Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 17 2026
Well, we were supposed to have baseball Friday night. Instead, everybody sat around Cleveland watching it rain. They finally called the game off, which was probably the smartest decision anybody made all evening. So Tampa Bay and Cleveland will try again Saturday at Progressive Field, with first pitch scheduled for 8:08 PM ET. TBS and truTV have the game. Cleveland leads this ALCS 2-1, and I have to tell you, I'm starting to wonder what's happened to Tampa Bay's bats. The Rays won 98 games this year. You don't do that by accident. But Cleveland has been making them look pretty ordinary lately. The line was sitting around -110 on both sides before the rainout, with the total at 6.5. Those numbers could change now that the pitching plans are up in the air. And that's where things get interesting. You can find more postseason action with our free MLB picks.
Starting Pitchers: Nick Martinez vs Cleveland's Pitching Plans
Nick Martinez was supposed to pitch for Tampa Bay on Friday, and as far as we know, he's still the guy. He went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA during the regular season. Pretty darn good. His last playoff start against the Yankees wasn't anything special, though. Two runs in 3 2/3 innings, five hits, three strikeouts. He didn't get knocked around, but he wasn't exactly mowing guys down either. Tampa Bay needs more than three or four innings out of him Saturday. The Rays have a good bullpen, but you don't want to start calling for help in the fourth inning with three more games potentially coming over the next three days.
Now Cleveland's pitching situation? That's a little more interesting. Shawn Armstrong was supposed to open Friday, and the Guardians were planning to make it a bullpen game. I don't mind that idea in October when you've got good relievers, but there's a catch. You burn through four or five guys Saturday, and what happens Sunday? There's no off-day anymore. Cleveland could decide to start Foster Griffin instead. He gave them five innings in Game 1 and allowed two runs. Nothing wrong with that. I'd rather see a guy give me five decent innings than have to start making pitching changes before everybody's settled into their seats. But we'll see what Cleveland decides.
Tampa Bay Rays Better Start Hitting The Baseball
The Rays are down 2-1, and I'm not sure what to make of their offense right now. They had a chance to grab Game 3 Thursday. Chandler Simpson hit a two-run triple in the fourth inning, Tampa Bay went ahead 2-1, and you figured maybe that would wake everybody up. Nope. That was it. Cleveland came back with a two-run homer in the fifth, and the Rays never scored again. Three hits all afternoon. Three! You're not going to win many playoff games doing that. Tampa Bay swept the Yankees to get here, but the Guardians have made this a completely different kind of series.
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And the strikeouts. Good grief. Tampa Bay struck out 13 times Thursday. They've gone down swinging or looking 27 times in the first three games of this series. That's not the same lineup we watched during the regular season. The Rays were one of the better contact teams in baseball, and now they're chasing pitches they normally leave alone. Cleveland's pitchers deserve credit. They're not giving Tampa Bay much to hit. But sooner or later somebody in that dugout has to make an adjustment. You can't keep swinging for the fences when the other team's pitchers are making you look foolish.
Junior Caminero struck out four times Thursday. Four trips to the plate, four strikeouts. That's a rough afternoon for anybody, especially a guy Tampa Bay needs to produce. Yandy Díaz had a chance to do some damage late and couldn't get the run home. Simpson has given them some life, but one triple isn't going to carry you through an entire series. The pitching has actually been pretty decent. Tampa Bay's bullpen threw four scoreless innings in Game 3. That's the frustrating part. The Rays are getting enough pitching to stay in these games. They just aren't giving their pitchers much help.
Cleveland Guardians Are Playing Some Pretty Good October Baseball
I'll tell you what I like about Cleveland. They don't seem particularly interested in how many games Tampa Bay won during the regular season. The Guardians won 85. The Rays won 98. Big deal. Cleveland has won two of the first three games, and the Guardians are doing it without needing to score eight or nine runs every night. Thursday was a perfect example. They were trailing 2-1 in the fifth when Petey Halpin hit a two-run homer. Just like that, Cleveland was back in front. And that was the ballgame. Sometimes one swing is all you need in October.
Cleveland didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball Thursday, either. Six hits, three runs. But the Guardians have been getting the hits that matter, and their pitchers have taken care of the rest. Gavin Williams struck out nine in five innings in Game 3. Nine! Tampa Bay looked uncomfortable against him most of the afternoon. Then Cleveland went to the bullpen, and the Rays didn't have much luck there either. That's what makes the Guardians dangerous. They don't need their starter to throw eight innings. Get them into the sixth or seventh with a lead, and they've got guys who can finish the job.
Halpin's homer was his first of the postseason. Pretty good time to hit it, wouldn't you say? José Ramírez is still the guy Tampa Bay has to worry about whenever he comes to the plate, and Steven Kwan can make a pitcher work for every out. But the bullpen is what has me leaning Cleveland. Cade Smith already has two saves in this series. Erik Sabrowski and Hunter Gaddis have been doing their jobs, too. And now they all got Friday off because of the rain. That's not a bad little bonus when you're trying to win four games before the other team does.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Picks and Predictions
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-110)
I'm taking Cleveland. Look, Martinez had a good regular season, and Tampa Bay is perfectly capable of coming out Saturday and scoring five runs. That's what worries me. The Rays didn't win 98 games because they forgot how to hit. But I'm not going to bet on them suddenly figuring everything out when Cleveland's pitchers have been giving them fits for three games. Thirteen strikeouts Thursday. Three hits. That's hard to ignore. Cleveland's bullpen is rested, the Guardians are at home, and they've been getting the big hit when they need one. I'd like to know who's starting for Cleveland before putting the ticket in my pocket, but at roughly even money, I'll take the team that's been playing better baseball. The Guardians have earned that much.
Under 6.5 Runs (+100)
Six and a half runs isn't much room to work with. I know that. One bad inning, a couple of walks, somebody hits a ball into the seats, and suddenly we're sitting here wondering why we took an under. But have you watched Tampa Bay hit lately? The Rays scored one run in Game 2 and two in Game 3. Cleveland hasn't exactly been piling up runs either. These teams just played a 3-1 game and a 3-2 game. Martinez can pitch, Cleveland has a rested bullpen, and both lineups have been having trouble putting together big innings. The one thing that bothers me is the possibility of Cleveland going with a bullpen game. Sometimes those work beautifully. Sometimes the third guy out of the pen can't find the strike zone, and there goes your ticket. Still, I think we're looking at another tight one. Maybe 3-2 Cleveland. Maybe 4-2. I'll take the under.
Final Picks: Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-110) and Under 6.5 Runs (+100)
This article was completed on October 16, 2026. The quoted odds are pre-postponement reference prices. Starting pitchers, betting lines, and other game information may change before Saturday's first pitch.
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