St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday September 23 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates meet again Wednesday night at PNC Park, and this Cardinals vs Pirates prediction is built on momentum, pitching form and a market that briefly flirted with the underdog before snapping right back. Pittsburgh blanked St. Louis 2-0 on Monday to stretch its winning streak to five games, and the Pirates now sit at 80-77 while the Cardinals slip to 76-81. The pitching matchup pits a struggling left-hander in Matthew Liberatore against a Pirates right-hander in Lake Bachar who has been far more effective at keeping hitters off the bases. With a 7.5 total and a slight home favorite, there are two clear angles to target. For more betting edges across the league, check out our full slate of MLB predictions, then read on for the full breakdown of the side, the total and the projected final score.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Side Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-121)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-107)
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 4, Cardinals 2
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | +100 | +1.5 (-204) | Over 7.5 (-112) |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -121 | -1.5 (+167) | Under 7.5 (-107) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | St. Louis | Pittsburgh | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/22 | +100 | -121 | PIT 100%, PIT 100% |
| 09/22 | -104 | -115 | PIT 100%, PIT 100% |
| 09/22 | +100 | -121 | - |
The side opened with Pittsburgh at -121 and St. Louis at even money, then took a brief detour. The Pirates dropped to -115 while the Cardinals flipped to a slight -104, turning this into a near pick'em for a short window. That adjustment did not last. The number quickly returned to Pirates -121 and Cardinals +100, and the betting splits show Pittsburgh drawing 100% of the money and 100% of the tickets. The quick rebound to the opening price, combined with complete public support, shows the market settling firmly on the Pirates as the rightful home favorite. Bettors who caught the -115 window got the best number, but -121 remains a fair price for the side with the pitching and offensive edges.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/22 | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -107 | - |
| 09/22 | 7.5 -118 | 7.5 -102 | - |
| 09/22 | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -107 | - |
The total has held at 7.5 throughout, opening with the Over at -112 and the Under at -107. The Over briefly climbed to -118 while the Under dipped to -102, which lined up with the same short window when the moneyline moved toward St. Louis. Both markets then snapped back to their opening prices together. That synchronized reversal suggests the brief move was an adjustment the market did not stand behind. With the number back at Under -107, bettors can take the Under at a modest price without paying a premium.
Key Matchups and Game Preview: Cardinals vs Pirates
Pittsburgh enters this game riding a five-game winning streak, and Monday's 2-0 shutout showed how well its pitching has been controlling games. St. Louis needs a response, but it has to find one against a starter who has limited hits all season while sending its own struggling lefty to the mound. The details favor the home team and point toward another game decided by a small number of runs.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Liberatore vs Bachar: Pirates Own the Mound Edge
Pittsburgh right-hander Lake Bachar is 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 83.1 innings. The record undersells his performance. Bachar has allowed just 60 hits in 83.1 innings and has struck out 87, giving him more than a strikeout per inning with a hit rate well below one per inning. The one area to watch is his 35 walks, which gives St. Louis a path to create traffic if its hitters can show patience. Even so, a pitcher who rarely allows hits can survive some free passes, especially against a lineup with a .314 OBP.
Cardinals Lefty Liberatore Battling Hard Contact
St. Louis starts left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who has struggled to a 5-14 record with a 5.36 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 149.1 innings. He has allowed 167 hits and 27 home runs while striking out 148 and walking 55. The strikeout numbers are respectable, but the volume of hits and home runs is the problem. Liberatore has consistently allowed hard contact, and that is a dangerous trait against a Pittsburgh lineup with 181 home runs this season. Limiting damage on balls in play will be the key to whether he can keep the Cardinals in this game.
Pirates Offense Led by Lowe and Gonzales
Pittsburgh has the stronger offensive profile, batting .254 with a .331 OBP and .405 slugging percentage while scoring 750 runs and hitting 181 home runs. Brandon Lowe leads the club with 33 home runs and 93 RBI while batting .260, making him the biggest power threat against a pitcher who has allowed 27 homers. Nick Gonzales has been one of the most consistent hitters in the lineup with a .302 average and .365 OBP, giving the Pirates a reliable table-setter who can create scoring chances for Lowe and the middle of the order.
St. Louis Run Producers Walker and Burleson
The Cardinals are batting .241 with a .314 OBP and .380 slugging percentage while producing 704 runs and 161 home runs. They trail Pittsburgh in every major offensive category, but they still have two legitimate run producers. Jordan Walker has provided 28 homers and 100 RBI, and Alec Burleson is batting .280 with 23 homers and a team-high 111 RBI. Those two bats are the most likely source of St. Louis offense against Bachar, particularly if the Cardinals can take advantage of his walk rate and get runners on base ahead of them.
