Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Saturday March 28 2026
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The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs meet at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois on Saturday, March 28, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM. Television coverage for this matchup is listed on ESPN Unlmtd and MLB.TV. The betting odds show Washington at +179 on the moneyline and Chicago at -219, while the total is set at 9.5 runs. On the run line, the Nationals are +1.5 at -112 and the Cubs are -1.5 at -108. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more action on the board.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
The previous game between these two teams ended with the Nationals picking up a 10-4 road win over the Cubs. Washington built its offensive push in waves, scoring once in the second inning and then breaking the game open with six runs in the fourth before adding insurance later on. Chicago had moments where it fought back, including a two-run third inning and another run in the fourth and seventh, but the Cubs could not slow down the Nationals long enough to flip momentum. By the final out, Washington had turned a strong middle portion of the game into a comfortable six-run victory.
From the box score standpoint, the Nationals scored 10 runs on 11 hits and committed two errors, while the Cubs finished with 4 runs on 8 hits and one error. Washington did a much better job converting chances, leaving only three runners on base and going 3-for-6 with runners in scoring position. Chicago had more missed opportunities, leaving nine runners on base and finishing 4-for-19 with runners in scoring position. That difference in situational hitting helped define the final margin, even though both teams put traffic on the bases during different stretches of the game.
Washington’s hitting summary was driven by impact swings and efficient run production. Joey Wiemer had a huge performance, going 3-for-3 with a home run, an RBI, and a perfect 1.000 average, on-base percentage, and 2.000 slugging percentage for the game. Brady House added two hits, including a home run, and drove in two runs. Jacob Young also homered and knocked in two, while CJ Abrams collected one hit and drove in two runs. Andrés Chaparro had two hits, Daylen Lile contributed an RBI, and Keibert Ruiz chipped in a hit as the Nationals got production from throughout the lineup. For Chicago, Michael Busch stood out with three hits, two doubles, and an RBI, while Pete Crow-Armstrong collected two hits and drove in two runs. Carson Kelly reached base twice with a hit and a walk, and Dansby Swanson added an RBI, but the Cubs did not get the kind of extra-base power Washington produced.
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On the mound, the Nationals pieced together the win with several arms. Cade Cavalli started and went 3.2 innings, allowing 3 runs, 2 of them earned, on 3 hits while striking out 5 and walking 3. P.J. Poulin followed with a scoreless inning, and Brad Lord earned the win after working 2.1 innings and allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 1 strikeout and no walks. Connor Beeter and C. Perez combined to finish the job with two scoreless innings, though Beeter did issue two walks. As a staff, Washington allowed 8 hits and 4 runs, only 3 of them earned, while striking out 9 and walking 6. Chicago’s pitching line was much rougher. Matthew Boyd took the loss after lasting 3.2 innings and allowing 6 earned runs on 6 hits, though he did strike out 7. Ben Brown gave up 2 more runs over 3.1 innings, Julian Merryweather was not listed here, but H. Milner worked a scoreless inning, and J. Webb allowed 2 runs, though both were unearned, in the ninth. Overall, the Cubs gave up 10 runs, 8 of them earned, on 11 hits while striking out 12 and walking 2.
The key takeaway is that Washington got the cleaner offensive result and made the most of its opportunities, while Chicago left too many chances on the table and could not keep the Nationals in the yard. The Nationals showed immediate punch in the opener, and the Cubs now head into the second game needing a much sharper overall performance after allowing 10 runs at home.
Washington Nationals – Road Form & Team Analysis
The Nationals come into this game with a 1-0 overall record and a 1-0 mark on the road. Washington recently won over the Cubs, recently lost to Baltimore, recently lost to Baltimore again, recently won over the Mets, and recently lost to Miami. That run of games shows some inconsistency in the results, but the most recent outing was clearly their strongest showing, especially offensively.
As a team, Washington is batting .297 with 10 runs, 11 hits, and 3 home runs. The Nationals also carry a .350 on-base percentage and a .568 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, they have a 3.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, with 6 walks and 9 strikeouts, while opponents are batting .235 against them. Those numbers point to a team that got meaningful offensive production in its opener and paired it with a staff effort that limited damage well enough to secure a solid win.
