Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday August 25 2026
My Phillies vs Mariners picks for Tuesday night favor Seattle, a team coming off a 9-2 win with a starting pitching edge behind George Kirby's superior control. For more plays across the league tonight, check out my MLB picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Seattle Mariners -112 moneyline
- Total Pick: Over 7.5
- Projected Final Score: Mariners 5, Phillies 4
Odds and Line Movement
Seattle opened as roughly a -120 moneyline favorite Monday afternoon and has settled in at -115 by late Monday night, while Philadelphia has moved from plus money and a brief -102 favorite spot back to -104. Public money has been heavily on the Phillies throughout, reaching as high as 91% of dollars wagered at one point. The total opened at 7.5 runs before drifting to 8 for most of the day, and the most recent line has settled back at 7.5 with the Over at -118 and the Under at -102, with public money leaning Under as high as 71% in the latest reading.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | -104 | Over 7.5 (-118) |
| Seattle Mariners | -115 | Under 7.25 (-102) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Philadelphia | Seattle | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/24 | -104 | -115 | PHI 89%, 56% |
| 08/24 | -104 | -115 | PHI 87%, 61% |
| 08/24 | +100 | -120 | -- |
| 08/24 | +100 | -120 | PHI 87%, 50% |
| 08/24 | +100 | -120 | PHI 88%, 93% |
| 08/24 | -102 | -118 | PHI 91%, 90% |
| 08/24 | +100 | -120 | -- |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/24 | 7.5 (-118) | 7.25 (-102) | U71%, U67% |
| 08/24 | 8 (-102) | 8 (-118) | -- |
| 08/24 | 8 (-101) | 8 (-119) | -- |
| 08/24 | 8 (-102) | 8 (-118) | -- |
| 08/24 | 8 (-106) | 8 (-113) | -- |
| 08/24 | 8 (-108) | 8 (-112) | -- |
| 08/24 | 8 (-107) | 8 (-112) | -- |
| 08/24 | 8 (-108) | 8 (-111) | -- |
| 08/24 | 7.5 (-131) | 7.25 (+109) | -- |
Phillies vs Mariners Key Matchups and Game Preview
Philadelphia
The Phillies are 73-59 and remain 3.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East after Monday's 9-2 loss in the series opener. Aaron Nola gets the ball carrying a 5-9 record with a 5.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 137 innings, with 146 strikeouts against 46 walks. Nola has allowed 148 hits and 31 home runs, making the long ball a major concern against a Seattle lineup with several legitimate power threats. Philadelphia has the stronger offensive profile in this matchup, batting .243 with 159 home runs, 601 runs and a .403 slugging percentage. Kyle Schwarber remains Philadelphia's biggest power threat with 39 home runs and 78 RBIs, while Brandon Marsh leads the club with a .274 average. The Phillies have Derek Hill listed day-to-day and catcher Rafael Marchan on the 10-day injured list.
Mariners
Seattle is 63-69 and three games back in the AL West, coming off a 9-2 win in the series opener that boosted the club's confidence. George Kirby counters for the Mariners at 8-10 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 140 innings. Kirby has allowed 157 hits but owns excellent control with only 33 walks, and his 17 home runs surrendered are nearly half of what Nola has given up. Seattle is hitting .230 as a team with 154 home runs, 522 runs and a .378 slugging percentage. Randy Arozarena paces the Mariners, batting .274 with 20 home runs, 58 RBIs, a .371 on-base percentage and .465 slugging percentage. Seattle is without shortstop J.P. Crawford, and starter Bryan Woo is listed day-to-day. The Mariners also own the slightly stronger overall pitching numbers with a 4.11 team ERA and 1.24 WHIP compared with Philadelphia's 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
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Betting Trends: PHI and SEA
- Seattle is coming off a 9-2 win in Monday's series opener.
- Philadelphia remains 3.5 games behind Atlanta in the NL East.
- Public money has been heavily on the Phillies moneyline throughout the day, reaching as high as 91% of dollars wagered.
- Public money has leaned Under on the total as high as 71% in the most recent reading.
- George Kirby has allowed just 17 home runs this season, nearly half of Aaron Nola's total of 31.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PHI and SEA
- Philadelphia's Derek Hill is listed day-to-day.
- Philadelphia's Rafael Marchan is on the 10-day injured list.
- Seattle's J.P. Crawford is unavailable at shortstop.
- Seattle's Bryan Woo is listed day-to-day.
Phillies vs Mariners Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Seattle Mariners -112 moneyline
- Total Pick: Over 7.5
Final Score Prediction
The starting matchup favors Kirby because of his superior control and lower home-run rate, and Nola's 5.12 ERA creates a difficult setup against a Seattle lineup that gained confidence with nine runs in the opener. With both starters allowing plenty of hits this season and Philadelphia possessing enough power to contribute, I expect this game to clear the total.
- Projected Final Score: Mariners 5, Phillies 4
How to Wager on Phillies vs Mariners
Bettors looking to back Seattle on the moneyline or ride the Over 7.5 tonight have several ways to shop for the best number before first pitch. For a broader look at data-driven picks across the slate, check out my AI picks hub. If you want a deeper dive into specific model-based tools, my Dimers review and Oddible review break down how each platform grades this type of matchup and where they see the most value on Philadelphia versus Seattle.
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