New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction for Monday October 5 2026
The New York Yankees visit the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on Monday, October 5, 2026, for Game 2 of the American League Division Series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET with coverage on TBS and truTV. New York finished the regular season 93-68 overall and 47-34 on the road, while Tampa Bay went 98-64 overall and an impressive 55-26 at home. The Rays lead the series 1-0 after shutting out the Yankees 1-0 in Game 1. DraftKings lists New York at -131 on the moneyline, with Tampa Bay at +109, while the Yankees are +141 at -1.5 runs and the Rays are -171 at +1.5. The total is 6.5 runs, with the Over at -115 and Under at -105. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.
Starting Pitchers
New York is scheduled to start Cam Schlittler, who enters at 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and outstanding 0.47 WHIP through 6.1 postseason innings. The right-hander has allowed only two hits and one walk while striking out 10 without surrendering a home run. Those numbers give the Yankees a legitimate opportunity to answer Tampa Bay's Game 1 shutout with an excellent pitching performance of their own.
Tampa Bay counters with Freddy Peralta, although no individual postseason statistics were listed for the right-hander in the information available for this matchup. Peralta steps into a favorable situation after Tampa Bay held New York scoreless in the opener. With the total sitting at only 6.5 runs, the betting market is again expecting pitching to play a significant role.
New York Looks to Even the Series
The Yankees enter Game 2 after their offense was completely shut down in Saturday's 1-0 loss. That result followed an impressive offensive stretch in which New York scored nine runs in consecutive victories over Boston and six in a win over Baltimore. The Yankees had scored 24 runs during their previous three victories before being held scoreless by Tampa Bay.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
New York finished with a .235 team batting average, 739 runs, 1,250 hits and 223 home runs. The Yankees posted a .311 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. The batting average and on-base percentage lag behind Tampa Bay, but New York owns a substantial power advantage with 54 more home runs while also finishing with three more runs despite playing one fewer regular-season game.
Pitching was a major strength for New York. The Yankees posted a 3.24 team ERA and 1.17 WHIP while holding opponents to a .224 batting average. They also recorded 1,450 strikeouts against 488 walks. Those numbers compare favorably with Tampa Bay, and another strong performance from the pitching staff could give New York the opportunity to even the series even if the offense doesn't completely rebound.
Tampa Bay Tries to Protect Home Field Again
Tampa Bay took control of the series with a 1-0 victory in Game 1 and now has an opportunity to take a commanding 2-0 advantage before the series shifts to New York. The Rays finished five games ahead of the Yankees in the win column and were especially difficult to beat at Tropicana Field, going 55-26 at home during the regular season.
The Rays hit .258 with 736 runs, 1,405 hits and 169 home runs while producing a .326 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay holds significant advantages over New York in batting average, hits and on-base percentage, but the Rays don't possess the same home-run power. That difference could become important in another matchup where scoring opportunities are expected to be limited.
Tampa Bay finished with a 3.70 ERA and excellent 1.14 WHIP while holding opponents to a .229 batting average. The Rays recorded 1,322 strikeouts against only 409 walks. Tampa Bay doesn't have New York's ERA or strikeout advantage, but its ability to limit baserunners was excellent throughout the season and carried directly into the 1-0 Game 1 victory.
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Picks and Prediction
Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline (-131)
New York -131 is the side pick. Tampa Bay's 55-26 home record and Game 1 victory deserve respect, but the Yankees have the pitching profile to respond. New York finished with a 3.24 ERA and .224 opponent batting average, while Schlittler enters with a 0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP and 10 strikeouts through 6.1 postseason innings. The Yankees also hit 54 more home runs than Tampa Bay during the regular season, giving them a significant power advantage in a game where one swing could decide the outcome. At -131, I'll back New York to even the series.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-105)
The Under 6.5 is the total pick. Game 1 finished with only one run, and both teams enter with excellent pitching numbers. New York posted a 3.24 ERA and .224 opponent batting average, while Tampa Bay finished with a 1.14 WHIP and .229 opponent average. Schlittler's postseason numbers provide another strong reason to expect limited scoring, and Tampa Bay has allowed only seven runs over its last five games. The number is low, but another playoff game decided by pitching makes the Under the stronger play.
Final Picks: New York Yankees Moneyline (-131) and Under 6.5 (-105)
This preview was completed on October 4, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonuses
