St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday August 20 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds close out their five-game series Thursday afternoon with the set tied 2-2, and the pitching matchup gives St. Louis a slight edge despite Cincinnati's home-field advantage. For more angles on today's slate, check out these MLB picks before locking in your card. Below we break down the odds, the line movement, the injuries and the matchup notes that shape our side and total picks for this rubber match.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Moneyline Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -112
- Total Pick: Over 9
- Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 6, Reds 4
Odds and Line Movement
The posted market has St. Louis around -112 on the moneyline and -1.5 at +135, with Cincinnati sitting at +1.5 at -163 and a total of 9. Below is the full breakdown of current odds along with how the market has moved leading into first pitch.
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | -112 | -1.5 (+135) |
| Cincinnati Reds | +104 | +1.5 (-163) |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9o-108 | 9u-111 |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Time | St. Louis | Cincinnati | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/20 | 03:54:07AM | -112 | +104 | STL 81%, 71% |
| 08/19 | 11:15:06PM | -112 | +104 | STL 86% |
| 08/19 | 11:15:06PM | -118 | -102 | STL 92% |
| 08/19 | 10:53:48PM | -118 | -102 | STL 75% |
| 08/19 | 07:55:17PM | -115 | -104 | CIN 92% |
| 08/19 | 04:49:37PM | -120 | +100 | |
| 08/19 | 04:49:37PM | -120 | +100 | |
| 08/19 | 04:47:39PM | -114 | -106 | |
| 08/19 | 03:18:25PM | -118 | -102 | |
| 08/19 | 02:46:38PM | -110 | -110 | |
| 08/19 | 02:46:38PM | -110 | -110 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/19 | 11:15:06PM | 9o-108 | 9u-111 | O90% |
| 08/19 | 04:47:39PM | 9o-112 | 9u-108 | |
| 08/19 | 02:46:38PM | 9o-110 | 9u-110 |
Cardinals vs Reds Key Matchups and Game Preview
Cardinals Rotation Edge
Michael McGreevy takes the ball for St. Louis at 5-9 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 132.0 innings. He has allowed 127 hits with 91 strikeouts, 34 walks and 18 home runs, giving the Cardinals a clear edge in run prevention over the finale.
Reds Lineup Power
Cincinnati counters with Brady Singer, who enters 5-11 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 125.2 innings. Singer has surrendered 139 hits, 42 walks and 24 homers while striking out 104, numbers that open the door for St. Louis' contact-oriented lineup.
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St. Louis Bullpen and Depth
St. Louis owns the better overall pitching profile, entering with a 4.01 team ERA and 1.32 WHIP compared with Cincinnati's 4.48 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, a gap that extends beyond the starters and into the depth of both staffs.
Cincinnati Home Splits
Cincinnati has been more comfortable in day games at 26-24 compared with the Cardinals' 23-28 mark, giving the Reds a slight situational advantage in this getaway-day matinee despite trailing in the loss column overall.
Walker and Burleson Carry Cardinals
Jordan Walker has been a major run producer for St. Louis with 25 home runs, a .288 average and 90 RBI. Alec Burleson is hitting .289 with a .354 OBP, .491 slugging percentage, 21 homers and 92 RBI, giving the Cardinals two reliable middle-of-the-order threats.
De La Cruz and Stewart Fuel Reds
Cincinnati is led by Sal Stewart's 27 home runs and 94 RBI, while Elly De La Cruz carries a .259 average, .340 OBP and .468 slugging percentage. The Reds also hold the power edge overall with 164 homers compared with 132 for the Cardinals.
St. Louis comes in at 65-63, three games better in the loss column than 61-66 Cincinnati. St. Louis also owns the better batting average (.241 to .226) and on-base percentage (.317 to .305) between the two clubs. The recent series has been competitive, with the first four games split and three decided by one run, including Cincinnati's 5-4 win Wednesday.
Betting Trends - STL vs CIN
The market has moved throughout the day, with St. Louis' number tightening from as low as -120 down to -112 by first pitch while Cincinnati climbed from +100 up to +104. Public money has consistently sided with STL, reaching as high as 92% on one update, though a 92% CIN ticket count appeared briefly Wednesday evening before the line corrected back toward St. Louis. On the total, the market has held steady between 9o-108 and 9o-112, with 90% of tickets backing the Over in the most recent report.
Cincinnati Bullpen Concerns
With Tony Santillan, Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft all sidelined, Cincinnati's pitching depth is thinner than its raw staff ERA suggests, which factors into both the run line and total conversation for this finale.
Key Injuries and Things To Know - STL vs CIN
- Cincinnati: Spencer Steer is on the 10-day IL.
- Cincinnati: Pitchers Tony Santillan, Brandon Williamson and Graham Ashcraft are also sidelined.
- St. Louis: Ramon Urias and Max Rajcic are on the 60-day IL.
- Series is tied 2-2 entering the finale, with three of the first four games decided by one run.
Cardinals vs Reds Side and Over/Under Picks
Cardinals Moneyline
With McGreevy's stronger run prevention and control numbers, plus St. Louis' edge in average, OBP and staff performance, the lean is Cardinals moneyline at -112.
Reds and the Total
The total is trickier, but Singer's 4.66 ERA, Cincinnati's bullpen and depth injuries, and the Reds' home-run advantage create enough scoring paths to support the Over 9.
- Moneyline: St. Louis Cardinals -112
- Total: Over 9
Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Cardinals 6, Reds 4, making St. Louis moneyline and Over 9 the preferred bets for this series finale.
- Final Score: Cardinals 6, Reds 4
- Winning Side: St. Louis Cardinals
- Total Result: Over 9
How to Wager On Cardinals vs Reds
Bettors looking to shop the market on this Cardinals vs Reds finale should compare moneyline, run line and total pricing across multiple books, since the line movement above shows real swings on both sides throughout the day. For bettors who want additional tools to sharpen their process on games like this one, these resources can help round out your card:
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- AI picks for data-driven picks across today's slate
- Dimers review for a look at model-based projections
- Oddible review for another AI-driven angle on this matchup
