New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 24 2026
The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies open a three-game interleague series Friday evening, and this Yankees vs Phillies prediction breaks down the odds, matchups and betting value bettors need before first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. With Philadelphia sitting as a modest home favorite despite New York's stronger pitching profile, bettors chasing more value across the slate can check our MLB predictions hub for additional plays tonight.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: New York Yankees ML (+113)
- Total Pick: Under 8 (-103)
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Phillies 3
Odds and Line Movement
Philadelphia's moneyline has lengthened steadily since the market opened, moving from -126 Wednesday afternoon out to -136 by Friday morning, while New York has drifted from +104 up to +113 over the same stretch. The total has also moved lower, opening at 8Âœo-108/8Âœu-112 on Wednesday afternoon before settling at 8o-103/8u-117 heading into Friday's first pitch.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | +113 | O 8 (-103) / U 8 (-117) |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -136 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | NY Yankees | Philadelphia | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/24 | 07:09:48 AM | +113 | -136 | NYY 62%, 53% |
| 07/23 | 08:48:28 PM | +112 | -135 | NYY 60%, 53% |
| 07/23 | 08:48:28 PM | +112 | -135 | NYY 60%, 53% |
| 07/23 | 08:48:28 PM | +109 | -131 | NYY 66%, 57% |
| 07/23 | 08:48:28 PM | +109 | -131 | NYY 85%, 57% |
| 07/23 | 07:39:45 PM | +108 | -130 | NYY 87%, 57% |
| 07/23 | 05:24:15 PM | +109 | -131 | |
| 07/23 | 03:37:45 PM | |||
| 07/23 | 03:37:45 PM | |||
| 07/23 | 03:29:15 PM | +104 | -126 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/24 | 07:09:48 AM | 8o-103 | 8u-117 | O91%, NULL |
| 07/23 | 08:48:28 PM | 8o-105 | 8u-114 | O92%, NULL |
| 07/23 | 05:24:15 PM | 8o-105 | 8u-115 | |
| 07/23 | 03:37:45 PM | |||
| 07/23 | 03:29:15 PM | 8Âœo-108 | 8Âœu-112 |
Yankees vs Phillies Key Matchups and Game Preview
New York enters this series at 57-45, two games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East, while Philadelphia is 56-47 and sits 4.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East after losing three of their last five games. Despite the standings gap, the Phillies are priced as modest home favorites at -136.
Schlittler vs Luzardo
New York hands the ball to Cam Schlittler, who has been outstanding through 123 innings, posting a 9-6 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. The right-hander has recorded 145 strikeouts against only 25 walks while allowing 93 hits and 12 home runs, giving the Yankees a meaningful starting-pitching advantage despite their underdog price. Philadelphia counters with Jesus Luzardo, who is 9-4 with a 3.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 143 strikeouts across 115.1 innings. Luzardo has also limited opponents to 10 home runs, but his 37 walks and higher baserunner rate could create scoring chances for a Yankees lineup that has demonstrated more power than its overall batting average suggests.
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Yankees Offense
New York and Philadelphia are both hitting .236, although the Yankees hold advantages in runs scored, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. New York has produced 480 runs and 147 homers with a .315 on-base percentage and .420 slugging mark. Ben Rice has emerged as New York's primary offensive threat, batting .277 with 30 home runs, 71 RBIs, a .366 OBP and a .590 slugging percentage.
Phillies Offense
Philadelphia has scored 448 runs with 135 home runs, a .303 OBP and a .402 slugging percentage. Kyle Schwarber leads Philadelphia with 33 homers, while Brandon Marsh owns a team-best .292 average.
New York's Pitching Edge
The Phillies own the stronger team strikeout total, but New York's 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are considerably better than Philadelphia's 4.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. With Schlittler producing ace-level numbers and the Yankees possessing the stronger overall pitching profile, the plus-money road price offers value despite their offensive injuries.
NYY and PHI Betting Trends
Philadelphia's moneyline has continued to lengthen throughout the week even as the Phillies remain favored, a sign the market still respects New York's superior starting pitching. The total's steady drop from 8œ to 8 reflects growing confidence that Schlittler and a stronger Yankees pitching staff can keep this game under the number.
NYY and PHI Key Injuries and Things To Know
The Yankees' lineup is weakened by the absences of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, removing two major power bats, while Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt remain unavailable to the rotation. Philadelphia could be without catcher Rafael Marchan and has bullpen concerns with Tanner Banks, Lou Trivino and Brad Keller sidelined, potentially creating a late-game disadvantage.
Yankees vs Phillies Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: New York Yankees ML (+113)
- Total Pick: Under 8 (-103)
With Schlittler producing ace-level numbers and the Yankees possessing the stronger overall pitching profile, the plus-money road price offers value despite their offensive injuries, and the pitching matchup favors a lower-scoring outcome.
Final Score Prediction
- Yankees 4, Phillies 3
How to Wager On Yankees vs Phillies
Bettors weighing New York on the moneyline or leaning toward the Under in this interleague opener have several tools available to help sharpen the process before placing a wager. Our AI picks hub compiles model-driven projections for spots like this one, while a closer look at the Dimers review and the Oddible review can help bettors compare how different projection systems are pricing Schlittler's advantage over Luzardo. Given the steady movement on both the moneyline and total, shopping for the best number on New York plus-money or Under 8 before first pitch is worth the extra effort in a series where the Yankees' pitching edge stands out.
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