Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Thursday's Rays vs Yankees prediction is built around one of the best pitchers in baseball, and it comes with one of the lowest totals on the board. Tampa Bay and New York meet at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 PM ET, with the Yankees leading the four-game AL East series 2-1 after a 2-0 opener, a 6-1 Rays win and a 9-2 Yankees rout. Tampa Bay is 96-62 and New York is 91-67. The Yankees are -150 on the moneyline and +153 on the -1.5 run line, the Rays are +124, and the total has dropped to 6. Cam Schlittler takes a 1.94 ERA and 0.91 WHIP to the mound against Ian Seymour, and that gap outweighs the Yankees' injury problems in the lineup. For more daily betting edges, check out our full board of MLB predictions.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Run Line Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (+153)
- Total Pick: Under 6 (-101)
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Rays 1
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | +124 | +1.5 | Over 6 (-119) |
| New York Yankees | -150 | -1.5 (+153) | Under 6 (-101) |
Line Movement - Moneyline
| Date | Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | +124 | -150 | NYY 89%, NYY 77% |
| 09/24 | +129 | -156 | NYY 82%, NYY 72% |
| 09/23 | +129 | -155 | NYY 75%, NYY 72% |
| 09/23 | +128 | -155 | NYY 75%, NYY 72% |
| 09/23 | +129 | -155 | NYY 75%, NYY 72% |
| 09/23 | +128 | -155 | NYY 72%, NYY 67% |
| 09/23 | +123 | -149 | NYY 96%, NYY 57% |
| 09/23 | +129 | -156 |
The Yankees have had majority support throughout. New York opened at -156, dipped briefly to -149, then settled in at -155 for most of the night. The Yankees' share of the money has grown from 72% to 89%, and their ticket share has risen from 57% to 77%. Even so, the price has come down to -150 in the latest move, with Tampa Bay improving from +129 to +124 on the other side. The Yankees are getting more support while becoming a cheaper favorite, which gives New York backers a better entry point than at the open. That also improves the value on the -1.5 run line at +153.
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/24 | 6 (-119) | 6 (-101) | OV 100%, OV 82% |
| 09/24 | 6.5 (-102) | 6.5 (-118) | OV 100%, OV 82% |
| 09/24 | 6.5 (-105) | 6.5 (-115) | OV 100%, OV 82% |
| 09/24 | 6.5 (-110) | 6.5 (-110) | OV 100%, OV 83% |
| 09/24 | 6.5 (-113) | 6.5 (-107) | OV 81%, OV 75% |
| 09/24 | 6.5 (-115) | 6.5 (-104) | OV 78%, OV 67% |
| 09/23 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (+100) | |
| 09/23 | 6.5 (-121) | 6.5 (+100) | |
| 09/23 | 6.5 (-120) | 6.5 (+100) |
The total shows a clear case of reverse line movement. This game opened at 6.5 with the Over at -120 and the Under at +100. As the betting came in, the public piled onto the Over, eventually reaching 100% of the money and 82% of the tickets. Yet the Under kept getting more expensive at every step: from +100 to -104, -107, -110, -115 and then -118. The book then dropped the total to 6.
When a number moves against nearly all of the public money, it usually means sharper bettors are on the other side. The Under has been the market's side from the start, even while the tickets and money said Over. At 6, a total of exactly six runs would be a push, so the Under at -101 still needs five runs or fewer to win. With Schlittler on the mound, that is a very reachable outcome.
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Rays vs Yankees Key Matchups and Game Preview
This AL East series has produced a mix of results. New York won the opener 2-0, Tampa Bay responded with a 6-1 win, and the Yankees broke out for a 9-2 victory in the third game. The Rays have the better record at 96-62, five games ahead of New York at 91-67. Thursday's game swings heavily on the starting pitching matchup, which is about as lopsided as it gets between two contenders.
