St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks and Prediction for Monday, September 16, 2025

By: Garrett Beaverson Updated 09/17/2025, 01:17 AM ET
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The Cincinnati Reds (75–75) head to Busch Stadium Monday, September 16, 2025, to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (73–78). First pitch is scheduled for ~7:45 PM ET. The Reds need this one to stay alive in the NL Wild Card chase, while the Cardinals are playing spoiler in the final stretch. Probable starters are Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati and Michael McGreevy for St. Louis. Get in on the action with our free MLB picks.

Reds Analysis

Cincinnati is in a difficult position—just outside the playoff picture, trying to hang on. Offensively, they are led by Elly De La Cruz, who has 19 home runs and 82 RBIs this season. Their overall team batting average is resting around .246, with power mixed in but lacking consistency. Their bullpen has been somewhat average—solid in some spots, shaky in others. Abbott has been one of their brighter spots: as of mid-September, he has posted a strong ERA (about 2.79), showing good command and limiting hard contact. Abbott’s recent outing was particularly impressive and helps give the Reds a chance in a hostile environment.

Cardinals Analysis

St. Louis is lagging in the playoff race but has moments of promise. Michael McGreevy has developed into a viable arm for them. His 2025 line shows a 6-3 record, 4.44 ERA, 79 innings pitched, 47 strikeouts, WHIP ~1.23. He has been hit around at times but has also shown clutch moments.  The Cardinals’ offense has just gotten a boost: Nolan Arenado returned from injury—though prior to being hurt, his production was well below his career norms (low batting average, decreased power). Their lineup still has some dangerous bats (Contreras, Arenado, etc.), but consistency remains an issue.

Standout Players and Key Injuries

  • Reds: • Elly De La Cruz is their offensive engine, providing most of the pop and run production.

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  • Cardinals: • Michael McGreevy, relatively young, has shown flashes and has improved his composure in big spots.

Reds vs Cardinals Prediction Reasoning

In this matchup, the edge leans to the Reds. Abbott’s superior numbers (ERA, recent outings) and Cincinnati’s desperation in the playoff hunt give them more motivation. McGreevy, while promising, has allowed enough runs and has more variance in his starts. The Cardinals offense may score a few, but the Reds likely outpace them. Expect a moderately high-scoring affair, but Reds showing enough composure to close.

Final Score Projection: Reds 5, Cardinals 3

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