San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Padres vs Dodgers prediction is an NL West rubber match with two starters who have kept baserunners to a minimum. San Diego and Los Angeles close out their three-game series at Dodger Stadium with first pitch at 10:10 PM ET, and the set is tied 1-1 after a 7-0 Dodgers win in the opener and a 5-1 Padres win Wednesday. Los Angeles is 97-61 and San Diego is 88-70. The Dodgers are -175 on the moneyline and +128 on the -1.5 run line, the Padres are +144, and the total is 7.5. Tyler Glasnow's 0.96 WHIP against Nick Pivetta's 1.00 WHIP points to a pitching-driven game, and the Dodgers' deeper lineup gives them the edge to win it by more than a run. For more daily betting edges, check out our full slate of MLB picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+128)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-114)
- Projected Final Score: Dodgers 4, Padres 2
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | +144 | +1.5 | Over 7.5 (-105) |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -175 | -1.5 (+128) | Under 7.5 (-114) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | San Diego | LA Dodgers | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +144 | -175 | LAD 67%, LAD 77% |
| 09/24 | +145 | -175 | LAD 75%, LAD 81% |
| 09/24 | +144 | -175 | LAD 74%, LAD 79% |
| 09/24 | +145 | -176 | LAD 74%, LAD 79% |
| 09/24 | +144 | -175 | LAD 74%, LAD 77% |
| 09/24 | +142 | -173 | LAD 74%, LAD 78% |
| 09/23 | +142 | -172 | LAD 73%, LAD 60% |
| 09/23 | +140 | -169 | LAD 99%, LAD 67% |
| 09/23 | +139 | -168 | LAD 99%, LAD 67% |
| 09/23 | +139 | -169 |
The Dodgers have been the steady choice in this market. Los Angeles opened at -169, climbed gradually through -172 and -173, and has settled at -175 after a brief tick to -176. The Padres moved from +139 to +144. Support for the Dodgers has been consistent, with 67% to 99% of the money and 60% to 81% of the tickets throughout. The early money share was nearly unanimous at 99% and has since cooled to 67%, while the ticket share has grown to 77%. That suggests the public has kept backing Los Angeles even as some larger bets eased off. The price has only moved six cents overall, so the market sees -175 as close to fair. The run line at +128 remains the better value on the Dodgers side.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 7.5 (-105) | 7.5 (-114) | OV 99%, OV 71% |
| 09/24 | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-110) | OV 99%, OV 50% |
| 09/23 | 7.5 (-109) | 7.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 09/23 | 7.5 (-110) | 7.5 (-110) |
The total has stayed at 7.5, but the latest move is telling. The number opened with even -110 juice on both sides and barely moved overnight, even though 99% to 100% of the money was on the Over. In the most recent update, the Over's share of tickets rose to 71%, and the book responded by moving the price toward the Under: the Under went to -114 and the Over dropped to -105.
That is reverse line movement. When the public keeps betting the Over and the price still shifts toward the Under, sharper money is usually behind the move. With both starters limiting baserunners and the series already producing low-scoring games, the market's lean matches the matchup.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Padres vs Dodgers Key Matchups and Game Preview
This NL West series has been split with two very different games. Los Angeles opened with a 7-0 shutout, and San Diego answered with a 5-1 win Wednesday. The two games produced just 13 combined runs, and both finished under 7.5. The Dodgers are 97-61, nine games better than the Padres at 88-70, and Thursday's finale features two starters with elite baserunner numbers.
Dodgers Turn to Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Glasnow brings an impressive profile to the mound. He enters 5-1 with a 3.46 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and 87 strikeouts over 67.2 innings. That is more than a strikeout per inning with fewer than one baserunner per inning allowed. Glasnow misses bats and keeps traffic off the bases, which makes it hard for an opponent to build rallies.
His WHIP is the best of either starter in this game. Against a Padres lineup that hits .243 with a .318 OBP, Glasnow should have a clear path to controlling the game. His strikeout ability also limits the damage from balls in play, which supports both the Dodgers run line and the Under.
Padres Hand the Ball to Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta has been excellent in a smaller sample. He is 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP across 30 innings. He has allowed only 23 hits and seven walks while striking out 35. His ERA is actually lower than Glasnow's, and his WHIP is nearly identical.
The main question is workload. With just 30 innings this season, Pivetta may not be able to pitch as deep into the game as Glasnow. If he exits early, the Padres will turn to a bullpen that is already missing Jeremiah Estrada. That is where the Dodgers' deeper lineup can create the separation needed to cover the run line.
Los Angeles Owns the Offensive Edge
The Dodgers have the stronger lineup across the board. Los Angeles is batting .258 with a .339 on-base percentage and a .426 slugging percentage, and it has scored 788 runs. San Diego sits at .243/.318/.398 with 695 runs. That is a 93-run advantage for the Dodgers, along with edges in every slash category. In a game where both starters limit baserunners, the team with the deeper lineup is better positioned to take advantage of the few chances that come.
Dodgers Bats: Freeman and the Ohtani Question
Freddie Freeman gives Los Angeles a steady bat, hitting .290. The bigger question is Shohei Ohtani, who has 30 home runs and 80 RBIs but has been on the 15-day injured list with right biceps inflammation and a left knee issue. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently said there was a good chance Ohtani would be activated during this Padres series, but his status should be confirmed before first pitch. If Ohtani returns, the Dodgers' lineup gets a major power boost and the run line becomes even more attractive.
