Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Predictions for Saturday April 11 2026
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The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois to face the Chicago Cubs on Saturday, April 11, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM. The game will be broadcast on MLB.TV. Chicago enters as the favorite at -143 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh sits at +119. The total is set at 6.5 runs, with the Pirates +1.5 at -186 on the run line and the Cubs -1.5 at +153. For more daily betting insights, be sure to check out free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers Taking the Mound
Pittsburgh will start Braxton Ashcraft, who comes into this matchup with a 1-1 record, a 2.25 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP over 12.0 innings. He has allowed just eight hits while striking out 11 and walking four without giving up a home run. Chicago will counter with Edward Cabrera, who has been outstanding early in the season with a 1-0 record, a perfect 0.00 ERA, and a 0.69 WHIP across 11.2 innings. Cabrera has allowed only two hits while striking out nine and walking six, also without surrendering a home run, making this a compelling pitching duel based strictly on the numbers provided. 
Pirates Showing Consistency Early
Pittsburgh enters this game with an 8-5 overall record and a solid 4-3 mark on the road. The Pirates have been competitive in recent games, winning three of their last five contests. They recently picked up a 2-0 win over the Cubs and also secured victories against San Diego and Baltimore, though they did drop two games in that same stretch, including an 8-2 loss and a 5-0 defeat. Overall, the recent results show a team capable of bouncing back quickly and staying in close contests.
From a statistical perspective, the Pirates have produced a .247 batting average with 54 runs and 100 hits, including 12 home runs. Their on-base percentage sits at .338 with a .383 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, Pittsburgh has been effective with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .220 batting average. The staff has recorded 120 strikeouts against 52 walks, showing both swing-and-miss ability and reasonable control.
A key strength for Pittsburgh is its balanced production across both offense and pitching. The combination of a .247 batting average and a 3.33 ERA suggests a team that can generate runs while also preventing them at a steady rate. That balance has helped them maintain a winning record and remain competitive in nearly every game.
Cubs Looking to Hold Home Field
Chicago comes into this matchup with a 6-7 record overall and a 3-4 mark at home. The Cubs have split their recent form, going 2-3 over their last five games. They recently dropped a 2-0 game to Pittsburgh but also secured back-to-back wins over Tampa Bay by scores of 6-2 and 9-2. Despite those wins, they also suffered losses against Cleveland and Tampa Bay, showing some inconsistency in their results.
Statistically, the Cubs have posted a .223 team batting average with 56 runs, 87 hits, and 13 home runs. Their on-base percentage is .312 with a .368 slugging percentage. On the mound, Chicago owns a 3.43 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .211 batting average. The pitching staff has recorded 92 strikeouts and issued 39 walks, reflecting solid overall control and efficiency.
One notable strength for Chicago is its ability to limit opposing hitters. With a .211 opponent batting average and a 1.12 WHIP, the Cubs have shown they can keep runners off the bases. That could be an important factor in a game where both teams feature strong pitching numbers.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bruce Marshall | +6,749.00 |
| 2 |  Bryan Power | +5,537.00 |
| 3 |  Tony Karpinski | +4,340.00 |
| 4 |  Pro Sports Picks | +3,905.00 |
| 5 |  The Gold Sheet | +2,237.00 |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Pick: Cubs Moneyline
Chicago gets the slight edge in this matchup based on its pitching metrics and home field advantage. While both teams have similar overall profiles, the Cubs’ 1.12 WHIP and .211 opponent batting average stand out as slightly better than Pittsburgh’s marks. With Edward Cabrera allowing just two hits in over 11 innings and carrying a 0.00 ERA, Chicago appears to have the stronger starting pitching edge. That advantage could be enough in what projects to be a low-scoring game.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
Pick: Under 6.5
I’m leaning toward the under here because both teams bring strong pitching into this matchup. Pittsburgh has a 3.33 ERA and a .220 opponent batting average, while Chicago has been even slightly better in limiting hits. Both starting pitchers have also performed well, with one carrying a 2.25 ERA and the other yet to allow a run. With these numbers pointing toward limited scoring opportunities, this total feels more likely to stay under.
Final Score Prediction: Cubs 3 – Pirates 2
This prediction was written before the completion of game play on Friday.
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