Yankees Ace Cam Schlittler
Cam Schlittler has been outstanding. The right-hander is 14-6 with a 1.94 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 190.2 innings. He has struck out 234 hitters and allowed only 126 hits. That is well under a hit per inning and more than a strikeout per inning over a full season's workload. Schlittler misses bats, limits baserunners and works deep into games, which makes him the ideal starter to back on both a run line and an Under.
Against a Tampa Bay lineup that relies on contact with a .258 team average, Schlittler's strikeout ability is a major weapon. A 0.91 WHIP means the Rays will rarely have more than one runner on at a time, and that makes it hard to build rallies.
Rays Lefty Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour has been a solid option for Tampa Bay but is not at Schlittler's level. The left-hander is 9-7 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across 127.1 innings. He has 155 strikeouts and only 36 walks, which is an excellent ratio and a big reason his WHIP is so low. The problem is power: Seymour has allowed 25 home runs.
That home run total is the key number for bettors. Seymour keeps runners off base, but when hitters make hard contact, the ball leaves the park often. Against a Yankees lineup with 221 home runs this season, even with some big bats sidelined, the long ball is Seymour's biggest risk.
Tampa Bay Makes More Contact
The Rays have the edge in batting average, hitting .258 as a team compared with New York's .234. Tampa Bay puts the ball in play and makes consistent contact. However, Schlittler's 234 strikeouts and 0.91 WHIP are built to neutralize that type of lineup. Contact hitters need balls in play to score, and Schlittler has limited opponents to 126 hits in 190.2 innings.
Rays Bats: Caminero and Simpson
Junior Caminero is the biggest threat in the Tampa Bay lineup. He is hitting .274 with 41 home runs and 97 RBIs, and he is the hitter most capable of beating Schlittler with one swing. Chandler Simpson leads the Rays' contact attack with a .309 average. If Simpson gets on base in front of Caminero, Tampa Bay has a path to runs. But with Schlittler allowing so few baserunners, those chances should be rare.
New York Without Its Biggest Bats
The Yankees' lineup is significantly weakened. Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham are both on the injured list, and Giancarlo Stanton is also sidelined. Losing all three removes major offensive pieces from a team that has hit 221 home runs with a .410 slugging percentage. The remaining power comes largely from Ben Rice, who has 41 home runs and 97 RBIs, and Cody Bellinger adds a .268 average with a .343 OBP. These missing bats are the biggest reason to keep the total expectations low and the main risk on the run line.
Yankees Staff Holds the Edge
New York's pitching advantage extends to the full staff. The Yankees carry a 3.21 team ERA compared with Tampa Bay's 3.71. The Rays' bullpen is also missing Manuel Rodriguez, Garrett Cleavinger, Edwin Uceta and Jonathan Heasley, so if Seymour can't work deep, Tampa Bay will be forced to lean on a thinned relief group. Meanwhile, Schlittler's workload means the Yankees may need little from their bullpen at all.
Why the Yankees Can Win by Multiple Runs
The run line at +153 requires a Yankees win by two or more. New York has already won two games in this series by two and seven runs. With Schlittler likely to hold the Rays to a run or two, the Yankees need only a few runs to cover. Rice's power against a pitcher who has allowed 25 home runs, along with a depleted Tampa Bay bullpen late, gives New York a realistic path to a 4-1 or 3-1 type of win.
TB vs NYY Betting Trends
Rays Trends
- Tampa Bay enters Thursday at 96-62.
- The Rays trail the four-game series 2-1.
- Tampa Bay won the second game of the series 6-1.
- The Rays were shut out 2-0 in the opener and lost 9-2 in the third game.
- Ian Seymour has allowed 25 home runs over 127.1 innings.
- Tampa Bay owns a 3.71 team ERA.
Yankees Trends
- New York enters Thursday at 91-67.
- The Yankees lead the four-game series 2-1.
- New York has covered -1.5 in both of its wins in the series.
- Cam Schlittler is 14-6 with a 1.94 ERA over 190.2 innings.
- The Yankees own a 3.21 team ERA.
- New York's moneyline dropped from -156 to -150 despite 89% of the money.
- The total dropped from 6.5 to 6 as the Under moved from +100 to -118.
TB vs NYY Key Injuries and Things To Know
Tampa Bay Injury Report
- Manuel Rodriguez – Injured (reliever)
- Garrett Cleavinger – Injured (reliever)
- Edwin Uceta – Injured (reliever)
- Jonathan Heasley – Injured (reliever)
New York Injury Report
- Aaron Judge – Injured List
- Trent Grisham – Injured List
- Giancarlo Stanton – Sidelined
Things To Know About the Rays and Yankees
The Yankees' injuries are all on offense, and they are significant. Judge, Grisham and Stanton represent major pieces of the lineup, and their absence limits New York's ability to pile up runs. That is a big part of why the total is only 6. It also means the Yankees will likely need to win a low-scoring game rather than blow the Rays out.
Tampa Bay's injuries are concentrated in the bullpen. With Rodriguez, Cleavinger, Uceta and Heasley all out, the Rays have fewer reliable arms behind Seymour. If he gives up a home run or two early and exits, the thin Tampa Bay bullpen could let the game slip away. That helps the Yankees run line, even if it adds some risk to the Under.
Rays vs Yankees Side and Over/Under Picks
New York Run Line Pick
The side pick is New York Yankees -1.5 (+153). Schlittler is the best player in this game, and his 1.94 ERA and 0.91 WHIP give the Yankees a real chance to hold the Rays to one run or fewer. When a starter this dominant is on the mound, the run line becomes the most efficient way to back his team.
Laying -150 on the moneyline is fair, but +153 on the run line pays far more for a result the matchup supports. The main risk is the missing Yankees bats, which could keep the offense quiet. However, Rice's power against Seymour's 25 home runs allowed and a thinned Tampa Bay bullpen give New York enough ways to build a multi-run cushion.
Under Pick for Tampa Bay at New York
The total pick is Under 6 (-101). Schlittler's numbers alone make a low-scoring game likely, and Seymour's 155 strikeouts and 36 walks show he can keep traffic down as well. The Yankees' lineup is missing Judge, Grisham and Stanton, which lowers their scoring ceiling.
The market agrees. The total dropped from 6.5 to 6 while the public was betting the Over, and the Under was steadily pushed from +100 to -118 before the number moved. At 6, a six-run game is a push, but the Under still wins with five or fewer runs, which fits a Schlittler start well. The opener of this series ended 2-0, and a similar game Thursday would cash easily.
Rays vs Yankees Final Score Prediction
- Projected Final Score: Yankees 4, Rays 1
- Winner: New York Yankees
- Run Line: Yankees -1.5 (+153) covers
- Total: 5 runs, Under 6 hits
Schlittler should dominate the Rays' lineup, with Caminero the only real threat to break through. Seymour keeps New York quiet for stretches, but his home run problem could hurt him, with Rice providing the key blow. The Yankees add a run or two against the thin Tampa Bay bullpen late. A 4-1 New York win cashes the run line and the Under.
How to Wager On Rays vs Yankees
This matchup comes down to trusting Cam Schlittler. The Yankees -1.5 at +153 gives you plus money on one of the most dominant starters in the league, while the -150 moneyline offers a safer but less rewarding option. The recent drop from -156 to -150 means bettors are getting a better price than earlier in the market, which makes both options more attractive.
The Under 6 is supported by the pitching matchup, the Yankees' missing bats and a market that moved against heavy Over money. Keep in mind that exactly six runs is a push at this number, so shop around in case 6.5 is still available at another book. Bettors who like both plays can pair the Yankees run line with the Under in a same-game parlay, since a low-scoring New York win by two or more helps both legs. Lock in your numbers before the 7:05 PM ET first pitch.
For more ways to find value on games like this one, check out our breakdown of the top AI picks platforms. You can also read our Dimers review for simulation-based projections, or explore our Oddible review to see how another data-driven tool can help you spot edges across the MLB board.
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