Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres Picks an Prediction for Friday, July 10, 2026

By: David Anicetti Published 07/10/2026, 12:15 AM ET
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The Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game series against the San Diego Padres on Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Toronto enters with a 44-49 record and sits third in the AL East, 11.5 games behind Tampa Bay, while San Diego is 46-46 and second in the NL West, 14 games behind the Dodgers. The Blue Jays arrive with momentum after back-to-back wins over San Francisco, while the Padres have won three of their last four following a 10-4 victory over Arizona. Build a bigger bankroll with our free MLB picks

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Toronto ranks 17th in MLB with a .244 team batting average while scoring 376 runs and hitting 93 home runs. Kazuma Okamoto has supplied the power with 21 home runs and 59 RBI, while Ernie Clement continues to lead the club with a .297 batting average and 102 hits. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .262 with a team-best .343 on-base percentage, and Daulton Varsho has added seven home runs, 24 RBI and eight stolen bases. 

The Blue Jays have produced 761 hits this season but have struggled to generate consistent offense on the road. Toronto's pitching staff ranks 13th in MLB with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP while recording 23 quality starts and 808 strikeouts. 

Injuries: Jesus Sanchez (10-Day IL), Lenyn Sosa (10-Day IL), Max Scherzer (15-Day IL), Yimi Garcia (60-Day IL). Braydon Fisher is away on bereavement leave.

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San Diego Padres Preview

San Diego ranks 30th in MLB with a .226 team batting average while scoring 362 runs and hitting 96 home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the lineup with a .284 average, 101 hits and 23 stolen bases. Manny Machado has driven in 51 runs with 18 home runs despite batting .188, while Gavin Sheets has contributed 14 home runs and 39 RBI. Ty France has also provided steady production, batting .254 with 10 home runs and 30 RBI.

The Padres rank 17th in MLB with a 4.26 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. San Diego has managed only 16 quality starts this season but has remained competitive through timely hitting and bullpen depth. 

Injuries: Matt Waldron (15-Day IL), Freddy Fermin (10-Day IL), Randy Vasquez (15-Day IL), Samad Taylor (10-Day IL). Manny Machado is listed as day-to-day.

Pitching Matchup

Toronto Blue Jays – Shane Bieber (RHP)

Bieber enters at 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.08 WHIP across 13.0 innings. He has allowed 20 hits and six home runs while striking out nine batters. Toronto will be looking for the veteran right-hander to settle into a rhythm after a difficult return to the rotation.

San Diego Padres – JP Sears (LHP)

Sears is 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 15.1 innings. He has struck out 14 batters while allowing 14 hits and four home runs. Sears has shown the ability to miss bats, but limiting hard contact will be critical against Toronto's right-handed hitters.

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Both offenses have shown signs of improvement entering the series, but San Diego holds the advantage at home and faces a Toronto starter who is still searching for consistency. Bieber's early struggles create opportunities for the Padres lineup to build an early lead, while Sears has been steady enough to keep Toronto from stringing together big innings. The Blue Jays should remain competitive behind Okamoto and Clement, but San Diego's balanced attack and home-field advantage make the difference late. Expect the Padres to capitalize on scoring chances and win a closely contested opener while continuing their recent strong stretch at Petco Park. Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres win 6-4.

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