The most obvious strength for Washington right now is its power production and timely hitting. Joey Wiemer, Jacob Young, and Brady House all left the yard in the previous game, and the lineup turned just 11 hits into 10 runs because it was efficient when chances appeared. CJ Abrams added two RBI as well, and the team’s ability to leave only three men on base tells the story of an offense that did not waste many opportunities. Even with 12 strikeouts at the plate, the Nationals still controlled the game because their biggest swings came in the most important moments.
Chicago Cubs – Home Field Breakdown
The Cubs enter this contest at 0-1 overall and 0-1 at home. Chicago recently lost to Washington, recently lost to the Yankees, recently won over the Yankees, recently won over Milwaukee, and recently won over Seattle. The recent form shows that the Cubs had been playing well before the opener of this series, but that momentum was interrupted by a rough home loss.
Chicago is batting .235 with 4 runs, 8 hits, and no home runs. The Cubs have posted a .350 on-base percentage with a .294 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff owns an 8.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, with 2 walks and 12 strikeouts, while opponents are batting .297 against them. Those team numbers reflect a club that still got on base at a decent clip in the opener but did not generate enough impact contact, while the pitching staff gave up too much hard damage despite recording plenty of strikeouts.
The biggest issue for Chicago coming out of the previous game is that the lineup did not match Washington’s power or efficiency. Michael Busch delivered an excellent game with three hits and two doubles, and Pete Crow-Armstrong drove in two runs, but the Cubs finished without a home run and left nine runners on base. On the pitching side, Matthew Boyd and Ben Brown allowed multiple runs before the game got out of reach, and the team’s inability to contain Washington’s extra-base damage was a major factor in the loss.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
This pitching matchup features Washington right-hander Miles Mikolas, jersey number 36, against Chicago right-hander Cade Horton, jersey number 22. Mikolas is listed at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, throws right-handed, and was born in Jupiter, Florida. In the 2025 season, Mikolas went 8-11 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP across 156.1 innings. He allowed 169 hits and 84 earned runs while striking out 100 and walking 37. Opponents batted .272 against him with a .313 opponent on-base percentage and a .492 opponent slugging percentage, and he allowed 29 home runs. Over his career, Mikolas owns a 72-75 record with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP across 1252.1 innings, with 895 strikeouts, 246 walks, and 1277 hits allowed. Horton, meanwhile, is listed at 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds, throws right-handed, and was born in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. In the 2025 season, Horton went 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 118.0 innings. He gave up 95 hits and 35 earned runs while striking out 97 and walking 33. Opponents hit just .219 against him, with a .282 opponent on-base percentage and a .333 opponent slugging percentage, and he allowed 10 home runs. Based strictly on the provided data, Horton enters this matchup with the sharper recent profile, featuring the better ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average, and win-loss record, while Mikolas brings the much larger career workload and experience.
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Spread / Moneyline Pick
The pick is the Chicago Cubs moneyline. Even though Washington won the opener 10-4, the larger profile for this matchup still leans toward Chicago because Cade Horton brings the stronger pitching numbers into the game. Horton’s 11-4 record, 2.67 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and .219 opponent batting average from 2025 compare favorably against Mikolas and give the Cubs a clear edge on the mound based on the provided data. Chicago had also recently won over the Yankees, Milwaukee, and Seattle before this loss, so there is still a stronger recent team base here than just one result. The Nationals were excellent in the opener, but with the Cubs favored heavily and Horton holding the better statistical profile, Chicago is the side I would back.
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
I like the over 9.5 in this matchup. The first game of the series finished with 14 total runs, and Washington showed it can score in bunches with 10 runs, 11 hits, and 3 home runs. Chicago only scored 4 in that one, but the Cubs still had 8 hits, drew 6 walks, and left 9 runners on base, which shows there were more chances there than the final number might suggest. Washington’s team slugging percentage sits at .568, while Chicago’s pitching staff has an 8.00 ERA through its first game. Even with Horton’s strong 2025 numbers, the opener showed both lineups are capable of creating traffic, so I like this matchup to get over the posted number.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs win 6–5
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