St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Cardinals vs Pirates prediction is a pitcher-driven NL Central finale at PNC Park, with first pitch set for 12:35 PM ET and the three-game series tied 1-1. Pittsburgh won the opener 2-0 before St. Louis answered with a 5-1 win Wednesday, so this afternoon settles the set. The Pirates sit around -163 on the moneyline, the Cardinals are +134, and the total has dropped to 6.5 runs. Paul Skenes takes the ball for Pittsburgh against Kyle Leahy, and every number below points toward a low-scoring game controlled by the home side. For more daily edges across the league, check out our full slate of MLB picks.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+144)
- Total Pick: Under 6.5 (+102)
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 4, Cardinals 2
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | +134 | +1.5 | Over 6.5 (-123) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -163 | -1.5 (+144) | Under 6.5 (+102) |
Line Movement - Run Line
| Date | St. Louis | Pittsburgh | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +134 | -163 | PIT 70%, PIT 80% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -162 | PIT 70%, PIT 80% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -163 | PIT 70%, PIT 77% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -162 | PIT 70%, PIT 77% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -163 | PIT 70%, PIT 77% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -162 | PIT 73%, PIT 77% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -163 | PIT 73%, PIT 77% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -162 | PIT 73%, PIT 77% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -163 | PIT 72%, PIT 75% |
| 09/24 | +134 | -162 | PIT 72%, PIT 75% |
| 09/23 | +134 | -163 | PIT 92%, PIT 71% |
| 09/23 | +134 | -162 | PIT 92%, PIT 71% |
| 09/23 | +134 | -163 | PIT 90%, PIT 73% |
The price on this game has barely moved. St. Louis has stayed at +134 the whole time, and Pittsburgh has only ticked back and forth between -162 and -163. That stability matters because the Pirates have taken heavy support the entire way, drawing between 70% and 92% of the money and 71% to 80% of the tickets. When one side takes that much action and the number doesn't budge, the market is telling you the opening price was already sharp. The -163 is a fair, settled number, not an inflated public tax.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 6.5 (-123) | 6.5 (+102) | UN 67%, OV 60% |
| 09/24 | 7 (+103) | 7 (-124) | UN 67%, OV 60% |
| 09/24 | 7 (+101) | 7 (-121) | OV 100%, OV 67% |
| 09/23 | 7 (-105) | 7 (-115) |
The total tells a clearer story than the side. This game opened at 7 with the Under at -115, and Under money pushed that juice to -121 and then -124 before the book dropped the number to 6.5. The split matters too. The Over has 60% of the tickets, but the Under has 67% of the money. Bigger bets are on the Under, and the book moved the total down a half run to match them. The drop to 6.5 takes some value off the Under, but the +102 price at the new number still gives bettors plus money on the side the heavier bets have backed since the open.
Cardinals vs Pirates Key Matchups and Game Preview
This is a rubber match between two NL Central clubs heading in different directions. Pittsburgh enters 80-78 and above .500, while St. Louis is 77-81. The first two games set the tone: the opener was a 2-0 Pirates shutout, and the Cardinals needed a 5-1 win Wednesday to even the series. Both games point to limited scoring in this matchup, and with two quality arms on the mound Thursday afternoon, runs should be hard to come by again.
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Cardinals Turn to Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy has been a steady part of the St. Louis rotation. He enters 10-5 with a 3.65 ERA and 129 strikeouts across 138 innings. The ERA is solid and the win total shows he has given his team a chance most times out. The concern is his 1.34 WHIP. Leahy lets runners on base, and against a lineup with a .330 OBP, those runners are dangerous. He can survive traffic in plenty of starts, but he will need to limit the damage with men on to keep this close.
His strikeout rate is respectable at 129 in 138 innings, a little under one per inning. That means he relies on balls in play more than Skenes does, which puts pressure on the St. Louis defense and leaves more room for Pittsburgh's contact hitters to find holes.
Pirates Hand the Ball to Paul Skenes
Don't let Paul Skenes' 10-11 record fool you. The win-loss mark undersells what he does on the mound. Skenes carries a 3.91 ERA, but the real story is his 1.13 WHIP and 192 strikeouts in 168 innings. He keeps runners off base and misses bats at an elite rate, which makes it very hard for an opponent to string together a rally.
That combination is exactly what you want when backing both a favorite and an Under. A pitcher who limits baserunners and piles up strikeouts takes away the multi-run innings that break a low total. Against a St. Louis lineup with just a .315 OBP, Skenes should have plenty of chances to work clean innings.
Pittsburgh Holds the Offensive Edge
The Pirates have the better lineup on paper, and the gap shows up in every slash-line category. Pittsburgh is hitting .254 with a .330 OBP and a .405 slugging percentage. St. Louis sits at .241/.315/.380. That is a 13-point edge in batting average, 15 points in on-base percentage and 25 points in slugging. The Pirates get on base more often and do more damage when they make contact, and that combination is what separates winning a close game from covering a run line.
Pirates Power Bats: Lowe and Gonzales
Brandon Lowe has been the engine of the Pittsburgh offense with 34 home runs and 94 RBIs. His power is the biggest threat to Leahy, especially with runners on thanks to Leahy's 1.34 WHIP. One swing from Lowe with a man aboard could decide this game. Nick Gonzales gives the lineup a different look, hitting .301 and supplying the kind of steady contact that sets the table for the power behind him.
St. Louis Leans on Walker and Burleson
The Cardinals have real power threats of their own. Jordan Walker has 28 home runs, and Alec Burleson has been the team's most complete run producer with a .279 average, 23 homers and a team-high 112 RBIs. Burleson is the hitter Skenes needs to handle most carefully, since he combines average and run production. The problem for St. Louis is depth. Behind those two bats, the team's .315 OBP suggests too few runners on base to give Walker and Burleson consistent RBI chances.
