Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction for Friday October 23 2026
Forty-four years since Milwaukee played in a World Series. That’s a long damn time to wait for another shot. The Brewers finally made it back, and they didn’t exactly sneak in. They won 103 games during the regular season, knocked out San Diego, then swept the Dodgers. Four straight against Los Angeles. Milwaukee fans have probably been waiting a year just for that part.
Tampa Bay isn’t here to admire the scenery. The Rays won 98 games, swept the Yankees and beat Cleveland in six. They’ve been to the World Series twice before and lost both times. Milwaukee’s only previous trip ended the same way back in 1982. One of these teams is finally getting a championship.
Game 1 is Friday, October 23, 2026, at American Family Field in Milwaukee. First pitch is at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. The Brewers are favored at -149, Tampa Bay is +134, and the total is six runs. The stadium has a retractable roof, with Friday’s roof position still to be determined. Find more games on our free MLB picks page.
Starting Pitchers
Drew Rasmussen is expected to start for Tampa Bay, and the Rays couldn’t ask for much more from him lately. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA during the regular season. In three playoff starts, he’s given up three earned runs over 21 innings. Twenty-three strikeouts, three walks. He’s been terrific. Rasmussen faced Milwaukee in April and allowed one earned run over five innings. The Brewers got three hits off him. That was six months ago, and I wouldn’t make too much of one early-season start, but he certainly didn’t have trouble with this lineup then.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for Milwaukee. Sixteen wins, a 1.80 ERA, 252 strikeouts and a 0.80 WHIP during the regular season. Opponents hit .157 against him. Those numbers are almost silly. October has been a little different. Misiorowski has made two starts and thrown just 8 1/3 innings. He’s allowed three earned runs and struck out 11, but the pitch counts have been a problem. Four walks haven’t helped. The Brewers need him to settle down and give them some innings Friday. They’ve had plenty of rest, so there shouldn’t be an excuse about tired arms.
I like Milwaukee’s starter, but Rasmussen has been the steadier postseason pitcher. That’s what makes this interesting. Misiorowski might be the most talented guy on the mound. Rasmussen might be the one still pitching in the seventh.
Tampa Bay Rays Aren’t Going To Be An Easy Out
The Rays went 98-64 during the regular season and have won seven of their nine playoff games. They swept the Yankees, then beat Cleveland in six games to win the American League pennant. Tampa Bay lost Game 3 against the Guardians but won the next three, finishing things with a 7-3 victory. That’s a pretty good response from a team that had just dropped its first game of October.
Tampa Bay’s pitching has been the biggest reason it’s still playing. The starters have been good, and the bullpen hasn’t given away many games. The Rays don’t need to score seven runs to win. That’s important against Milwaukee, where runs can be hard to find. The one thing I’d like to see from Tampa Bay is some patience against Misiorowski. Don’t go chasing everything he throws. Make him work. He hasn’t lasted five innings in either postseason start, and getting into Milwaukee’s bullpen early would give the Rays a better chance.
Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda give Tampa Bay some punch in the lineup. Caminero can change a game with one swing, while Díaz is the kind of hitter who can make a pitcher work through a long at-bat. Freddy Peralta has also been outstanding this postseason and should be a factor later in the series. Shane McClanahan is out, which hurts the pitching depth. The Rays have gotten this far without him, though, and Rasmussen has been plenty good enough to start Game 1.
Milwaukee Brewers Finally Have Their Chance
Milwaukee finished 103-59, the best record in baseball. The Brewers beat San Diego in four games, then swept the Dodgers in the NLCS. They won those four games 2-1, 7-4, 6-2 and 6-4. No drama about needing a seventh game. They took care of business and went home to wait for Tampa Bay.
The Brewers aren’t a team that needs to hit four home runs to win. They’ll take a walk, move a runner, steal a base and make the other pitcher earn his outs. Their pitching has been good enough that a couple of runs can hold up. Milwaukee also won two of three against Tampa Bay during the regular season, although that series was back in April. I’m more interested in what the Brewers just did to the Dodgers. Los Angeles had plenty of hitters who could hurt them, and Milwaukee still won four straight.
Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Brice Turang have given Milwaukee plenty of production this season. Jake Bauers has chipped in during the playoffs, too. Misiorowski is the guy everybody will be watching Friday. He’s got the stuff to strike out a dozen hitters, but I’d settle for six good innings if I were managing Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder situation has left his availability uncertain for the World Series. The Brewers have enough arms to handle that, but they don’t want to be asking the bullpen for five innings in Game 1.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-149)
I’m taking Milwaukee, although I don’t love the price. Rasmussen has been outstanding, and Tampa Bay has already beaten two pretty good teams to get here. This isn’t going to be easy. But Milwaukee has been sitting at home after sweeping Los Angeles, and Misiorowski has had time to get ready. I expect a better outing from him than we saw in the first two rounds. The Brewers have also been finding ways to win close games all season. Give me Milwaukee at home, even if I have to lay -149.
Over 6 Runs (Even)
Six runs. That’s not much room for error if you’re betting the under. Rasmussen could throw seven shutout innings, and Misiorowski might strike out ten, so I understand the number. But Milwaukee’s starter hasn’t been working deep into games lately, and Tampa Bay can make him throw pitches. One bad inning from either bullpen could put this total in trouble. I don’t expect either team to score eight by itself. I just think seven combined runs is a reasonable target. I’ll take the over at even money and call it Milwaukee 4, Tampa Bay 3.
Final Picks: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-149) and Over 6 Runs (Even)
This preview was completed October 22, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines, injuries, and other game information may change before first pitch.
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Get $350 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 7 days
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass!
