Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction for Monday November 9 2026
Denver visits Houston on Monday night for an 8:30 PM ET tip at Toyota Center. The Nuggets are coming off a 114-102 win over Indiana in Mexico City on Saturday, while the Rockets are probably still irritated about losing 102-99 in Phoenix. That was a game Houston had a chance to win. Now the Rockets get Denver, a team that hasn’t lost on the road yet. I wouldn’t expect this to be easy for either club. Houston has been defending better, though, and that’s where I think the difference comes. Get into the NBA action with our free NBA picks.
Denver Hasn’t Had Much Trouble Scoring
Denver is 5-3 and has won all three of its road games. The Nuggets handled Indiana on Saturday and beat Toronto 128-109 earlier in the week. That’s two straight wins, with 242 points between them. Not bad. The trip back from Mexico City is worth considering, but Denver has been playing good basketball away from home. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the travel unless the Nuggets come out looking flat.
The offense is putting up around 115 points a game, and Denver is shooting close to 49% from the floor. The ball moves, too. Nearly 28 assists a night tells you the Nuggets aren’t just standing around waiting for somebody to make a difficult shot. Defensively, they’re giving up roughly 114 points. That’s where things get interesting against Houston. The Rockets can score, but they’re also good at making opponents work for their baskets. Denver won’t get the same easy looks it found against Toronto.
Julian Strawther is out with a knee injury, and DeMar DeRozan has been dealing with back trouble. His availability is something to check before tipoff. Denver needs its perimeter shooting because Houston is going to make the paint crowded. The Nuggets also can’t get careless with the ball. They’re capable of winning this game, especially if their outside shots are falling. But I don’t love asking them to beat a good defensive team on the road right after that Mexico City trip.
Sign Up Get $30 Premium Picks Credit + Exclusive Offers
Subscribe Now
Houston Needs to Get Back to What Was Working
Houston is 7-3 and 4-1 at home. The Rockets had beaten Boston and Oklahoma City before Saturday’s loss to Phoenix. Then they scored just 99 points against the Suns and lost by three. That’s basketball. Sometimes the shots don’t fall. What I liked was that Houston still held Phoenix to 102. The Rockets gave themselves a chance to win despite having a rough offensive night.
Houston has been scoring around 118 points a game and allowing about 107. That defensive number is the one I keep coming back to. Denver has the prettier offensive movement, but Houston has been much better at getting stops. The Rockets have also been shooting close to 39% from three, so they can punish teams that collapse too far into the paint. Denver has been allowing roughly seven more points per game. Over a full game, that’s a meaningful difference.
Steven Adams and Clint Capela are unavailable, and I’d be lying if I said that didn’t concern me. Denver is a team that can make you pay for being short-handed inside. Houston needs its available big men to rebound and stay out of foul trouble. Still, the Rockets have been winning games without a full frontcourt. They’ve got enough scoring, and their defense has been doing the dirty work. That’s a combination I trust at home.
Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Picks and Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Houston Rockets
I’d take Houston here. Denver’s 3-0 road record is impressive, and the Nuggets have enough shooting to make the Rockets uncomfortable. But Houston is allowing around 107 points a game. Denver is giving up about 114. I know those numbers don’t decide a game by themselves, but they tell you which team has been more dependable defensively. And Houston is playing at home, where it’s won four of five.
The missing Houston centers worry me more than anything else. Denver could have a big night inside. But if the Rockets keep the Nuggets from getting comfortable on the perimeter, I think they can survive that. I’m expecting a close game. Houston makes a few more stops late and gets the win.
Total Pick: Under 230.5 Points
I’m going under 230.5, assuming that’s the number available. Look at what Houston just did in Phoenix. The Rockets scored only 99, but they also held the Suns to 102. That’s a team capable of winning without getting into a shootout. Denver has been scoring well, and its shooting percentages make this a little uncomfortable. Both clubs can get hot from three.
Here’s what I keep coming back to, though. Denver just played in Mexico City, and Houston has been holding opponents to about 107 points. I don’t think the Nuggets are going to get everything they want offensively. Houston should score more than it did Saturday, but I don’t see a reason this has to reach 235 or 240. Give me something around 116-110.
Final Picks: Houston Rockets Moneyline | Under 230.5 Points (if available)
Never Tried Picks and Parlays? Now Is Your Chance
- Get your first daily picks package for ONLY $1 using coupon code BUCK
- If the pick loses, we credit your account with 3 Flex Picks
- If the pick wins, we still give you 1 Flex Pick on the house
- Win or lose, you walk away ahead. One dollar. No catch.
Get Up to $1,000 Back in Bonus Bets Over Your First 10 Days
New Users - Get $200 in Bonus Bets when you wager $5 for 4 days
New DraftKings Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 + 3 Months of NBA League Pass
