Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Picks and Prediction for Sunday March 29 2026
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The Washington Nationals visit the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois on Sunday, March 29, 2026, with first pitch scheduled for 2:20 PM and coverage on MLB.TV. Chicago enters this matchup as a heavy favorite, with the Cubs listed at -240 on the moneyline while Washington comes back at +194. At the time of this writing the odds were not released. Be sure to check out our free MLB picks for more daily baseball betting insight and analysis.
Previous Game Recap & Box Score
The previous game in this series was a one-sided result, as the Chicago Cubs rolled to a 10-2 win over the Washington Nationals. Chicago took control early with four runs in the second inning, added another in the fourth and one more in the fifth, then blew the game open with four additional runs in the sixth. Washington managed only one run in the fourth and another in the fifth, but never truly threatened after the Cubs built separation. The Nationals finished with two runs on four hits and one error, while the Cubs piled up 10 runs on nine hits without committing an error, showing a much more complete performance from the home side.
Washington’s offense was limited throughout the game, though James Wood did provide one of the few highlights with a solo home run in the fourth inning. Nasim Nunez also drove in a run, while Luis Garcia Jr. and Darren Lile each recorded one hit. The Nationals did not generate much sustained pressure, finishing with only four hits and grounding into three double plays, which cut off any chance of building larger innings. Chicago’s lineup was far more productive. Ian Happ drove in three runs with a home run, Miguel Amaya added a home run and two RBIs, and Jacob Wetherholt, Nico Hoerner, and Matt Shaw each chipped in runs batted in as well. Pete Crow-Armstrong also scored twice and collected two hits, helping keep the lineup moving throughout the afternoon.
On the mound, Washington had a difficult time containing the Cubs lineup. M. Mikolas took the loss after working five innings and allowing six runs, four of them earned, on six hits while walking three and striking out four. A. Granillo and K. Waldichuk also allowed two runs apiece, while C. Henry was the lone Nationals pitcher to keep a clean line in relief. As a staff, Washington gave up nine hits, 10 runs, eight earned, and six walks while allowing two home runs. Chicago’s pitching was far more effective. C. Horton earned the win with 6.1 innings of work, allowing four hits and two earned runs while striking out four. The bullpen followed with scoreless work from P. Maton, C. Thielbar, and J. Webb, combining to hold Washington hitless over the final 2.2 innings.
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The key takeaway is that Chicago controlled the game in every area, combining more power, better situational hitting, and steadier pitching, while Washington could not generate enough offense to keep pace once the Cubs jumped ahead.
Washington Nationals – Road Form & Team Analysis
The Nationals come into this game with a 1-1 overall record and a 1-1 record on the road. Washington recently lost to Chicago, recently won over Chicago, recently lost to Baltimore, recently lost to Baltimore, and recently won over New York. That recent stretch shows a team that has been capable of putting runs on the board, but it has not found much consistency from one game to the next.
As a team, Washington is batting .297 with 10 runs, 11 hits, and three home runs while carrying a .350 on-base percentage and a .568 slugging percentage. On the pitching side, the Nationals have posted a 3.00 ERA with a 1.56 WHIP, along with six walks and nine strikeouts while allowing opponents to hit .235. Those numbers show that Washington has some offensive punch, particularly in power production, but the pitching staff has allowed enough traffic to create trouble spots.
The Nationals’ strength is clearly their ability to hit for power, but their weakness in the previous game was the inability to string together quality at-bats against Chicago’s pitching. Wood provided the home run, and Nunez added an RBI, but the team produced only four hits and grounded into three double plays. Even with strong overall team numbers coming into the game, that kind of limited offensive output puts far too much pressure on the pitching staff.
Chicago Cubs – Home Field Breakdown
The Cubs enter this contest at 1-1 overall and 1-1 at home. Chicago recently won over Washington, recently lost to Washington, recently lost to New York, recently won over New York, and recently won over Milwaukee. That recent sample suggests a team that can be volatile from game to game, but when the lineup gets rolling, it can produce in a big way.
Chicago is batting .235 with four runs, eight hits, and no home runs while posting a .350 on-base percentage and a .294 slugging percentage. Their pitching staff carries an 8.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP with two walks and 12 strikeouts while opponents are batting .297 against them. Those numbers indicate a club that has not been dominant statistically overall, but it did show in the most recent game that the offense can outperform those early team averages.
A key trend for Chicago is that several hitters are contributing in important spots. Happ’s three RBIs, Amaya’s two-run production, and Crow-Armstrong’s ability to get on base and score twice all gave the Cubs a strong offensive foundation in the previous game. When that depth shows up, Chicago becomes much harder to handle, especially at home.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
This pitching matchup features Jake Irvin, a right-handed pitcher wearing number 27 for Washington, against Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher wearing number 18 for Chicago. Irvin is coming off a 2025 season in which he went 9-13 with a 5.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP across 180 innings. He allowed 195 hits and 120 runs, including 114 earned runs, while striking out 124 and walking 62. His career numbers show a 4.94 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 488.2 innings, with opponents batting .257 against him. Imanaga had a stronger 2025 season, going 9-8 with a 3.73 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP across 144.2 innings. He allowed 117 hits and 62 runs, including 60 earned runs, while striking out 117 and walking only 26. His career line with Chicago is even better, sitting at a 3.28 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP across 318 innings, with opponents batting .222 against him. Based strictly on the provided data, Imanaga enters this matchup with the stronger command, better WHIP, lower ERA, and more effective overall run prevention.
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Pick
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Spread / Moneyline Pick
The pick in this matchup is the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline. Even though Washington’s overall team batting numbers are stronger on paper, Chicago just dominated the most recent game in this series and did it with more impactful offense and steadier pitching. Imanaga also has the clear edge in the pitching matchup over Irvin based on ERA, WHIP, and opponent batting numbers. With the Cubs already showing they can break through against this Nationals staff and with the stronger starter on the mound, Chicago has the better case.
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Total Pick
I like the over in this game based on the provided data. The previous matchup between these clubs produced 12 total runs, and Washington’s team numbers still show a lineup with home run power and run-producing ability even after a poor showing in the most recent game. Chicago also just scored 10 runs on nine hits, with several hitters contributing. With Irvin bringing a 5.70 ERA into the game and the Cubs already finding success in this series, I see enough evidence here to lean toward the over.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs wins 6–4
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