Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions for Friday April 10 2026
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Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs meet at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, on Friday, April 10, 2026, at 2:20 PM with coverage on MLB.TV. The moneyline for this matchup has the Pirates at +129 and the Cubs at -156, while the run line lists Pittsburgh at +1.5 (-171) and Chicago at -1.5 (+141). At the time of this writing the odds were not released. This looks like a very tight matchup on paper, and readers looking for more betting insight should also check out free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Take the Spotlight
This game features Carmen Mlodzinski for Pittsburgh against Shota Imanaga for Chicago. Mlodzinski enters with a 0-0 record, a 4.00 ERA, and a 1.56 WHIP across 9.0 innings. He has allowed 11 hits, struck out 13, walked 3, and has not given up a home run. On the other side, Imanaga is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 10.0 innings. He has surrendered 9 hits, recorded 11 strikeouts, issued 3 walks, and allowed 1 home run. Both pitchers have shown the ability to miss bats early in the season, and each comes into this matchup with fairly similar strikeout and walk totals.
Pittsburgh Brings Solid Early Form Into Chicago
Pittsburgh comes into this game with a 7-5 overall record and a 3-3 mark on the road. Over the last five games, the Pirates have gone 3-2. They recently lost 8-2 against San Diego, but they also picked up wins of 7-1 over San Diego, 8-2 over Baltimore, and 3-2 over Baltimore. Their other result in that five-game stretch was a 5-0 loss against San Diego. That recent run shows a team that has been capable of bouncing back after defeats and putting together strong performances when its offense gets moving.
The Pirates have put up solid team numbers so far. They are batting .244 with 54 runs, 99 hits, and 12 home runs. Their on-base percentage sits at .335 and their slugging percentage is .380. On the pitching side, Pittsburgh has been productive as well, carrying a 3.33 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The staff has issued 52 walks and recorded 120 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .220 batting average. In day games, Pittsburgh is 5-3, which fits this afternoon spot at Wrigley Field.
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One thing that stands out for Pittsburgh is the balance between its offense and pitching staff. The Pirates have scored 54 runs while also posting the lower ERA in this matchup at 3.33. Their 120 strikeouts also jump off the page, showing a staff that has consistently generated swing-and-miss results. That combination gives them a chance to stay competitive even when the matchup looks close.
Chicago Looks to Keep Momentum Going at Home
Chicago enters this contest at 6-6 overall with a 3-3 home record. The Cubs have gone 3-2 in their last five games and are coming off back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay by scores of 6-2 and 9-2. Before that, they lost 6-4 to Tampa Bay and split a pair against Cleveland, falling 6-5 after winning 1-0. That recent stretch suggests Chicago is starting to find a better rhythm, especially after scoring 15 runs across its last two victories.
As a team, the Cubs are batting .223 with 56 runs, 87 hits, and 13 home runs. Their on-base percentage is .312 and their slugging percentage is .368. Chicago’s pitching numbers have also been strong, with a 3.43 ERA and an impressive 1.12 WHIP. The Cubs have walked 39 batters, struck out 92, and limited opponents to a .211 batting average. Those numbers show a club that may not have the higher batting average in this matchup, but one that has still managed to produce runs while keeping traffic on the bases under control better than Pittsburgh.
The biggest strength for Chicago is clearly how well it has limited opposing hitters. The Cubs own the lower opponent batting average at .211 and the better WHIP at 1.12. That matters in a matchup where the overall records are close and both teams have had stretches of good baseball. Chicago has not been dominant offensively by average, but it has still scored 56 runs, which is more than Pittsburgh’s 54.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Pick: Cubs Moneyline
Chicago gets the nod here because the overall matchup leans slightly in its favor. The Cubs have the better WHIP at 1.12 compared to Pittsburgh’s 1.30, and they have also held opponents to a .211 batting average versus .220 for the Pirates. Chicago is also coming off two convincing wins over Tampa Bay, scoring 6 and 9 runs in those games, so there is some recent momentum on the home side. Pittsburgh has been a solid club early, but the Cubs look a bit cleaner from a run prevention standpoint, and that gives them the edge at home.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
Pick: Take the under if the total is set at 8.
I would lean toward the under if the total lands at 8 because both teams bring respectable pitching numbers into the game. Pittsburgh has a 3.33 ERA, while Chicago sits at 3.43. The Cubs have also done an especially good job limiting baserunners with that 1.12 WHIP, and both probable starters have shown some strikeout ability early on. Even though each offense has had productive moments, this looks like a game where the pitching numbers suggest a tighter, more controlled matchup.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 4 – Pirates 3
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Thursday.
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