Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday August 13 2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins close out their three-game series Thursday, August 13, with first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET in Miami, and this Pirates vs Marlins matchup carries plenty of betting value with Miami riding a four-game winning streak into the finale. Braxton Ashcraft takes the mound for Pittsburgh against Tyler Phillips in a spot where the number has moved several times over the past 24 hours. For more angles like this one, check out our MLB predictions before finalizing your card.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+137)
- Total: Under 8 (-110)
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 5, Marlins 2
Odds and Line Movement
The market has shifted multiple times since Tuesday afternoon, and tracking that movement gives context on where the money has landed heading into Thursday's series finale.
Current Odds
| Date | Time | Pittsburgh | Miami | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 | 03:47:48AM | -119 | +111 | MIA 66%, 54% |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Pittsburgh | Miami | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 | 03:47:48AM | -119 | +111 | MIA 66%, 54% |
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | -119 | +111 | PIT 91%, 46% |
| 08/12 | 09:37:35PM | -126 | +104 | — |
| 08/12 | 08:14:25PM | -126 | +104 | MIA 94% |
| 08/12 | 05:53:11PM | -126 | +104 | PIT 92%, 87% |
| 08/12 | 03:46:03PM | -130 | +108 | — |
| 08/12 | 03:13:53PM | -130 | +108 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/13 | 03:47:48AM | 8o-110 | 8u-110 | O92% |
| 08/12 | 08:14:25PM | 8o-112 | 8u-108 | — |
| 08/12 | 03:13:53PM | 8o-108 | 8u-112 | — |
Pirates vs Marlins Key Matchups and Game Preview
Pittsburgh sends Braxton Ashcraft to the mound, and he enters at 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 132.1 innings. His ability to miss bats stands out, with 145 strikeouts against just 32 walks this season. Tyler Phillips has posted a better 3.47 ERA for Miami, but his 1.36 WHIP over 93.1 innings is considerably higher, and he has recorded only 70 strikeouts against 39 walks, which could create opportunities for a Pittsburgh lineup that has produced 604 runs and 145 home runs this season.
Brandon Lowe has been Pittsburgh's biggest power threat, leading the club with 25 home runs and 74 RBI while batting .251, and Nick Gonzales has provided a strong contact presence at .307 with a .360 OBP. Miami counters with Otto Lopez, who is batting .314 with a .346 OBP and a .463 slugging percentage, while Heriberto Hernandez leads the Marlins with 17 home runs. Miami has scored 534 runs with 123 homers on the year, but its pitching staff has been the stronger overall unit, carrying a 3.91 team ERA and 1.24 WHIP compared to Pittsburgh's 4.35 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
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Injuries are meaningful on both sides. Pittsburgh remains without Oneil Cruz, while Ryan O'Hearn is also on the injured list and Endy Rodriguez is day-to-day, removing potential impact bats from the Pirates' lineup. Miami is missing Kyle Stowers, while relievers Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi and Ronny Henriquez are all unavailable, which could weaken the Marlins' late-inning options if Phillips is unable to work deep into the game.
Miami has dominated the series to this point, winning 2-0 on Tuesday and 8-2 on Wednesday to extend its winning streak to four games, while Pittsburgh has dropped three straight. Still, Ashcraft's superior strikeout-to-walk profile gives the Pirates a real chance to snap the slide on Thursday.
PIT vs MIA Betting Trends
The moneyline opened with Pittsburgh as high as -130 on Tuesday before drifting in to -126 and settling at its current -119 number, with Miami's price moving from +108 up to +111 over that same stretch. Public backing has flipped over the course of the series, with Pittsburgh drawing 91 percent of bets at one point Tuesday night before Miami's side pulled 66 percent of bets and 54 percent of money on the latest number. On the total, the line has bounced between 8 and 8.5 with juice shifting from the under to the over, and the most recent number shows the over drawing 92 percent of bets.
PIT vs MIA Key Injuries and Things to Know
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) - out
- Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) - injured list
- Endy Rodriguez (PIT) - day-to-day
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) - out
- Anthony Bender (MIA) - unavailable
- Andrew Nardi (MIA) - unavailable
- Ronny Henriquez (MIA) - unavailable
Pirates vs Marlins Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+137)
- Total: Under 8 (-110)
Pittsburgh -1.5 at plus money offers more value than laying a price on the straight moneyline, and Ashcraft's strikeout-to-walk profile supports the Pirates covering that number. On the total, the under is the preferred angle with Ashcraft expected to limit Miami's lineup and Phillips capable of keeping Pittsburgh relatively contained as well.
Marlins Final Score Prediction
Pirates 5, Marlins 2
How to Wager on Pirates vs Marlins
For Thursday's series finale between Pittsburgh and Miami, the two most relevant markets are the run line, where Pittsburgh -1.5 offers value at +137, and the total, where the under 8 at -110 lines up with Ashcraft's strong strikeout-to-walk numbers against a Miami lineup that is missing key pieces. Bettors looking to shop this line further or use additional tools before placing a wager can check out our AI picks hub, along with our Dimers review and Oddible review for more ways to build out a card around this matchup.
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