Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Predictions for Saturday April 25 2026
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The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves meet in Game 4 of the Western Conference First Round at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Saturday, April 25, 2026, at 8:30 PM. Minnesota leads the series 2-1, and coverage is available on ABC. The Nuggets are listed as -2.5 favorites with a -122 moneyline, while the Timberwolves are +102 on the moneyline. The total is set at 229.5, with both the over and under priced at -110, setting up a competitive matchup as the series continues in Minnesota. Get ready for all the NBA action with our Free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota recently won over Denver 113-96 in Game 3, taking a 2-1 series lead. The Timberwolves controlled the game early, building a strong advantage with a 25-point first quarter and extending it with a 36-point second quarter. Denver attempted to respond in the second half, but Minnesota maintained control and closed out the game comfortably.
For Denver, Nikola Jokic led the way with 27 points and 15 rebounds while shooting 7-of-26 from the field and converting all 11 of his free throws. Jamal Murray added 16 points and four assists, while Cameron Johnson and Spencer Jones each contributed six points. Off the bench, Tyus Jones scored 11 points, and Bruce Brown added nine points with four rebounds. The Nuggets struggled with shooting efficiency overall, finishing 28-of-82 from the field.
For Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels scored 20 points on 9-of-13 shooting while adding 10 rebounds, and Julius Randle contributed 15 points with six rebounds and four assists. Anthony Edwards added 17 points with five rebounds and three assists, while Rudy Gobert anchored the interior with 10 points, 12 rebounds, and three blocks. Donte DiVincenzo added 15 points and seven assists, and Ayo Dosunmu provided a strong boost off the bench with 25 points and nine assists.
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Denver Nuggets Look to Respond After Game 3 Loss
Denver enters Game 4 with a 54-28 record and a 26-15 mark on the road. The Nuggets have recently lost to Minnesota 113-96 and recently lost to Minnesota 119-114 after recently won over Minnesota 116-105 earlier in the series. Prior to the playoffs, they also recently won over San Antonio 128-118 and recently won over Oklahoma City 127-107, showing strong offensive output in recent performances.
The Nuggets average 122.1 points per game while allowing 112.3 points against. They shoot 50 percent from the field and average 44.0 rebounds and 29.0 assists per game. Defensively, Denver records 4.0 blocks and 6.8 steals per game, reflecting a balanced statistical profile on both ends of the floor.
The key strength for Denver is its offensive production. Averaging 122.1 points per game, the Nuggets have one of the highest scoring outputs based on the provided data. However, that strength did not translate in Game 3, where they were held to 96 points, making their offensive consistency a focal point heading into this matchup.
Minnesota Timberwolves Build Momentum at Home
Minnesota comes into this game with a 49-33 record and a 26-15 mark at home. The Timberwolves have recently won over Denver 113-96 and recently won over Denver 119-114 after recently lost to Denver 116-105 earlier in the series. Outside of this matchup, they have also recently won over New Orleans 132-126 and recently won over Houston 136-132, demonstrating their ability to score in high-paced games.
The Timberwolves average 118.0 points per game while allowing 108.7 points against. They shoot 48 percent from the field and average 44.1 rebounds and 26.1 assists per game. Defensively, Minnesota records 5.8 blocks and 8.7 steals per game, showing activity on that end of the floor.
Minnesota’s key strength is its defensive scoring margin. Allowing 108.7 points per game while scoring 118.0 provides a strong differential based on the provided data. That advantage was evident in Game 3, where they limited Denver’s scoring and controlled the game from the start.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick
- Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5
Minnesota is the pick based on recent results and current series momentum. The Timberwolves have recently won over Denver in two straight games, including a 113-96 victory in Game 3. Their defensive numbers, allowing 108.7 points per game, align well against Denver’s need for consistent scoring. While the Nuggets have the higher scoring average, Minnesota’s ability to control recent matchups and perform well at home supports taking the points in this spot.
Total Pick
- Pick: Over 229.5
The over is the lean based on both teams’ scoring averages. Denver averages 122.1 points per game, while Minnesota averages 118.0, suggesting a high combined scoring potential. Although Game 3 finished below this number, both teams have shown the ability to produce high totals in recent games, including results like 119-114 and 132-126 in their recent schedules. With both offenses capable of generating points, the over 229.5 stands out.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves 118 – Denver Nuggets 112
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