Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Picks and Prediction for Saturday March 28 2026
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The Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals meet at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri on Saturday, March 28, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 2:15 PM and television coverage on MLB.TV. The betting odds for this matchup list Tampa Bay at -108 on the moneyline and St. Louis at -110, while the total is set at 7.5 runs. On the run line, the Rays are -1.5 at +159 and the Cardinals are +1.5 at -194. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more action on today’s board.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
These teams just met in the previous game, and St. Louis came away with a 9-7 win at home over Tampa Bay. The game was tightly played early, with the Cardinals taking a 1-0 lead through five innings before both lineups erupted in the sixth. Tampa Bay scored six runs in the top half of that inning to swing momentum, but St. Louis answered with eight runs in the bottom half and ultimately held on for the two-run victory. The Rays finished the game with seven runs on 17 hits and committed two errors, while the Cardinals scored nine runs on 14 hits and played error-free baseball.
From an offensive standpoint, Tampa Bay produced plenty of traffic throughout the game. Jonathan Aranda stood out with two hits, a home run, and two RBI, while Nick Fortes collected three hits and drove in one run. Ben Williamson added three hits and an RBI, and Jonny DeLuca chipped in two hits with two RBI. Yandy Díaz also recorded three hits, and Chandler Simpson contributed a hit and an RBI after entering the game. Even with 17 hits, the Rays left 16 runners on base and went 5-for-15 with runners in scoring position, which played a major role in the loss. For St. Louis, Alec Burleson delivered a huge performance with three hits, a home run, and two RBI. Noah Church had three hits and two RBI, Victor Scott II added three hits and stole two bases, and Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and JJ Wetherholt all made important contributions. Wetherholt homered and drove in two, while Gorman also knocked in two runs.
On the mound, the Rays received a solid start from Drew Rasmussen, who worked 5.0 innings and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out two. The game changed dramatically after that. Ian Seymour did not record an out and was charged with five earned runs on five hits, while Garrett Cleavinger took the loss after allowing two earned runs in just one-third of an inning. Griffin Jax also surrendered a run, and although Yimi Gómez settled things over the final two innings, the damage had already been done. For St. Louis, Matthew Liberatore started and allowed one run on seven hits across 5.0 innings. The bullpen was shaky in stretches, with Mike Svanson, Justin Bruihl, and Chris Roycroft all allowing runs, but Riley O’Brien earned the win with 1.1 scoreless innings and Ryan Stanek picked up the save despite issuing three walks in the ninth.
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The key takeaway from that game is that both offenses showed they can generate scoring opportunities in a hurry, but St. Louis did the better job of turning its chances into runs. Tampa Bay had more hits, yet the Cardinals were more efficient and cleaner defensively, and that combination proved to be the difference in a high-scoring opener.
Tampa Bay Rays – Road Form & Team Analysis
Tampa Bay enters this game with a 0-1 overall record and a 0-1 mark on the road. The Rays recently lost to the Cardinals, recently lost to Atlanta, recently won over Philadelphia, recently lost to Toronto, and recently won over Minnesota. That recent stretch has featured both competitive outings and uneven results, with the offense showing flashes of explosiveness even in defeat.
As a team, the Rays are batting .395 with seven runs, 17 hits, and one home run. Their on-base percentage sits at .460 and their slugging percentage is .465. On the pitching side, Tampa Bay carries a 10.13 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, with one walk and three strikeouts, while opponents are batting .378 against them. Those numbers show a club that hit well in its opener but struggled to keep St. Louis from doing damage at the plate.
The biggest theme for Tampa Bay is that the lineup clearly has the ability to create offense, but the overall result still came up short because the pitching staff could not protect the lead after a huge inning. Jonathan Aranda’s home run and two RBI, along with strong games from Nick Fortes, Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca, and Yandy Díaz, demonstrated that this lineup can pile up hits. Still, leaving 16 runners on base in the previous game shows that even with plenty of production, the Rays did not maximize every opportunity.
St. Louis Cardinals – Home Field Breakdown
St. Louis comes into this game at 1-0 overall and 1-0 at home. The Cardinals recently won over the Rays, recently won over Houston, recently won over Miami, recently won over the Mets, and recently won over Washington. That gives them five straight wins entering Saturday’s matchup, and they have already shown they can thrive in this home setting.
The Cardinals are batting .378 as a team with nine runs, 14 hits, and two home runs. Their on-base percentage is .375 and their slugging percentage is .595. On the mound, St. Louis owns a 7.00 ERA and a 2.56 WHIP, with six walks and five strikeouts, while opponents are batting .395 against them. Those numbers suggest that while the pitching staff allowed a lot of contact in the opener, the lineup generated enough impact swings to overcome it.
The edge for St. Louis right now is timely offense and the ability to change a game quickly. Alec Burleson’s three-hit effort with a homer and two RBI was a major spark, while Noah Church and Victor Scott II each collected three hits. JJ Wetherholt and Nolan Gorman each drove in two runs as well, and the club got production from up and down the lineup. The Cardinals did not need as many hits as Tampa Bay to win because they were more efficient with their chances and avoided the defensive mistakes that hurt the Rays.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
The pitching matchup features Tampa Bay right-hander Joe Boyle, jersey number 36, against St. Louis right-hander Michael McGreevy, who also wears number 36. Boyle went 1-4 in the 2025 season with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 52.0 innings. He recorded 58 strikeouts against 28 walks, allowed 43 hits, and gave up 27 earned runs. Opponents batted .221 against him with a .327 opponent on-base percentage and a .374 opponent slugging percentage. Over his career, Boyle owns a 6-10 record with a 4.98 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP across 115.2 innings, with 129 strikeouts and 73 walks. McGreevy went 8-4 in the 2025 season with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 95.2 innings. He posted 58 strikeouts and 20 walks while allowing 100 hits and 47 earned runs. Opponents hit .268 against him with a .309 opponent on-base percentage and a .426 opponent slugging percentage. In his career, McGreevy is 11-4 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP across 118.2 innings, with 76 strikeouts and 22 walks. Based strictly on the provided data, Boyle brings the stronger strikeout profile and lower opponent batting average from last season, while McGreevy brings the better win-loss mark, lower WHIP, and stronger overall career numbers.
Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick
Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Spread / Moneyline Pick
The pick is the St. Louis Cardinals moneyline. St. Louis enters this game on a five-game winning streak and already beat Tampa Bay 9-7 in the opener of this series. The Cardinals have been the more efficient club so far, turning 14 hits into nine runs in the previous game while also playing clean defense. Tampa Bay’s lineup clearly has life, but the Rays are coming off a game in which they allowed nine runs and committed two errors. Michael McGreevy also brings a stronger 2025 win-loss record and a lower WHIP than Joe Boyle, so based only on the data provided, St. Louis has the steadier overall profile coming into this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Total Pick
I like the over 7.5 in this matchup. These teams combined for 16 runs in the previous game, and both offenses were productive right away, with Tampa Bay recording 17 hits and St. Louis adding 14 more. The Rays are batting .395 as a team, while the Cardinals are batting .378 and slugging .595. Tampa Bay’s team ERA sits at 10.13 and St. Louis carries a 7.00 ERA, so the recent data points clearly support offense. With both lineups coming off strong performances and neither team showing dominant run prevention in the opener, I like this game to go over the posted total.
Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals win 6-4
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