Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Picks and Prediction for Sunday March 29 2026
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The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Citi Field in Queens, New York to face the New York Mets on Sunday, March 29, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 1:40 PM and coverage available on MLB.TV. The Mets enter this matchup as a -175 moneyline favorite while the Pirates come back at +144. The total is listed at 7.5, with the over priced at -118 and the under at -102. On the run line, Pittsburgh is +1.5 at -156 while New York is -1.5 at +129. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more daily baseball betting insight and analysis.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
The previous game between these teams turned into an 11-inning battle, with the New York Mets pulling out a 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Neither team scored through the first nine innings, and the game remained a tense pitchers’ duel until both clubs broke through in the 10th. Pittsburgh scored once in the top half of the inning and New York answered with one of its own in the bottom half, but the Mets ended it in the 11th with a three-run burst. The Pirates finished with two runs on 12 hits and did not commit an error, while the Mets scored four runs on six hits and were charged with one error. Even though Pittsburgh doubled New York in hits, the Mets made better use of their opportunities and delivered the decisive swings late.
The Pirates had chances all night but struggled to cash them in, leaving 17 runners on base and going just 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Bryan Reynolds had two hits and an RBI, Nick Gonzales also collected two hits and drove in a run, and Jake Mangum added two hits as well. Ryan O’Hearn, Marcell Ozuna, Brandon Lowe, Joey Bart, Nick Yorke, and Jared Triolo all chipped in hits, but the lack of extra-base impact kept Pittsburgh from turning its traffic into more than two runs. For the Mets, Luis Robert Jr. provided the biggest moment of the game with a three-run home run in the 11th and finished with three RBIs. Luis Torrens drove in the other run, while Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Robert all recorded hits. The Mets did not have the same volume of offense as Pittsburgh, but their timely hitting was the difference.
On the mound, Pittsburgh got an outstanding start from Mitch Keller, who worked six scoreless innings and allowed only three hits while striking out three. The bullpen also had strong moments, with J. Lawrence, G. Soto, and D. Santana all helping keep the game scoreless deep into extra innings, but H. Barco took the loss after giving up three hits and four runs, two earned, in the 11th. As a team, the Pirates allowed six hits, four runs, two earned, and five walks while striking out eight. The Mets matched that effort with a strong staff performance of their own. D. Peterson threw 5.1 scoreless innings while allowing six hits and striking out three. The Mets bullpen then pieced together the rest of the game, with H. Brazoban, L. Weaver, B. Raley, D. Williams, L. Garcia, and R. Lovelady combining to hold Pittsburgh to two runs, both unearned, across the final 5.2 innings. Lovelady picked up the win after working the 11th.
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The key takeaway is that Pittsburgh created far more traffic on the bases but could not finish enough of those chances, while New York continued its early-season trend of coming up with the biggest hit at the biggest moment.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Road Form & Team Analysis
The Pirates enter this game with an 0-2 overall record and an 0-2 mark on the road. Pittsburgh recently lost to New York, recently lost to New York, recently lost to Atlanta, recently lost to Boston, and recently won over Toronto. That recent stretch shows a club that has struggled to turn competitive efforts into wins, especially over the last four games.
As a team, the Pirates are batting .270 with seven runs, 10 hits, and three home runs while carrying a .270 on-base percentage and a .595 slugging percentage. On the mound, Pittsburgh has posted a 12.38 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP, with nine walks and 10 strikeouts while allowing opponents to bat .324. Those numbers show a lineup that has displayed some power but a pitching staff that has had a very difficult time keeping games under control.
The biggest issue for Pittsburgh right now is efficiency. The Pirates put up 12 hits in the previous game and still managed only two runs because they stranded 17 runners and went 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Reynolds and Gonzales both produced at the plate, and Mangum kept innings alive with two hits, but the club’s inability to deliver in key situations has wasted some otherwise useful offensive work.
New York Mets – Home Field Breakdown
The Mets come into this matchup at 2-0 overall and 2-0 at home. New York recently won over Pittsburgh, recently won over Pittsburgh, recently lost to Miami, recently lost to Houston, and recently lost to Washington. Even with those losses in the recent sample, the Mets have looked sharp in this series and have started this home set on the right foot.
New York is batting .324 with 11 runs, 11 hits, and two home runs while posting a .467 on-base percentage and a .588 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns a 7.00 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP, along with 10 strikeouts and no walks, while opponents are batting .270 against them. Those numbers point to a team that has paired aggressive offense with a staff that has at least limited free passes.
A key strength for the Mets is their ability to deliver timely offense. Luis Robert Jr. has already become a major force, and his three-run home run in the previous game gave him five RBIs on the young season. Even in a game where New York had only six hits, Robert and Torrens delivered enough damage to flip the outcome, which reinforces how dangerous this lineup can be when it gets even a few chances.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
This pitching matchup features Carmen Mlodzinski, a right-handed pitcher wearing number 50 for Pittsburgh, against Nolan McLean, a right-handed pitcher wearing number 26 for New York. Mlodzinski worked mostly as a reliever but also made 12 starts in 2025, finishing with a 5-8 record and a 3.55 ERA across 99 innings. He posted a 1.30 WHIP, allowed 102 hits, gave up 42 runs with 39 earned, and struck out 89 while walking 27. His career numbers show a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 185.2 innings, with 169 hits allowed and 171 strikeouts. McLean put together an impressive 2025 season, going 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 48 innings. He allowed only 34 hits and 11 earned runs while striking out 57 and walking 16. Opponents batted just .200 against him, and his expanded profile shows a strong 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings along with a solid ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio. Based strictly on the provided data, Mlodzinski brings a respectable profile and some versatility, but McLean enters with the stronger recent season, lower ERA, lower WHIP, fewer hits allowed, and the more dominant opponent batting numbers.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Spread / Moneyline Pick
The pick here is the New York Mets on the moneyline. New York has already won the first two games of the series, and while the Pirates have shown some offensive life, their overall pitching numbers remain far weaker. The Mets also hold the advantage in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and overall run production, and McLean’s 2025 numbers are clearly stronger than Mlodzinski’s entering this matchup. Add in the timely offense from Robert in the previous game, and the Mets have the better overall case based on the provided data.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets Total Pick
I like the under in this game based strictly on the numbers provided. The total is 7.5, and the previous game finished with only six combined runs even after going 11 innings. Pittsburgh had plenty of baserunners but still struggled badly in key spots, and McLean’s profile suggests the Mets have the stronger starting pitching edge. With the Pirates continuing to waste opportunities and the Mets not necessarily needing a huge number of hits to win, I see this one staying on the lower side of the total.
Final Score Prediction: New York Mets wins 4–2
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