Pittsburgh Pitching Staff Holds a Slight Edge
The full-season staff numbers are close, but they also lean toward the Pirates. Pittsburgh carries a 4.16 team ERA and 1.30 WHIP, while St. Louis sits at a 4.28 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. That modest gap, combined with a clear edge in the starting pitching matchup, gives Pittsburgh the advantage in run prevention from start to finish. Monday's shutout was a reminder of what this staff can do when it is locked in.
Betting Trends: STL vs PIT
- Pittsburgh enters at 80-77, while St. Louis sits at 76-81.
- The Pirates have won five straight games.
- Pittsburgh won Monday's series opener 2-0, a game that produced just 2 total runs.
- Pittsburgh opened at -121, dipped to -115 and returned to -121.
- The Pirates are drawing 100% of the money and 100% of the tickets on the moneyline.
- The total has held at 7.5, with the Over moving from -112 to -118 before returning to -112.
- Bachar has allowed 60 hits in 83.1 innings, while Liberatore has allowed 167 hits in 149.1 innings.
Pittsburgh Market Signals
The brief move toward St. Louis on both the moneyline and the total was erased almost immediately, and both markets returned to their opening numbers. When a line moves and then fully reverses, it usually means the original number was the one the market trusted. With Pittsburgh holding every dollar and ticket on the side and the total back at its opener, the setup favors a home win in a game that stays under the number.
Key Injuries and Things To Know: STL vs PIT
Cardinals Injury Report
- Everson Pereira: 10-day IL
- Blaze Jordan: 10-day IL
- Joshua Baez: Sidelined
- Hunter Dobbins: Sidelined
- Max Rajcic: Sidelined
The Cardinals are missing depth in both the lineup and on the pitching staff. Losing Pereira and Jordan reduces the options around Walker and Burleson, while Dobbins and Rajcic being sidelined limits the arms available behind Liberatore if he runs into trouble early.
Pirates Injury Report
- Braxton Ashcraft: Sidelined
- Mitch Keller: Sidelined
- Endy Rodriguez: 60-day IL
- Esmerlyn Valdez: 10-day IL
Pittsburgh is without Ashcraft and Keller on the pitching side, along with Rodriguez and Valdez. Even with those absences, the Pirates have continued to win, and their current five-game streak shows the depth has held up. Bachar's efficiency should also help reduce the burden on the bullpen Wednesday.
Cardinals vs Pirates Side and Over/Under Picks
Pirates Moneyline Pick
With a projected two-run margin, the moneyline at -121 is the cleaner play than laying -1.5 at +167. Pittsburgh has the better starter, the stronger offense and a slightly better staff overall. Bachar's ability to limit hits matches up well against a Cardinals lineup with a .314 OBP, while the Pirates bats have a favorable matchup against a pitcher who has allowed 27 home runs. A home team riding a five-game winning streak at this price is a solid position.
Under 7.5 in Pittsburgh
The Under 7.5 at -107 fits the way this series has started. Monday's opener produced only two runs, Bachar has been excellent at suppressing hits, and the Cardinals offense has struggled to generate consistent production. Liberatore is the main risk to the Under, but the projected 4-2 final lands comfortably below the total.
- Side Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (-121)
- Total Pick: Under 7.5 (-107)
Final Score Prediction
Expect Bachar to keep the Cardinals quiet by limiting hits and pitching around the occasional walk, while Pittsburgh's lineup takes advantage of the hard contact Liberatore has allowed all season. Lowe and Gonzales should provide enough offense to give the Pirates control, and Pittsburgh extends its winning streak to six games.
- Projected Final Score: Pirates 4, Cardinals 2
- Side Result: Pirates moneyline cashes
- Total Result: Under 7.5 cashes with 6 total runs
How to Wager On Cardinals vs Pirates
The best approach is to pair the Pirates moneyline with the Under 7.5. Both picks are rooted in the same edge, Bachar's ability to limit St. Louis, and a 4-2 type of result cashes both. For bettors who want a bigger payout on Pittsburgh, the -1.5 at +167 is available, but with a projected two-run margin, the moneyline is the safer path to a winning ticket.
Line shopping matters in this game. The moneyline has already moved between -115 and -121, and the Over has shifted between -112 and -118, so different sportsbooks may be offering slightly different prices. Grabbing the best available number on the Pirates and the Under can make a real difference over the course of a season.
If you want to compare this handicap with model-based projections, explore our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our full Dimers review to see how its simulations handle MLB sides and totals, along with our Oddible review for another way to find value before placing your wager on Cardinals vs Pirates.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $250 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 5 days
New DraftKings Customer: SPEND $5, GET $200 IN BONUSES
