same Yankees lineup to three runs in Monday's opener, and Mize's profile suggests Tuesday will not look much different. The Tigers are at home, they have won four in a row, and they have a starting pitcher with a better ERA, a better WHIP, and far better command than his opponent. The Yankees are slight road favorites, but the market is not reflecting the full picture here.
Betting Trends - NYY and DET
The line movement on the moneyline is one of the more interesting setups on Tuesday's board. Public money has been hammering the Yankees at every logged interval — 100% of dollars on New York in all three tracked periods, with ticket percentages ranging from 79% to 86% backing the road favorite. Despite that lopsided public support, the number has oscillated between -115 and -118 rather than moving decisively toward -125 or beyond. When books absorb heavy public action without moving the line further, it is often a sign that sharp money is quietly coming in on the other side, keeping the number pinned.
The total tells a similarly sharp story. The under has drawn 100% of both dollars and tickets in the two most recent logged intervals, and the line has moved in the under's favor — opening the over at -114 juice on 06/22 and settling to a pick'em -110 / -110 split by the following night. That is the market responding to real money on the under, even as public bettors piled on. A total of 7.5 is already modest, and with Mize on the mound and key New York bats sidelined, the under has legitimate backing beyond just the public consensus.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - NYY and DET
The Yankees' injury list is the single most important contextual factor in this game. New York is without Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Trent Grisham — three bats that collectively represent a significant chunk of the lineup's power and on-base production. Ali Sanchez is listed as day-to-day, adding further uncertainty to the starting configuration. Max Fried also remains on the injured list, though his absence does not affect Tuesday's starting assignment.
Losing Judge and Stanton in the same game is not a minor inconvenience — it fundamentally changes New York's offensive ceiling. The Yankees' season-long power numbers are impressive, but a meaningful portion of that production is tied to players who will not be in the lineup Tuesday night. Rodon will need to be efficient and effective to pick up the slack, and his walk rate this season suggests that is not a certainty.
Detroit is missing Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez from the outfield, along with starters Jack Flaherty and Burch Smith. Those are real losses, but the Tigers have managed them well enough to win four straight games, and Mize has been performing at an elite level regardless of the surrounding roster situation. Detroit's injuries matter less in a game where their ace is dealing and the opponent is shorthanded.
Yankees vs Tigers Side and Over/Under Picks
- Best Bet — Tigers +1.5 (-180): Yes, -180 is a steep price on a run line for a home underdog, but the underlying case is strong. Mize has allowed just three home runs all season against a team missing Judge, Stanton, and Grisham. Detroit won Monday's game 5-3 and is in the middle of a four-game winning streak with real offensive momentum behind Greene and Dingler. Rodon's walk rate creates constant danger of putting runners on base against a lineup that knows how to cash in. The run line offers more cushion than the moneyline at -102, and the juice is justified given the pitching mismatch and injury context.
- Total Pick — Under 7.5: Two starters who miss bats, a modest total, a shorthanded Yankees lineup, and sharp money already sitting on the under at 100% of both dollars and tickets. The over opened with juice and the market has steadily corrected toward the under. A final score in the 4-3 or 3-2 range is exactly what the pitching matchup points toward. Take the under with confidence.
Final Score Prediction
Mize continues his strong stretch and limits New York's depleted lineup to two or three runs while working deep into the game. Rodon keeps Detroit manageable early but a walk or two in the middle innings leads to a multi-run frame that gives the Tigers a lead they do not relinquish. The Yankees threaten late but cannot complete the comeback without their full complement of power bats.
Tigers 4, Yankees 3
How to Wager On Yankees vs Tigers
Tuesday's game has two clean angles — a run-line play on a home underdog and a sharp-backed under in a low-scoring pitching matchup. Getting the best available number on both wagers is worth a few minutes of line shopping before first pitch at 6:40PM ET.
Before locking in the Tigers run line, it is worth running the matchup through a projection model to stress-test the under and validate the Detroit side. AI picks gives you a data-driven second opinion that factors in Mize's current form, Rodon's walk rate, and the Yankees' missing lineup pieces — exactly the variables that matter most in a game like this one.
The Tigers +1.5 price of -180 can vary by a few cents across books, and those differences add up over a full betting card. The Dimers review covers one of the best tools available for identifying where to find the sharpest number on run lines and totals across major sportsbooks before you commit.
The under here has drawn 100% of sharp dollars in consecutive tracked intervals while the public has largely stayed off it — which is a textbook spot for the Oddible review. Oddible is built to surface exactly these situations, where public sentiment and market movement are diverging, and the under 7.5 fits the profile cleanly.
Watch for any late lineup news on Ali Sanchez and confirm Mize is still on schedule before placing your bets. A healthy Sanchez adds depth to the Yankees order, but it does not change the core calculus of this game.
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