Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions for Saturday October 24 2026
Milwaukee won Friday, but that ninth inning nearly turned into a disaster. The Brewers had a 3-2 lead, got what looked like a game-ending double play, and then had to come back onto the field because Cooper Pratt missed the bag. Suddenly Tampa Bay had runners at second and third with a chance to steal the opener. Trevor Megill got the strikeout he needed, and everybody in Milwaukee could finally relax. I wouldn't be surprised if these two teams put us through something similar Saturday. Neither club seems particularly interested in making anything easy.
The Rays and Brewers play Game 2 of the World Series Saturday, October 24, 2026, at American Family Field in Milwaukee. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET on FOX. Milwaukee leads the series 1-0 and is a -120 favorite, with Tampa Bay at +101 and the total at 6.5 runs. Drew Rasmussen starts for the Rays against Logan Henderson for Milwaukee. The temperature outside should be around 60 degrees, with dry conditions expected. The roof will probably be closed, although the official decision hasn't been announced. If it is closed, the wind won't have anything to do with how far the baseball travels.
Tampa Bay Rays Have a Better Chance With Rasmussen
Tampa Bay went 98-64 during the regular season, including 43-38 on the road. The Rays swept the Yankees and then beat Cleveland in six games to get here. Friday's loss was frustrating because they had a chance to tie it in the ninth, but Milwaukee's pitching didn't give them much room to work with before that. Nick Martinez allowed two runs in five innings, which was a decent enough start. The Rays just couldn't get much going against Jacob Misiorowski. Now they're down a game, and Rasmussen gets the ball. I'd feel considerably better about Tampa Bay's chances Saturday than I did Friday.
The Rays hit .258 during the regular season, with a .326 on-base percentage and 169 home runs. They weren't a big home run team, but they didn't strike out much either. Their 18.8% strikeout rate was the lowest in baseball. That becomes interesting against Henderson, who has struck out only six batters in nine postseason innings. Tampa Bay hasn't exactly been tearing up October pitching, though. The Rays entered the World Series hitting .232 with a .293 on-base percentage. Those numbers explain why they've had to lean so heavily on their pitching. Friday was another example. Two runs aren't going to win many games, even with a good bullpen.
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Rasmussen has been awfully good lately. He's made three postseason starts, pitched 21 innings, and allowed three earned runs. That's a 1.29 ERA, with 23 strikeouts and only three walks. Milwaukee drafted him back in 2018, so there's a little history there, although that doesn't mean much once the game starts. What matters is how consistently Rasmussen has been getting ahead of hitters. He faced the Brewers earlier this season and allowed one earned run over five innings while striking out eight. Tampa Bay has been careful with him because of his previous elbow problems, and the extra rest should help. The Rays are still without Shane McClanahan and Edwin Uceta, but Rasmussen is the pitcher they wanted in this spot.
Milwaukee Brewers Don't Need Much Offense With Their Pitching
Milwaukee finished 103-59 and went 55-26 at home. The Brewers beat San Diego in four games, swept the Dodgers, and now have the opening game of the World Series in their pocket. Friday was a pretty typical Milwaukee win. Christian Yelich drove in a run with a triple in the first, William Contreras added another, and Jackson Chourio singled home what turned out to be the winning run in the seventh. Three runs. Nothing spectacular. But Misiorowski gave them five good innings, and the bullpen took care of the rest. Well, almost. That ninth inning got a little more exciting than anybody wanted.
The Brewers scored 832 runs during the regular season, compared with 736 for Tampa Bay. They also led baseball with a 10.6% walk rate. Milwaukee is patient at the plate, and that's helped the Brewers wear down pitchers all year. But Rasmussen doesn't give away many free passes. Three walks in 21 postseason innings is a pretty good indication that Milwaukee is going to have to earn its way on base. The Brewers were hitting .250 with a .343 on-base percentage through their first eight playoff games. They don't need a bunch of home runs to score, but they do need baserunners. Rasmussen has been making those difficult to come by.
Henderson went 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA in 18 regular-season starts. That's an excellent rookie season, and Milwaukee has every reason to trust him. His first playoff start against San Diego went well enough, with one earned run in five innings. The Dodgers gave him more trouble. Henderson allowed four runs in four innings, walked three, and made two errors. He's now walked five batters in nine postseason innings. That's the number I'd be concerned about. Tampa Bay puts the ball in play, and a couple of walks could make a routine inning considerably more difficult. Milwaukee has a good bullpen behind Henderson, and Brandon Woodruff is back on the World Series roster. Quinn Priester remains unavailable. The Brewers have pitching depth, but Henderson probably needs to be sharper than he was against Los Angeles.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline +101
I'm taking Tampa Bay at +101. Rasmussen has been better than Henderson in the postseason, and I think that's enough to give the Rays a slight advantage. Milwaukee has the better offense, and playing at home certainly helps, but Rasmussen isn't the kind of pitcher who's going to put three or four runners on base with walks. The Brewers have made a living doing that to pitchers all season. Henderson, meanwhile, has walked five batters in nine playoff innings. That worries me against Tampa Bay because the Rays aren't going to strike out 12 or 13 times and let him cruise through the lineup. I could see Henderson pitching well, and Milwaukee's bullpen is capable of protecting a small lead. That's the part that makes me hesitate. But if Rasmussen gives Tampa Bay another six or seven good innings, the Rays won't need much offense. I think they get enough to win this one.
Under 6.5 Runs
Six and a half runs is a tight number, but I'm taking the under. Friday finished 3-2, and I don't see much reason to expect a completely different kind of game Saturday. Rasmussen has allowed three earned runs in 21 playoff innings. Henderson's 3.00 postseason ERA isn't bad either, although his control has been shaky. Tampa Bay hasn't been hitting particularly well, and Milwaukee is facing a pitcher who rarely puts anybody on base for free. The biggest concern is Henderson getting into trouble early. If he walks a couple of hitters and somebody finds a gap, we could have three runs on the board before he settles down. And if Milwaukee gets to Rasmussen, the under could be in trouble just as quickly. But I'm expecting both teams to have to work for their runs. Tampa Bay winning 3-2 wouldn't surprise me. Neither would a 2-1 game going the other way. I'll stick with the under.
Final Picks: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline +101 and Under 6.5 Runs
Preview completed October 24, 2026. Betting lines, starting lineups, pitcher availability, and roof conditions may change before first pitch.
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