Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday August 25 2026
My Pirates vs Padres picks for Tuesday night lean toward Pittsburgh, a team that just won a 12-inning opener and gets plus money behind Paul Skenes' strikeout upside. For more plays across the league tonight, check out my MLB picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +103 moneyline
- Total Pick: Under 7.5
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 4, Padres 3
Odds and Line Movement
San Diego's moneyline opened around -117 on Sunday and Monday afternoon, moved through -118 and -120, and firmed up to -124 by late Monday night, while Pittsburgh has drifted from -103 out to +103 over the same stretch. Public money has been on San Diego throughout, reaching as high as 74% of dollars wagered. The total has held right around 7.5 runs all day, moving between -119 and -126 on the Under side and settling with the Over at plus money in the most recent reading, with the public leaning Over as high as 71% at last check.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +103 | Over 7.5 (+100) |
| San Diego Padres | -124 | Under 7.25 (-120) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Pittsburgh | San Diego | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/24 | +103 | -124 | SD 74%, 69% |
| 08/24 | +103 | -124 | SD 74%, 60% |
| 08/24 | -101 | -120 | -- |
| 08/24 | -101 | -120 | -- |
| 08/24 | -102 | -118 | -- |
| 08/24 | -102 | -118 | -- |
| 08/24 | -102 | -118 | -- |
| 08/24 | -103 | -117 | -- |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/24 | 7.5 (+100) | 7.25 (-120) | O71%, O50% |
| 08/24 | 7.5 (-102) | 7.25 (-119) | -- |
| 08/24 | 7.5 (+101) | 7.25 (-121) | -- |
| 08/24 | 7.5 (-101) | 7.25 (-120) | -- |
| 08/24 | 7.5 (+104) | 7.25 (-126) | -- |
Pirates vs Padres Key Matchups and Game Preview
Pittsburgh
The Pirates are 64-69 after grabbing Monday's 12-inning opener 3-2, and they send Paul Skenes to the mound in what shapes up as a potential pitching duel. Skenes is 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 139 innings, striking out 171 batters while allowing 118 hits, 41 walks and 14 home runs. His ability to miss bats gives Pittsburgh a major weapon against a San Diego offense that has been less productive than the Pirates over the full season. Pittsburgh has surprisingly held the statistical edge offensively, batting .253 with a .330 on-base percentage, 157 home runs and 656 runs. Brandon Lowe leads the club with 27 home runs and 80 RBIs while hitting .252, and Nick Gonzales has been the team's most consistent contact hitter at .308 with a .366 OBP. Pittsburgh is without catcher Endy Rodriguez and outfielder Ryan O'Hearn, while shortstop Konnor Griffin remains on the 60-day injured list.
Padres
San Diego is 71-61 and sits second in the NL West, 9.5 games behind Los Angeles, entering this series after a 12-inning loss on Monday. Michael King gets the ball for the Padres at 8-9 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 149 innings, allowing 117 hits with 128 strikeouts, 58 walks and 18 home runs. San Diego is hitting .238 as a team with a .316 on-base percentage, 148 home runs and 566 runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. remains a dangerous bat at .287 with a .358 OBP and .449 slugging percentage, while Manny Machado has 24 home runs and 72 RBIs. San Diego has Samad Taylor on the injured list and is also dealing with significant pitching absences, including Joe Musgrove, Lucas Giolito and reliever Jason Adam, while Casey Mize is listed day-to-day.
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Betting Trends: PIT and SD
- Pittsburgh won Monday's series opener 3-2 in 12 innings.
- San Diego sits second in the NL West, 9.5 games behind Los Angeles.
- Public money has been on the Padres moneyline throughout the day, reaching as high as 74% of dollars wagered.
- Monday's opener produced only five combined runs despite lasting 12 innings.
- Both starting pitchers own WHIPs below 1.20 this season.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: PIT and SD
- Pittsburgh's Endy Rodriguez is unavailable at catcher.
- Pittsburgh's Ryan O'Hearn is out in the outfield.
- Pittsburgh's Konnor Griffin remains on the 60-day injured list.
- San Diego's Samad Taylor is on the injured list.
- San Diego is without pitchers Joe Musgrove, Lucas Giolito and reliever Jason Adam, while Casey Mize is listed day-to-day.
Pirates vs Padres Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +103 moneyline
- Total Pick: Under 7.5
Final Score Prediction
King has the better ERA, but Skenes' strikeout upside and Pittsburgh's stronger season-long offensive production make the underdog attractive at plus money tonight. With both starters posting WHIPs below 1.20 and Monday's opener producing only five runs despite lasting 12 innings, I expect another lower-scoring contest.
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 4, Padres 3
How to Wager on Pirates vs Padres
Bettors looking to back Pittsburgh on the moneyline or ride the Under 7.5 tonight have several ways to shop for the best number before first pitch. For a broader look at data-driven picks across the slate, check out my AI picks hub. If you want a deeper dive into specific model-based tools, my Dimers review and Oddible review break down how each platform grades this type of matchup and where they see the most value on Pittsburgh versus San Diego.
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