Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday June 24 2026
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Wednesday night's interleague matchup at 6:40 p.m. ET puts two of the better starting pitchers on the board against each other, and if you have been sharpening your card with our MLB picks, the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates Game 2 is worth examining closely before first pitch. Seattle enters on a two-game winning streak and sitting atop the AL West at 41-39, while Pittsburgh comes in at 39-40 looking to even the series after a 3-2 loss in the opener. The betting market has actually flipped Pittsburgh to a slight favorite despite the series deficit, and the total movement from 7 to 7.5 tells its own story about where the money has been landing. Both starters carry sub-1.10 WHIPs and the game profiles as a grind-it-out pitching duel decided late by bullpen depth and situational execution.
Quick Picks
- Side Pick: Seattle Mariners -102
- Total Pick: Under 7.5
- Projected Final Score: Mariners 4, Pirates 3
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | -102 | Over 7.5 (-117) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -118 | Under 7.5 (-103) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | Seattle | Pittsburgh | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/23 | 04:10:08 PM | -102 | -118 | — |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/24 | 03:44:26 AM | 7.5 (-117) | 7.5 (-103) | UN 74%, OV 50% |
| 06/23 | 10:09:23 PM | 7.5 (-114) | 7.5 (-105) | — |
| 06/23 | 09:10:24 PM | 7.5 (-111) | 7.5 (-109) | — |
| 06/23 | 06:36:34 PM | 7.5 (-109) | 7.5 (-111) | — |
| 06/23 | 06:04:36 PM | 7.5 (-103) | 7.5 (-117) | — |
| 06/23 | 05:46:35 PM | 7 (-122) | 7 (+102) | — |
| 06/23 | 04:10:08 PM | 7 (-120) | 7 (+100) | — |
Mariners vs Pirates Key Matchups and Game Preview
This game is built around two starting pitchers who have earned their strong profiles through the first half of the season. Bryan Woo takes the ball for Seattle carrying a 6-5 record, a 3.94 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts across 89 innings. That 1.00 WHIP is the headline number — it reflects a pitcher who limits traffic on the bases at an elite level, keeping opposing offenses from stringing together the multi-baserunner sequences that lead to crooked innings. Against a Pittsburgh lineup with a .334 OBP, Woo's ability to avoid free passes and soft contact is the primary structural advantage Seattle carries into this game.
Braxton Ashcraft counters for Pittsburgh with arguably the better ERA in this matchup at 3.18, alongside a 1.10 WHIP and 97 strikeouts across 90.2 innings and a 6-3 record. Ashcraft has been one of the more quietly productive starters in the National League, and his strikeout upside is genuine. The ERA advantage over Woo is real, and on a neutral field Ashcraft might be the slight pitching edge. At home with Pittsburgh's better overall offensive profile behind him, the market's decision to make the Pirates a slight favorite is defensible on the numbers.
The offensive gap between these clubs is notable and runs in Pittsburgh's favor. The Pirates are batting .255 with 393 runs, 697 hits, a .334 OBP, and a .408 slugging percentage. Seattle counters with a .232 average, 329 runs, a .312 OBP, and a .388 slugging mark — numbers that reflect a Mariners offense that has been one of the less productive in the AL this season when measured by contact and on-base rates. Seattle's advantage is in the home run column, where the Mariners hold a 100-to-94 edge, giving them the ability to manufacture offense in ways that do not require sustained multi-hit sequences.
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Randy Arozarena leads the Seattle lineup contributors with a .287 average and a .373 OBP, providing a consistent on-base presence at the top of the order. Luke Raley and Julio Rodriguez each contribute 14 home runs, giving Woo a reasonable amount of support if he can keep the game close through the middle innings. The Mariners do not need to outscore Pittsburgh — they need to limit the Pirates to a margin their offense can match, which is a realistic ask with Woo on the mound.
Pittsburgh's offense is more dangerous across the lineup. Brandon Lowe leads the listed Pirates contributors with 18 home runs and 49 RBI, Nick Gonzales is hitting .296, and Bryan Reynolds has driven in 51 runs. That combination of average, on-base ability, and run production gives Pittsburgh multiple ways to score even against a pitcher of Woo's quality. The Pirates do not require the long ball to generate runs, which matters when the game environment projects to stay below 8 total runs and every baserunner conversion attempt has added weight.
Series context is relevant here. Seattle won Game 1 by a score of 3-2 and comes in with the series advantage and the momentum of a recent two-game winning streak. Pittsburgh is playing from behind in the series and needs a win to avoid dropping two straight at home, which adds situational urgency to the Pirates' approach. Both bullpens carry injury concerns that could affect late-game execution, and in a game this close, the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings may ultimately decide the outcome more than the starters do.
Betting Trends - SEA and PIT
- The total opened at 7 on June 23 with the Under at +100 and +102, reflecting early market uncertainty about whether this game would project as a true low-scoring contest or something closer to the 7.5 range.
- The total moved from 7 to 7.5 between the June 23 5:46 PM and 6:04 PM timestamps, a half-run jump that shifted the juice structure significantly and confirmed the market's updated view of the run environment for this pitching matchup.