San Diego Leans on Tatis and Machado
The Padres have two hitters who can challenge Glasnow. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with a .287 average, and Manny Machado provides the power with 29 home runs and 87 RBIs. Getting Tatis on base in front of Machado is San Diego's best path to scoring. The rest of the lineup is thinner, especially with Miguel Andujar and Gavin Sheets on the injured list.
Padres and Dodgers Series Has Been Low Scoring
The first two games set the tone for Thursday. The opener produced seven runs, all by the Dodgers, and Wednesday's game produced six. Neither game came close to breaking 7.5. With two starters who allow roughly one baserunner per inning, another low-scoring game is the most likely result. That supports the Under, and it also means the team with the deeper lineup should have a slight edge in winning a close game.
Why the Dodgers Run Line Offers Value
Laying -175 on the moneyline is a fair price for the better team at home, but the run line at +128 pays much more. The Dodgers won the opener by seven, and their offensive edge gives them a real chance to win by two or more again. In a low-scoring game, a 4-2 or 3-1 Dodgers win is a very realistic outcome, and the run line turns that result into a plus-money payout.
SD vs LAD Betting Trends
Padres Trends
- San Diego enters Thursday at 88-70.
- The Padres won Wednesday's game 5-1.
- San Diego was shut out 7-0 in the series opener.
- The Padres have scored 695 runs this season.
- Nick Pivetta owns a 3.30 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 30 innings.
- San Diego's moneyline price has moved from +139 to +144.
Dodgers Trends
- Los Angeles enters Thursday at 97-61.
- The Dodgers won the series opener 7-0.
- Los Angeles has scored 788 runs this season.
- Tyler Glasnow owns a 3.46 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 67.2 innings.
- The Dodgers have drawn 67% to 99% of the moneyline handle.
- Both games in the series have stayed under 7.5, with 13 combined runs.
- The Under moved to -114 despite 99% of the money on the Over.
SD vs LAD Key Injuries and Things To Know
San Diego Injury Report
- Miguel Andujar – Injured List
- Gavin Sheets – Injured List
- Jeremiah Estrada – Sidelined (pitcher)
- Joe Musgrove – Sidelined (pitcher)
- Lucas Giolito – Sidelined (pitcher)
Los Angeles Injury Report
- Shohei Ohtani – 15-Day Injured List (right biceps inflammation, left knee issue), possible activation during this series
- Gavin Stone – Out (pitcher)
- Jake Cousins – Out (pitcher)
- Ben Casparius – Out (pitcher)
- Brusdar Graterol – Out (pitcher)
- Dalton Rushing – Unavailable
Things To Know About the Padres and Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani's status is the biggest variable in this game. Roberts indicated there was a good chance he would be activated during this series, and his return would add 30 home runs and 80 RBIs to an already strong lineup. Bettors should confirm his status before first pitch, because his presence would strengthen the case for the Dodgers run line.
Both pitching staffs are thinned. San Diego is without Estrada, Musgrove and Giolito, which leaves fewer reliable options behind Pivetta. The Padres lineup is also missing Andujar and Sheets. Los Angeles is missing Stone, Cousins, Casparius and Graterol from its staff, along with Rushing. With both bullpens short on depth, the starters will carry even more of the load, and both have been strong enough this season to keep the game low-scoring.
Padres vs Dodgers Side and Over/Under Picks
Los Angeles Run Line Pick
The side pick is Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+128). The Dodgers have the better record, the better lineup by 93 runs and a starter with the best WHIP in the game. Glasnow's strikeout ability against a Padres lineup with a .318 OBP should keep San Diego's scoring chances limited.
The run line pays +128 instead of costing -175 on the moneyline. The main risk is a one-run game, which is always possible when two strong starters face off. But Pivetta's limited workload means the Padres may need their thinned bullpen earlier, and a possible Ohtani return adds even more upside for the Dodgers' offense. A two-run Los Angeles win is a realistic outcome at a strong price.
Under Pick for San Diego at Los Angeles
The total pick is Under 7.5 (-114). Both starters have WHIPs at or below 1.00, and both have kept runs down this season. Glasnow has a 3.46 ERA and Pivetta has a 3.30 ERA. When two pitchers allow roughly one baserunner per inning, runs are usually scarce.
The series has already produced two games under this number, with seven and six runs. The market has also moved toward the Under, with the price shifting to -114 despite nearly all of the money on the Over. A final in the 5-6 run range fits this matchup well.
Padres vs Dodgers Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Dodgers 4, Padres 2
- Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
- Run Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+128) covers
- Total: 6 runs, Under 7.5 hits
Glasnow should control the Padres' lineup, with Tatis and Machado likely producing San Diego's runs. Pivetta keeps the Dodgers quiet early, but the deeper Los Angeles lineup should break through once he exits, especially if Ohtani is back. The Dodgers add enough late to create a two-run cushion. A 4-2 Los Angeles win takes the series and cashes the run line and the Under.
How to Wager On Padres vs Dodgers
This matchup sets up well for pairing the better team on the run line with a low-scoring total. The Dodgers -1.5 at +128 gives you plus money on the team with the deeper lineup and the best WHIP on the mound. The -175 moneyline is a safer option, but it offers far less return for the same outcome.
The Under 7.5 at -114 is backed by two elite starters, a low-scoring series and a market moving against public Over money. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Dodgers run line with the Under in a same-game parlay, since a low-scoring Los Angeles win by two helps both legs. Confirm Shohei Ohtani's status before first pitch, because his return could move both the side and the total. Lock in your numbers before the 10:10 PM ET first pitch.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you find edges across the MLB board.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES
