Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Thursday, May 7, 2026
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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks continue their series on Thursday afternoon at Chase Field in Phoenix. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 PM ET with coverage available on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh enters the matchup with a 19-17 overall record, while Arizona sits at 17-17 on the season. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Readers looking for more betting analysis should also check out our Free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Preview
Pittsburgh is expected to hand the ball to Mitch Keller, who enters this start with a 3-1 record, a 2.85 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP across 41.0 innings. He has allowed 31 hits while striking out 31 batters and issuing 12 walks. Arizona is expected to counter with Zac Gallen, who is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP over 32.1 innings. He has allowed 39 hits while recording 20 strikeouts and 10 walks this season.
Pittsburgh Looking to Respond After Shutout Loss
The Pirates enter this contest with a 19-17 overall record and an 8-8 mark on the road. Pittsburgh recently lost to Arizona by a 9-0 score after previously putting together a strong stretch against Cincinnati. The Pirates recently won over the Reds by scores of 17-7, 9-1, and 1-0 before also recently losing to St. Louis 10-5. Despite the shutout defeat in the series opener, Pittsburgh has still won three of its last five games overall.
Pittsburgh has produced balanced offensive numbers throughout the season. The Pirates are batting .248 as a team while scoring 180 runs and collecting 309 hits. They have also hit 38 home runs with a .335 on-base percentage and a .387 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Pittsburgh owns a 3.88 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .224 batting average. The Pirates pitching staff has also recorded 334 strikeouts.
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One clear strength for Pittsburgh entering this matchup is the pitching staff’s ability to limit opposing hitters. The Pirates hold a notable advantage in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and opponent batting average compared to Arizona. Pittsburgh has also been productive offensively during several recent victories, which gives the team a chance to bounce back quickly after the lopsided loss earlier in the series.
Arizona Attempting to Build Momentum at Home
The Diamondbacks enter Thursday with a 17-17 overall record and a 10-6 mark at home this season. Arizona recently won over Pittsburgh 9-0 to open this series, snapping a difficult stretch that included four consecutive losses. Prior to that victory, the Diamondbacks recently lost to Chicago by scores of 8-4, 2-0, and 6-5 while also recently losing to Milwaukee 13-1.
Arizona has posted mixed offensive and pitching numbers this season. The Diamondbacks are batting .248 with 159 runs scored and 281 hits while adding 34 home runs. Arizona owns a .308 on-base percentage and a .414 slugging percentage. On the mound, the Diamondbacks have struggled more consistently with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP while allowing opponents to bat .255 against them. Arizona’s pitching staff has recorded 251 strikeouts this season.
One area where Arizona has shown potential is power production and slugging ability. The Diamondbacks own a higher slugging percentage than Pittsburgh despite producing fewer runs overall. Arizona also gained confidence offensively after scoring nine runs in the most recent meeting against the Pirates, giving the lineup some positive momentum entering this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick
- Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline
Pittsburgh appears to hold the stronger overall pitching advantage entering this game. The Pirates have the better team ERA, WHIP, strikeout total, and opponent batting average, while Mitch Keller has also produced significantly stronger numbers than Zac Gallen so far this season. Although Arizona earned a dominant victory in the previous game, Pittsburgh had won three straight contests prior to that defeat and continues to carry more balanced pitching metrics overall. I think the Pirates are positioned well to respond behind their starting pitching advantage.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Total Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
I lean toward the under in this matchup because Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has consistently limited opposing hitters throughout the season. The Pirates carry a 3.88 team ERA and hold opponents to a .224 batting average. Mitch Keller has also allowed only one home run across 41.0 innings this season. Arizona’s offense did break out in the previous game, but the Diamondbacks had scored only 12 combined runs across their previous four contests before that performance. With Pittsburgh likely looking to settle the pace early behind its pitching edge, the under stands out as the stronger option.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates 4 – Arizona Diamondbacks 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Wednesday.
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