Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Prediction for Friday, June 5, 2026

By: Jake Allman Published 06/05/2026, 12:15 AM ET

The Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks meet Friday night at Chase Field, with the first pitch set for 9:40 PM ET on MLB.TV. Washington comes in at 31-32 overall and 19-12 on the road, while Arizona is 32-29 overall and 19-12 at home. ESPN Analytics gives Arizona a slight edge at 54.4%, and that lines up with the home-field setup and the pitching matchup. Elevate your MLB game with our top-notch MLB picks.

Nationals Preview

Washington has dropped three straight games, all at home against Miami, after taking two straight from San Diego. The Nationals still bring a better road record than overall record, which makes them live in this spot. The offense has been solid enough with a .243 average, .321 OBP, .412 slugging percentage, 331 runs, and 78 home runs, led by James Wood’s 16 homers and CJ Abrams’ .288 average with 47 RBI.

Foster Griffin gets the ball for Washington, and his numbers give the Nationals a real chance to settle this game early. Griffin is 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 65 strikeouts, and 21 walks over 67.0 innings. The concern is the long ball, with 13 home runs allowed, and that matters in a warm Chase Field game where mistakes can turn into quick damage.

Diamondbacks Preview

Arizona has also had a rough recent stretch, losing four of the last five, including back-to-back losses to the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks were shut out 7-0 in the latest game, so the offense needs a sharper response at home. Arizona’s season numbers are not loud, with a .242 average, .307 OBP, .392 slugging percentage, 273 runs, and 53 home runs, but the club has been strong at Chase Field with a 19-12 home record.

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Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona, and his 5-3 record looks better than the rest of his stat line. Kelly has a 5.06 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 33 strikeouts, 22 walks, and 10 home runs allowed across 53.1 innings. That creates some risk, but Arizona’s overall pitching profile is cleaner than Washington’s, with a 4.04 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared to Washington’s 4.71 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Pick

The pick is Arizona to win, with a projected final score of Diamondbacks 5, Nationals 4. Washington has the better offensive totals and Griffin has been steadier than Kelly, so this is not a runaway spot. Still, Arizona’s home record, stronger team pitching numbers, and matchup predictor edge make the Diamondbacks the better side. Best bets are Arizona to win and a lean toward both teams scoring, while avoiding any run line or total without a posted number.

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