Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Picks and Prediction for Monday, May 11, 2026

By: David Anicetti Published 05/11/2026, 12:15 AM ET

The Seattle Mariners visit the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on Monday at 8:10 PM ET on MLB.TV and FS1. Seattle is 19-21 and second in the AL West, while Houston is 16-24 and fourth in the division. The Mariners lost 6-1 to the White Sox in their most recent game, while the Astros dropped a 3-1 decision to Cincinnati. Seattle swept Houston in a four-game series earlier this season and leads the season series 4-0. Find value with our free MLB picks.

Seattle Mariners Preview

Seattle is coming off a 6-1 loss to the White Sox after winning three of its previous four games. The Mariners continue to rely heavily on pitching and defense, especially during road games, where offensive production has been less consistent thus far this season.

The Mariners are hitting .230 with a .320 on-base percentage and .379 slugging percentage, producing 166 runs on 302 hits. Luke Raley leads the team with eight home runs and 23 RBI, while Randy Arozarena is batting .278 with a .365 OBP. Julio Rodriguez has collected 43 hits with six home runs, and Cole Young has added 21 RBI. Seattle has totaled 46 home runs this season.

Pitching has been much stronger with the Mariners carrying a 3.81 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while recording 335 strikeouts through 40 games. Seattle has also issued only 98 walks, one of the better totals in the American League.

Injuries: Teddy McGraw, 7-Day IL, Patrick Wisdom, 10-Day IL, Victor Robles, 10-Day IL, Bryce Miller, 15-Day IL, Matt Brash, 15-Day IL

Houston Astros Preview

Houston is coming off a 3-1 loss to Cincinnati after splitting its previous four games. The Astros continue to produce offense consistently, but pitching issues have prevented the team from climbing in the AL West standings.

Houston is hitting .261 with a .337 on-base percentage and .436 slugging percentage, producing 196 runs on 356 hits. Yordan Alvarez leads the lineup with a .327 batting average, 13 home runs, and 29 RBI, while Christian Walker has added nine home runs and 27 RBI. Carlos Correa is batting .279 with a .369 OBP, and Jose Altuve has contributed 34 hits and 10 doubles. Houston ranks among the better offensive teams in the American League with 52 home runs.

However, the Astros have struggled badly on the mound with a 5.56 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, both ranking near the bottom of MLB. Houston has also issued 205 walks through 40 games.

Injuries: Lucas Spence, 7-Day IL, Tatsuya Imai, 15-Day IL, Nate Pearson, 15-Day IL, Lance McCullers Jr., Day-To-Day, Walker Janek, 7-Day IL

Pitching Matchup

Seattle Mariners – Bryan Woo

Woo is 2-2 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 47.0 innings. The right-hander has allowed 39 hits with 38 strikeouts and only eight walks. Woo threw 6.0 scoreless innings against Atlanta in his most recent outing.

Houston Astros – Peter Lambert

Lambert is 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 22.1 innings. The right-hander has allowed 15 hits with 23 strikeouts while not allowing a home run this season.

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Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Seattle has the advantage because of stronger overall pitching and previous success against Houston earlier this season. The Mariners swept the Astros in a four-game series and continue to carry much better ERA and WHIP numbers into this matchup. Houston’s offense remains dangerous, but the pitching staff has struggled too often to consistently support the lineup. Seattle will win the opening game of this series on Monday.

Best Picks

Seattle Mariners
Under 8.5
Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts

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