Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 31 2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds continue their four-game National League Central series Friday at 6:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park, with Pittsburgh looking to answer after Cincinnati captured Thursday's opener 3-2. The Pirates enter as -136 moneyline favorites and are available at +128 on the -1.5 run line, while the Reds are priced at +113 and +1.5 runs at -155. If you are searching for more value on today's slate, check out our full MLB predictions before locking in your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: Pirates -136
- Total Pick: Under 8
- Final Score Prediction: Pirates 4, Reds 2
Odds and Line Movement
Pittsburgh has held steady as the favorite throughout the week, while the total has climbed from an opening number of 7.5 to eight as gametime approaches. Here is the current market followed by the full line movement for both the run line and total.
Current Odds
| Market | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -136 | +113 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+128) | +1.5 (-155) |
| Total | 8 (Over -105 / Under -115) | |
Line Movement
| Date | Time | Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/31 | 07:49:48AM | -136 | +113 | PIT 87%, 77% |
| 07/31 | 02:29:43AM | -135 | +112 | PIT 87%, 77% |
| 07/31 | 02:29:43AM | -135 | +112 | PIT 87%, 77% |
| 07/31 | 02:29:43AM | -135 | +112 | PIT 86%, 73% |
| 07/31 | 01:17:50AM | -131 | +109 | PIT 86%, 73% |
| 07/30 | 09:24:21PM | -126 | +104 | PIT 67%, 76% |
| 07/30 | 09:24:21PM | -126 | +104 | CIN 51%, 26% |
| 07/30 | 05:52:53PM | -126 | +104 | PIT 50%, 71% |
| 07/30 | 05:52:53PM | -126 | +104 | |
| 07/30 | 04:18:34PM | -126 | +104 | |
| 07/30 | 03:43:53PM | -126 | +104 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/31 | 08:26:19AM | 8o-105 | 8u-114 | O73%, O53% |
| 07/31 | 07:49:48AM | 8o-105 | 8u-115 | O73%, O53% |
| 07/31 | 02:29:43AM | 8o-102 | 8u-118 | O73%, O53% |
| 07/31 | 01:17:50AM | 7Âœo-118 | 7Âœu-102 | O73%, O54% |
| 07/30 | 09:24:21PM | 7Âœo-119 | 7Âœu-102 | |
| 07/30 | 05:52:53PM | 8o-102 | 8u-118 | |
| 07/30 | 04:18:34PM | 8o-102 | 8u-117 | |
| 07/30 | 04:17:24PM | 8o-102 | 8u-118 | |
| 07/30 | 03:45:43PM | 8o-103 | 8u-117 | |
| 07/30 | 03:43:53PM | 7Âœo-114 | 7Âœu-106 |
Pirates vs Reds Key Matchups and Game Preview
Pirates Ace on the Mound
Pittsburgh owns a major advantage in the starting-pitching matchup behind Paul Skenes, who is 9-9 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 149 strikeouts against only 28 walks through 120.2 innings. Skenes has allowed 100 hits and 11 home runs, demonstrating the combination of command and swing-and-miss ability needed to contain Cincinnati's inconsistent lineup.
Reds Rotation Trouble
Hunter Greene counters for Cincinnati with a 2-2 record, 7.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 21.2 innings. Greene has collected 29 strikeouts with only seven walks, but he has surrendered 22 hits and 17 earned runs across four starts, including six runs in 5.1 innings during his most recent appearance.
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Pittsburgh's Lineup Depth
The Pirates carry the stronger overall offensive profile, batting .259 with a .336 on-base percentage and 565 runs, compared with Cincinnati's .230 average, .309 OBP and 443 runs. Brandon Lowe leads Pittsburgh with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs, while Nick Gonzales is batting a team-best .316 with a .370 OBP.
Cincinnati's Top Bats
Cincinnati's primary threats include Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting .279 with a .504 slugging percentage, and Sal Stewart, who has produced 22 homers and 80 RBIs. Despite those individual numbers, the Reds' overall lineup depth remains a clear step behind Pittsburgh's.
Betting Trends: PIT and CIN
Pittsburgh has lost three straight games, but Skenes provides a clear opportunity to stop that slide, and the moneyline has steadily strengthened toward the Pirates throughout the week, moving from -126 to -136. Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses over its past five games, and Greene's uneven return creates too much early-game risk against the better lineup. The total has also climbed from 7.5 to eight, reflecting the market's expectation of a more competitive scoring environment than initially priced.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PIT and CIN
Injuries have reduced the depth of both clubs. Pittsburgh remains without Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz, removing two potentially impactful bats, while catcher Rafael Flores Jr. and multiple relievers are also unavailable. The Reds are missing Spencer Steer, weakening the middle of their order, and their pitching depth has taken hits with Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan sidelined.
Pirates vs Reds Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Pirates Moneyline (-136)
- Total Pick: Under 8 (-115)
The low total makes laying 1.5 runs less attractive, so the moneyline offers the safer approach behind Skenes and Pittsburgh's deeper lineup.
Final Score Prediction
- Final Score: Pirates 4, Reds 2
How to Wager On Pirates vs Reds
Bettors looking to get down on Pirates vs Reds have several tools available to help shape their picks. Our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections for this matchup, while the Dimers review and Oddible review offer additional angles on the run line, total and moneyline markets for this NL Central clash at Great American Ball Park.
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