Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction for Wednesday October 7 2026
The Tampa Bay Rays visit the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, for Game 3 of the American League Division Series. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET with coverage on TBS and truTV. Tampa Bay finished the regular season 98-64 overall and 43-38 on the road, while New York went 93-68 overall and 46-34 at home. The Rays lead the series 2-0 after winning Game 1 by a 1-0 score and Game 2 by a 5-2 margin. DraftKings lists New York as a -162 moneyline favorite, with Tampa Bay at +134. The Yankees are +144 at -1.5 runs, while the Rays are -174 at +1.5. The total is 7 runs, with the Over at -120 and Under at +100. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more MLB predictions throughout the postseason.
Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay is scheduled to start Nick Martinez, although no individual postseason statistics were listed in the information available for this matchup. The right-hander takes the ball with the Rays holding a commanding 2-0 series advantage and needing one more victory to advance. Tampa Bay has allowed only two runs through the first two games, so Martinez doesn't necessarily need to dominate if the rest of the staff continues performing at its current level.
New York counters with Max Fried, who enters at 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP through six postseason innings. The left-hander has allowed three hits and one walk while striking out six, with one home run surrendered. New York couldn't ask for a much better starting-pitching situation with its season on the line, and Fried's early postseason numbers give the Yankees a legitimate opportunity to extend the series.
Tampa Bay Has Completely Changed the Series
Tampa Bay arrived in this matchup with the better regular-season record, and the Rays have backed it up by winning the first two games. Game 1 was a 1-0 pitchers' duel before Tampa Bay created considerably more separation in Monday's 5-2 victory. The Rays are now one win away from eliminating New York and have won four of their last five games.
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The Rays hit .258 with 736 runs, 1,405 hits and 169 home runs during the regular season. They posted a .326 on-base percentage and .402 slugging percentage. Tampa Bay didn't possess New York's home-run power, but the Rays finished with significant advantages in batting average, hits and on-base percentage.
Tampa Bay's pitching has been the bigger story in this series. The Rays finished the season with a 3.70 ERA and excellent 1.14 WHIP while holding opponents to a .229 batting average. They've been even better against New York, surrendering only two runs over the first 18 innings. The challenge now is carrying that success onto the road, where Tampa Bay was a much more ordinary 43-38 during the regular season.
New York Returns Home Facing Elimination
The Yankees have reached the point where their impressive regular-season numbers no longer matter unless they can turn them into runs. New York has scored only twice in the series and was shut out in Game 1. That's a dramatic change from the offense that scored nine runs in consecutive victories over Boston immediately before this series began.
New York hit .235 with 739 runs, 1,250 hits and 223 home runs during the regular season. The Yankees produced a .311 on-base percentage and .409 slugging percentage. Their biggest offensive advantage was power, finishing with 54 more home runs than Tampa Bay despite scoring only three more total runs.
The Yankees also finished with a 3.24 ERA while limiting opponents to a .224 batting average. They recorded 1,450 strikeouts against 488 walks. Those season-long numbers remain impressive, and New York now returns to Yankee Stadium, where it went 46-34. The Yankees have the pitching and power to respond, but there is no longer any room for another quiet offensive night.
Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks and Prediction
Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline (-162)
New York -162 is the side pick despite Tampa Bay's 2-0 series advantage. The Yankees haven't shown enough offensively through the first two games, but the situation changes significantly with the series moving to Yankee Stadium and New York getting an excellent starting-pitching matchup. The Yankees finished with the better team ERA and opponent batting average while also hitting 54 more home runs than Tampa Bay. The price isn't cheap, but with New York facing elimination and its starter entering with a 1.50 postseason ERA and 0.67 WHIP, this is the spot where I expect the Yankees to finally break through and extend the series.
Pick: Under 7 (+100)
I'm staying with the Under after it cashed in both of the first two games. Game 1 produced only one run and Game 2 finished with seven, meaning these teams have combined for just eight runs across 18 innings. Tampa Bay has allowed only two runs in the series, while New York finished the regular season with a 3.24 ERA and .224 opponent batting average. The Yankees also enter with a starter carrying a 1.50 postseason ERA and 0.67 WHIP. At plus money, the Under 7 offers enough value even with the possibility of a push at exactly seven runs.
Final Picks: New York Yankees Moneyline (-162) and Under 7 (+100)
This preview was completed on October 6, 2026. Starting pitchers, betting lines and other game information are subject to change before the game begins.
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