St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday August 14 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs matchup renews the NL Central rivalry Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. Chicago is the home favorite on the moneyline, while the run line and total both offer value worth breaking down before betting this game. For more MLB picks and full-slate coverage, check out our MLB predictions hub before locking in any wagers.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+118)
- Total Pick: Over 8 (-109)
- Final Score Prediction: Cubs win, 6-4
Odds and Line Movement
Chicago opened as a moneyline favorite and has seen steady action toward the Cubs across the board, while the total has moved slightly depending on the book and time of day. Below is the current line, followed by full movement tables for the run line and total market.
Current Odds
| Market | St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +169 | -182 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-142) | -1.5 (+118) |
| Total | 8 (Over -109 / Under -110) | |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | St. Louis | Chicago | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/14 | 02:56:42AM | +169 | -182 | CHC 88%, 90% |
| 08/14 | 02:56:42AM | +169 | -182 | CHC 90%, 90% |
| 08/14 | 02:56:42AM | +169 | -182 | CHC 94%, 90% |
| 08/14 | 01:52:29AM | +158 | -193 | CHC 91%, 87% |
| 08/14 | 00:57:05AM | +157 | -191 | CHC 93%, 87% |
| 08/13 | 09:45:09PM | +153 | -186 | CHC 93%, 85% |
| 08/13 | 05:43:30AM | +153 | -186 | CHC 94%, 90% |
| 08/13 | 05:43:30AM | +153 | -186 | CHC 91%, 93% |
| 08/13 | 03:26:53PM | +150 | -183 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/14 | 02:56:42AM | 8o-109 | 8u-110 | - |
| 08/14 | 01:41:47AM | 8o-107 | 8u-113 | - |
| 08/13 | 09:45:09PM | 8o-110 | 8u-110 | - |
| 08/13 | 06:46:27PM | 8o-116 | 8u-104 | - |
| 08/13 | 03:26:53PM | - | - | - |
Cardinals vs Cubs Key Matchups and Game Preview
Chicago enters this series at 71-51 and sits four games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central, while St. Louis is 61-60 and 13.5 games back. Despite the gap in the standings, the Cardinals have won three of their last five games, and the season series between these two clubs is tied 5-5, keeping this rivalry as tight as ever heading into Friday's contest.
Cubs Rotation Advantage
Clay Holmes takes the mound for Chicago carrying a 4-5 record with a 2.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 56.2 innings. He has allowed just 46 hits while striking out 46 batters and walking 20, giving the Cubs a clear edge in run prevention heading into this matchup.
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St. Louis Faces a Tough Test
Matthew Liberatore has had a difficult season for the Cardinals, going 5-9 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 113.2 innings. He has surrendered 130 hits, 43 walks, and 20 home runs, and that kind of traffic on the bases could be costly against a deep Cubs lineup.
Chicago's Offensive Edge
The Cubs are hitting .249 as a team with a .339 OBP and .418 slugging percentage, producing 634 runs and 155 home runs on the season. That production gives Chicago a clear advantage over a Cardinals offense hitting .241 with a .316 OBP, .379 slugging percentage, 529 runs, and 122 home runs.
Crow-Armstrong Fuels the Cubs Attack
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been a driving force for Chicago, posting 27 home runs, a .281 average, 73 RBI, and a .539 slugging percentage. His combination of power and average makes him one of the most dangerous bats in this lineup.
Walker and Burleson Carry the Cardinals
St. Louis will lean on Jordan Walker, who has 23 home runs, a .284 average, and 84 RBI, along with Alec Burleson, who is hitting .287 with 19 home runs, 84 RBI, a .354 OBP, and a .482 slugging percentage. Both hitters give the Cardinals a chance to keep pace if Chicago's bullpen struggles.
Betting Trends: STL vs CHC
Public betting money has consistently backed Chicago throughout the week, with support for the Cubs ranging from the high 80s to the mid 90s in percentage across multiple line checks. Ticket counts have also favored Chicago in nearly every reported update, showing that bettors are confident in the Cubs both on the run line and moneyline heading into first pitch.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: STL and CHC
Chicago is dealing with several bullpen injuries, including Daniel Palencia, Hoby Milner, Gavin Hollowell, and Edward Cabrera, which could limit relief options late in games. Outfielder Matt Shaw is also on the 10-day IL for the Cubs. St. Louis, meanwhile, has Ramon Urias and Max Rajcic on the 60-day IL, though neither is expected to factor into this series.
Cardinals vs Cubs Side and Over/Under Picks
- Side Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+118)
- Total Pick: Over 8 (-109)
Chicago's superior lineup and starting pitching matchup make the Cubs the preferred side on the run line. Liberatore's tendency to allow hits and home runs, combined with Chicago's bullpen injuries and St. Louis' recent offensive success, points toward the total going over.
Final Score Prediction
- Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 6, St. Louis Cardinals 4
How to Wager On Cardinals vs Cubs
For this Cardinals vs Cubs matchup, bettors have a few different angles to consider beyond the straight run line and total, including the moneyline, first five innings, and player prop markets tied to Holmes, Crow-Armstrong, Walker, and Burleson. Line shopping is especially useful here given the reported movement on both the run line and total throughout the week. For additional tools and resources to sharpen your approach, check out our AI picks page, along with our Dimers review and Oddible review for more ways to build out your wagering strategy on this game.
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