Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, December 23, 2025
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The Denver Nuggets (21-7) head to the American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Mavericks (11-19) on Tuesday, December 23, 2025. Get in on the action with our free NBA picks.
Denver Nuggets Analysis
Denver comes in as one of the NBA’s most potent offensive units, ranking near the top in scoring and offensive efficiency. Jokić continues to put up MVP-caliber numbers, and Denver’s ball movement and shotmaking put pressure on every defense they face. According to recent season tracking, the Nuggets average roughly 124.7 points per game and allow around 116.2 points per contest. Their strength is elite scoring efficiency and facilitating through multiple creators.
Team Overview and Metrics
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Offensive rating: Leading the league (near 126.1 ORtg).
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Scoring offense: Around 124.7 points per game, top-ranked in the NBA.
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Defense: Roughly 116.2 points allowed per game, middle of the pack.
Strengths
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Nikola Jokić: A perennial MVP candidate averaging near 29.4 points, 12.1 rebounds and 10.7 assists — a true triple-double threat nightly.
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Elite offense: Denver’s scoring efficiency and ability to get high-percentage looks force opponents into difficult defensive decisions.
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Ball movement: High assist rates drive open shots and keep defenses scrambling.
Weaknesses
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Defensive consistency: While not terrible, Denver’s defense sits in the middle of the league, occasionally allowing runs.
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Turnovers: A high assist offense can come with turnovers, especially against aggressive defenders.
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Road pressure: Despite success, road nights can see efficiency dip if shots aren’t falling early.
Dallas Mavericks Analysis
Dallas has shown flashes of competitiveness but enters this game with a losing record and defensive struggles. The Mavericks have been up and down this season, including a December loss to the Pelicans where defensive lapses in the fourth proved costly. They average roughly 113.0 points per game but allow about 116.7 points, reflecting defensive imbalance.
Team Overview and Metrics
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Scoring offense: 113.0 PPG, a middle-to-lower tier mark.
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Defense: Roughly 116.7 points allowed per game, near the lower end.
Strengths
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Emerging talent: Cooper Flagg leads the Mavericks with around 18.8 PPG, providing athletic scoring.
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Defensive 3-point success: Dallas ranks among the better teams in limiting opponent three-point percentage.
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Home crowd: Playing in Dallas gives energy boosts, especially early.
Weaknesses
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Record & consistency: Dallas holds a sub-.500 mark and has struggled to string wins together.
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Defense: Allowing over 116 points per game points to issues in rotations and rim protection.
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Injury/depth concerns: Key players like Kyrie Irving are out (expected return in February), which limits offensive firepower.
Standout Players and Key Matchups
Denver
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Nikola Jokić: His all-around game and playmaking presents matchup nightmares.
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Supporting cast: Role scorers and shooters like Jamal Murray complement Denver’s offense.
Dallas
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Cooper Flagg: Emerging as the Mavericks’ leading scorer and athletic driver.
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Role shooters: Secondary shooters must knock down shots to keep Dallas competitive.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction Reasoning
Denver’s offensive firepower and Jokić’s MVP-level play give the Nuggets a significant edge in this matchup. While Dallas possesses young talent and flashes of scoring, inconsistency and defensive struggles make containing Denver difficult. Expect the Nuggets to control tempo early and force Dallas into contested shots.
If Dallas tightens perimeter defense and forces Denver into isolation, they could stay close, but Denver’s balance and efficiency should prevail. The best sportsbooks are the best way to go when you are betting on the Nuggets. Make sure you know about how the fans are looking on prediction markets for the Mavericks with the Onyx Odds promo code. Getting the most out of your bets on Mavericks vs Nuggets can be done by using the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Final Score Projection: Nuggets 123, Mavericks 109
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Best Picks
- Nuggets -7.5
- Under 237.5 total points
