Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Picks and Prediction for Friday, May 22, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 05/22/2026, 12:55 AM ET

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Toronto Blue Jays meet Friday at Rogers Centre, with first pitch set for 7:07 PM ET on MLB.TV. Pittsburgh comes in at 25-24 overall and 12-11 on the road, while Toronto is 22-27 overall and 13-11 at home. ESPN Analytics gives Toronto a slight 52.7% edge, which fits a matchup that looks close but leans toward the Blue Jays because of the starting pitching gap. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Pirates Preview

Pittsburgh snapped a rough stretch with a 7-0 win at St. Louis on May 20, but the Pirates had dropped four straight before that, including two shutout losses to Philadelphia. The Pirates have solid overall offensive numbers with a .252 average, .335 OBP, .389 slugging mark, 242 runs, and 50 home runs. Nick Gonzales leads the club with a .319 average, while Oneil Cruz has supplied 33 RBIs and 10 home runs. Brandon Lowe has also added power with 12 home runs and 31 RBIs.

Bubba Chandler gets the ball for Pittsburgh, and the control numbers are the concern. Chandler is 1-5 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 42.0 innings, with 36 strikeouts, 31 walks, and seven home runs allowed. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff owns a 3.89 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but Chandler’s walks put extra pressure on that staff early. The Pirates can win this if the offense builds on the St. Louis game, but Chandler has to avoid free passes.

Blue Jays Preview

Toronto enters after a tight 2-1 win at Yankee Stadium and has won three of the last five. The Blue Jays have been inconsistent offensively, posting a .243 average, .306 OBP, .369 slugging mark, 200 runs, and 44 home runs. Ernie Clement leads Toronto with a .286 average, while Andres Gimenez has 27 RBIs and five home runs. Kazuma Okamoto has provided the main power threat with 10 home runs and 27 RBIs.

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Kevin Gausman gives Toronto the advantage in this matchup. Gausman is 3-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 57.1 innings, with 53 strikeouts and only nine walks. That command edge matters against a Pittsburgh lineup that has been held scoreless twice in the last five games. Toronto also gets this game at home, where the Blue Jays are 13-11, and the bullpen matchup is close enough that the starter edge should carry weight.

Blue Jays vs Pirates Pick

The pick is Toronto to win, with the Blue Jays taking advantage of Gausman’s strike-throwing and Chandler’s walk issues. Pittsburgh has the better overall run total on the season, but recent scoring has been uneven, and Gausman is the safer arm to trust. Final score prediction: Blue Jays 5, Pirates 3. Best picks: Toronto moneyline and Toronto first five innings lean.

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