Pittsburgh in Day Games
One of the most useful angles in this matchup is the start time. Pittsburgh is 40-26 in daytime games, a strong mark for a team only two games above .500 overall. With a 12:35 PM ET first pitch at home, the Pirates get to play in the setting where they have been at their best all season. That record strengthens the case for Pittsburgh on the moneyline and on the run line.
Why the Cardinals Face an Uphill Climb
St. Louis has to beat Skenes on the road with the weaker offense, a thinned roster and a starter who allows more traffic than his counterpart. Wednesday's 5-1 win shows the Cardinals can break through, but they would need something similar against a pitcher with a 1.13 WHIP and 192 strikeouts. The +134 price is fair, not generous, and it doesn't offer enough to back a lineup that struggles to get on base.
STL vs PIT Betting Trends
Cardinals Trends
- St. Louis enters Thursday 77-81 on the season.
- The Cardinals were shut out 2-0 in the series opener.
- St. Louis bounced back with a 5-1 win Wednesday to even the series at 1-1.
- Kyle Leahy is 10-5 with a 3.65 ERA on the season.
- St. Louis has held steady at +134 on the moneyline through every line move.
Pirates Trends
- Pittsburgh enters Thursday 80-78 on the season.
- The Pirates are 40-26 in daytime games.
- Pittsburgh won the series opener 2-0.
- The Pirates have drawn between 70% and 92% of the moneyline handle.
- The total has dropped from 7 to 6.5 as Under money came in, with 67% of the handle on the Under.
- The first two games of this series produced three runs and six runs, both under a 6.5 total.
STL vs PIT Key Injuries and Things To Know
St. Louis Injury Report
- Everson Pereira – Injured List
- Blaze Jordan – Injured List
- Joshua Báez – Injured List (oblique, expected to miss the rest of the season)
- Hunter Dobbins – Injured List (pitcher)
- Max Rajcic – Injured List (pitcher)
Pittsburgh Injury Report
- Esmerlyn Valdez – Injured List
- Isaac Mattson – Injured List
- Mitch Keller – Injured List (notable pitching loss)
- Braxton Ashcraft – Injured List (notable pitching loss)
- Endy Rodriguez – Injured List
Things To Know About the Cardinals and Pirates
Both teams are missing lineup depth. For St. Louis, the losses of Pereira, Jordan and Báez thin out a lineup that already ranks behind Pittsburgh in every slash category, and Báez won't be back this season. The absences of Dobbins and Rajcic also cut into the Cardinals' pitching options.
Pittsburgh's biggest losses are on the mound, with Keller and Ashcraft both out. Those absences matter over the course of a series, but they matter less Thursday because Skenes is starting. If he works deep into the game as his 168 innings suggest he can, the Pirates' depleted pitching staff won't be tested much.
Pirates vs Cardinals Side and Over/Under Picks
Pirates Run Line Pick
The best bet on the side is Pittsburgh -1.5 (+144). The moneyline at -163 is the safer play, but the run line offers plus money on a team with every major edge in this matchup. Pittsburgh has the better starter by WHIP and strikeouts, the better offense across the board, the home field and a 40-26 record in day games.
The reason to take the run line over the moneyline is the matchup of Leahy's 1.34 WHIP against Pittsburgh's .330 OBP. Leahy will likely pitch with runners on, and Lowe's 34-homer power makes a crooked number a real possibility. If Skenes keeps St. Louis to one or two runs, a two-run margin is well within reach. At +144, you are getting paid well for the outcome that fits the matchup.
Under Pick for St. Louis at Pittsburgh
On the total, the pick is Under 6.5 (+102). The market has already moved this direction, dropping from 7 to 6.5 with 67% of the money on the Under while 60% of the tickets sit on the Over. Following the bigger money makes sense here, and the matchup supports it.
Skenes' 1.13 WHIP and 192 strikeouts make it hard to see St. Louis scoring more than two or three runs, especially with a thinned lineup posting a .315 OBP. Leahy's 3.65 ERA suggests he can keep Pittsburgh in check for most of his outing, even if he allows traffic. The first two games of this series totaled three and six runs, and both stayed under this number. A game in the 5-6 run range is the most likely outcome.
Pirates vs Cardinals Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 4, Cardinals 2
- Winner: Pittsburgh Pirates
- Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+144) covers
- Total: 6 runs, Under 6.5 hits
Skenes should limit traffic and rack up strikeouts against a St. Louis lineup that struggles to reach base. Burleson or Walker could produce a run or two, but the Cardinals don't have the depth to sustain a rally. Pittsburgh's lineup should make Leahy pay for his baserunners, with Lowe's power and Gonzales' contact giving the Pirates enough to pull away. A 4-2 Pirates win cashes the run line and the Under.
How to Wager On Cardinals vs Pirates
With two strong starters and a low total, this game rewards bettors who pick the right market. If you are confident in Skenes and the Pirates' daytime form, the -1.5 run line at +144 gives you the best return for the expected outcome. Bettors who want less risk can take Pittsburgh on the moneyline at -163. That price has held firm despite heavy Pirates action, which is a sign it is a fair number.
For the total, the Under 6.5 at +102 lets you follow the money that pushed this number down from 7. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Pirates with the Under, since a controlled game from Skenes helps both bets win together. Whatever market you choose, shop for the best number before first pitch at 12:35 PM ET, since small price differences add up over a full season.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks tools. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or our Oddible review to see how another data-driven platform can help you spot edges across the MLB board.
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