- Once the total moved to 7.5, the juice began at Over -103 and Under -117 on June 23 at 6:04 PM, but has since completely reversed to Over -117 and Under -103 by the 3:44 AM reading on June 24. That is a full juice flip across both sides of the total.
- The public ticket split at 3:44 AM shows UN 74% of tickets but OV 50% of dollars, a divergence suggesting the ticket majority is on the Under while dollar-weighted action is splitting more evenly between both sides of the total.
- The moneyline data shows only one timestamp at open with Seattle -102 and Pittsburgh -118, and no further movement or public split data is available beyond that single snapshot. The market has held the same price since the June 23 open.
- The stability of the moneyline at -102 for Seattle across the available data suggests the books have not seen meaningful one-sided action that would push the number, leaving the price exactly where it opened without adjustment.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - SEA and PIT
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) - Day-to-Day: Canzone's availability adds lineup uncertainty for Seattle heading into Game 2. His status affects the construction of the Mariners' outfield and the depth options available to the Seattle manager in a close game.
- Will Wilson (SEA) - Injured List: Wilson's absence reduces infield depth for the Mariners and limits lineup flexibility in a game where every at-bat in the middle and late innings carries extra weight.
- Brendan Donovan (SEA) - Injured List: Donovan's unavailability further thins Seattle's bench options, which matters most in a tight game where situational pinch-hitting and defensive substitutions become relevant.
- Dane Dunning (SEA) - 60-Day Injured List: Dunning's long-term absence removes a bullpen arm from Seattle's late-game relief options, which is a meaningful concern in a 7.5-total game where the starter is likely to exit before the seventh inning.
- Carlos Vargas (SEA) - 60-Day Injured List: Vargas joins Dunning as a long-term bullpen absence for the Mariners, meaning Seattle enters this game with a shorthanded relief corps behind Woo. How deep Woo can work directly affects how much the bullpen depth issue is exposed.
- Mike Clevinger (PIT) - Injured List: Clevinger's absence reduces Pittsburgh's rotation depth beyond Ashcraft, though it does not directly affect Wednesday's starting assignment.
- Jared Jones (PIT) - Injured List: Jones is another rotation-depth piece unavailable for the Pirates, reinforcing how much this series depends on Ashcraft delivering a quality start.
- Konnor Griffin (PIT) - Injured List: Griffin's absence contributes to Pittsburgh's overall pitching depth concerns behind the starter, creating potential vulnerability in the late innings if Ashcraft exits before the seventh.
- Oddanier Mosqueda (PIT) - Injured List: Additional bullpen depth unavailable for Pittsburgh, compounding the late-game relief situation for both clubs in what projects as a closely contested game.
- Wilber Dotel (PIT) - Injured List: Dotel's unavailability rounds out a significant set of pitching absences for the Pirates that could affect how Pittsburgh manages the back end of a tight game.
Mariners vs Pirates Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Seattle Mariners -102 — Getting the AL West leader at near-even money in a series where they hold both the Game 1 win and the better pitching metrics is the value play in this matchup. Woo's 1.00 WHIP against a Pittsburgh lineup that relies on multi-baserunner sequences to score runs is a real structural edge, and -102 on a team with Seattle's pitching infrastructure in a low-total game is the correct play regardless of Pittsburgh's offensive edge on the season-long numbers.
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 — Two starters with sub-1.10 WHIPs, a total that has already moved up a half run from its open, and a juice structure that has completely flipped from Under -117 to Under -103 across the overnight window all point toward the Under. The 74% public ticket lean on the Under combined with the Under juice improving to -103 makes this the cleaner of the two total options heading into first pitch.
Final Score Prediction
Seattle Mariners 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 3. Woo works six innings and limits Pittsburgh to two or three runs while Seattle scrapes together enough offense behind Arozarena and one home run from Raley or Rodriguez. The bullpens trade zeros in the late innings until Seattle's edge in the series carries over, and the Under 7.5 cashes in a game that mirrors the 3-2 final from Game 1 almost exactly in profile if not in score.
How to Wager On Mariners vs Pirates
The two-bet approach here is Seattle moneyline at -102 and Under 7.5 at -103, and the pricing structure makes both plays efficient. You are getting near-even money on the better-pitching team in a low-total game, and you are getting the Under at -103 in a matchup where both starters have WHIPs under 1.10 and both bullpens are operating with reduced depth. Neither of these bets requires a blowout — they require a close game that stays under 8 runs and eventually tips Seattle's way, which is exactly how Game 1 of this series played out.
For bettors who want to build a more systematic approach to identifying value in pitching-heavy low-total matchups like this one, our AI picks review page is a strong starting point. Our Dimers review and Oddible review both cover platforms that excel at identifying total and moneyline value in games where starter quality and bullpen depth drive the outcome more than raw offensive production does.
When placing these bets, note that the total moved a full half run from 7 to 7.5 in the initial pricing window and the juice has since flipped completely from one side to the other. That kind of movement history in a low-total game signals active two-way market interest that has settled on the current number after genuine back-and-forth. Lock in the Under at -103 before any further juice movement ahead of the 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch, and confirm Dominic Canzone's day-to-day status as a secondary check before finalizing your play on Seattle.
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