Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday August 12 2026
The Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees continue their series Wednesday, August 12, 2026, at 7:05 p.m. ET, with New York entering at 67-52 after taking the opener 4-1 and Seattle falling to 56-64 with its fifth consecutive loss. This Mariners vs Yankees matchup features a clear pitching mismatch worth digging into, and bettors looking for more coverage like this can check out our full slate of MLB picks for additional angles across today's games.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline/Run Line Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-194)
- Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-102)
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Mariners 3
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | -124 | -1.5 (+159) | Over 8.5 (-118) |
| Seattle Mariners | +116 | +1.5 (-194) | Under 8.5 (-102) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Seattle | NY Yankees | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12 | 06:05:34AM | +109 | -131 | NYY 95%, 65% |
| 08/12 | 05:57:24AM | +109 | -131 | NYY 95%, 65% |
| 08/11 | 11:19:37PM | +104 | -126 | NYY 95%, 94% |
| 08/11 | 11:19:37PM | +104 | -126 | NYY 95%, 94% |
| 08/11 | 07:27:00PM | +104 | -126 | NYY 93%, 94% |
| 08/11 | 04:18:16PM | +104 | -126 | NYY 91%, 94% |
| 08/11 | 03:08:19PM | +104 | -126 | NYY 80%, 94% |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | 11:19:37PM | 8.5o -118 | 8.5u -102 | - |
| 08/11 | 10:59:06PM | 8.5o -120 | 8.5u +100 | - |
| 08/11 | 07:27:00PM | 9o +102 | 9u -122 | - |
| 08/11 | 05:29:00PM | 9o +101 | 9u -122 | - |
| 08/11 | 05:26:03PM | 8.5o -123 | 8.5u +102 | - |
| 08/11 | 04:12:15PM | 9o +102 | 9u -123 | - |
| 08/11 | 03:33:23PM | 9o +100 | 9u -120 | - |
| 08/11 | 03:08:19PM | 8.5o -126 | 8.5u +104 | - |
Mariners vs Yankees Key Matchups and Game Preview
Seattle sends right-hander Bryce Miller to the mound with a 4-6 record, 3.08 ERA and excellent 0.95 WHIP across 79 innings. Miller has allowed only 60 hits with 79 strikeouts and 15 walks, although his 13 home runs surrendered are worth noting against a powerful Yankees lineup. New York counters with Will Warren, who is 8-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.37 WHIP through 114 innings, allowing 119 hits while striking out 114 and walking 37.
Mariners Pitching Preview
The starting-pitching advantage clearly belongs to Seattle. Miller's 0.95 WHIP is among the more elite marks in this matchup, and his 79 strikeouts against just 15 walks show exceptional control, even with 13 home runs allowed being a lingering concern.
Yankees Pitching Preview
Warren's 4.18 ERA and 1.37 WHIP put him behind Miller in this head-to-head, and his 37 walks across 114 innings should give Seattle opportunities to put runners on base.
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New York Offense Breakdown
New York has been the better offensive club, entering with 535 runs, 167 home runs and a .410 slugging percentage. Ben Rice has helped carry the offense with 32 home runs and 75 RBI while batting .255.
Seattle Offense Breakdown
Seattle has produced 463 runs, 138 homers and a .374 slugging mark on the season. Randy Arozarena leads the listed regulars with a .276 average, .368 OBP and .448 slugging percentage, while Julio Rodriguez has 18 homers and 51 RBI.
Yankees Recent Form
New York has won three of its last five games, including Tuesday's 4-1 win over Seattle in the series opener.
Mariners Recent Form
Seattle has lost all five of its most recent games, scoring only five total runs during that stretch, a stark offensive drought heading into Wednesday.
Yankees' Missing Power
The Yankees' healthy lineup has been significantly weakened by injuries. Aaron Judge is on the 60-day injured list, while Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger are also sidelined, removing three major power threats from New York's order.
Mariners' Injury Concerns
Seattle has injury concerns of its own, with J.P. Crawford on the 10-day IL, while Josh Naylor and reliever Gabe Speier are listed day-to-day.
Seattle's Path to Staying Close
Miller's 3.08 ERA and elite WHIP give Seattle a chance to keep this matchup close, particularly against a depleted New York batting order missing three of its top power threats.
SEA Bullpen Watch
With Gabe Speier listed day-to-day, Seattle's bullpen picture carries some uncertainty, though Miller's ability to work efficiently should reduce the strain on relievers early in the game.
SEA and NYY Betting Trends
The run line has moved toward New York over the past day, tightening from -126/+104 levels Monday afternoon to -131/+109 by Wednesday morning, with Yankees money and tickets both sitting at 95% and 65% at the latest reading. On the total, the number has fluctuated between 8.5 and 9 runs, settling at 8.5 with the over priced at -118 heading into Wednesday.
SEA and NYY Key Injuries and Things To Know
- New York: Aaron Judge (60-day IL); Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger (sidelined)
- Seattle: J.P. Crawford (10-day IL); Josh Naylor and Gabe Speier (day-to-day)
- Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller confirmed for Seattle; Will Warren confirmed for New York
- Series Status: New York leads 1-0 after Tuesday's 4-1 win in the series opener
Mariners vs Yankees Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-194) — Miller's elite WHIP and Seattle's pitching edge make the plus-runs price appealing against a Yankees lineup missing three key power bats.
- Total Pick: Under 8.5 (-102) — Miller's ability to suppress scoring and New York's injury-thinned lineup both point toward a more controlled, lower-scoring game.
Final Score Prediction
- New York Yankees: 4
- Seattle Mariners: 3
Warren's 1.37 WHIP should provide Seattle with opportunities to put runners aboard, but the Mariners' recent offensive struggles make backing them outright difficult. With Miller capable of suppressing scoring and several Yankees stars unavailable, the better combination is taking Seattle with the run and expecting another relatively controlled game.
How to Wager On Mariners vs Yankees
Bettors looking at this Mariners vs Yankees matchup have clear line movement to consider on both the run line and total. Shopping the run line makes sense given the shift from -126/+104 to -131/+109 over the past day, and the total is worth tracking too since it has bounced between 8.5 and 9 runs before settling at 8.5 with over money favored. For those who want an added layer of research before locking in a bet on this matchup, our AI picks hub breaks down model-driven projections, while the Dimers review and Oddible review offer more detail on two of the tools available for cross-checking a game like this Mariners-Yankees matchup before betting.
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