Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Predictions for Thursday April 23 2026
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The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves meet for Game 3 of their Western Conference First Round series at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on Thursday, April 23, 2026, with tip-off scheduled for 9:30 PM. The game will be available for streaming on Prime Video as both teams look to gain the upper hand in a series that is currently tied 1-1. According to the latest odds, Denver enters as a slight road favorite with a spread of -2.5 and a moneyline of -135, while Minnesota sits at +114. The total for this matchup is set at 233.5 points, setting the stage for what could be another high-scoring contest. Be ready to check out all the basketball action with our Free NBA picks.
Previous Game Recap
Minnesota evened the series with a 119-114 victory over Denver in Game 2, pulling away late after a back-and-forth battle throughout much of the night. The Nuggets started strong with a dominant first quarter, building an early lead, but the Timberwolves responded in the second period and maintained control down the stretch. Minnesota’s ability to stay composed in the fourth quarter ultimately proved to be the difference as they closed out the win on the road.
For Minnesota, the offense was led by a strong collective effort from the starting unit. Anthony Edwards paced the team with 30 points while adding 10 rebounds, showcasing his ability to impact the game on both ends. Julius Randle contributed 24 points and nine rebounds, while Jaden McDaniels added 14 points with efficient shooting. Donte DiVincenzo chipped in 16 points and six assists, helping facilitate the offense, and the bench provided valuable support, including 11 points from Naz Reid and 13 from Bones Hyland, rounding out a balanced scoring attack.
Denver saw solid production from its core players despite the loss. Jamal Murray led the way with 30 points and seven assists, keeping the Nuggets competitive throughout the contest. Nikola Jokic added 24 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists in a near triple-double performance, while Christian Braun contributed 16 points. Cameron Johnson added 13 points, and the bench saw contributions from Tim Hardaway Jr., who scored 16 points, but it was not enough to overcome Minnesota’s offensive depth and late-game execution.
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Nuggets Look to Regain Control on the Road
The Denver Nuggets enter this matchup with a 54-28 record and a strong 26-15 mark on the road this season. Over their last five games, Denver has recently won over Minnesota in Game 1 before recently lost to Minnesota in Game 2. Prior to the playoffs, they were playing at a high level, recently winning over San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Memphis, showing consistent offensive production during that stretch. The split in the first two games highlights both their potential and the challenges they face heading into Game 3.
From a statistical standpoint, Denver has been one of the most efficient offensive teams, averaging 122.1 points per game while allowing 112.0 points defensively. Their shooting efficiency stands out with a 50% field goal percentage, and they have also been strong in ball movement, averaging 29.0 assists per game. The Nuggets also contribute 44.0 rebounds per contest, showing balance across multiple facets of the game.
One key strength for Denver is their offensive efficiency and ability to generate high-percentage looks. Their shooting and assist numbers indicate a team that thrives on execution and ball movement. However, their recent loss showed that even with strong production, maintaining defensive consistency late in games will be critical, especially against a Minnesota team that has proven capable of matching their scoring output.
Timberwolves Return Home with Momentum
The Minnesota Timberwolves come into Game 3 with a 49-33 record and an impressive 26-15 record at home. Over their last five games, Minnesota has recently won over Denver in Game 2 after recently lost to Denver in Game 1. Prior to the series, they also recently won over New Orleans and Houston, while recently lost to Orlando. That stretch reflects a team that has been competitive offensively and capable of putting up points in bunches.
Minnesota is averaging 118.0 points per game while allowing 115.0 points, indicating a team that relies heavily on offensive production. They shoot 48% from the field and slightly edge Denver on the glass with 44.1 rebounds per game. Defensively, they contribute 8.7 steals and 5.8 blocks per contest, showing an ability to create turnovers and disrupt opposing offenses.
A key strength for Minnesota is their defensive activity, particularly their ability to generate steals and blocks. Combined with their scoring ability, this creates opportunities for transition offense and momentum swings. Their Game 2 performance showed how dangerous they can be when they combine scoring depth with timely defensive plays, especially heading back to their home floor.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Prediction
Spread Pick
- Minnesota Timberwolves +
The Timberwolves proved in Game 2 that they can handle Denver’s offensive firepower while generating enough scoring of their own to stay ahead late. With the series shifting to Minnesota and the Timberwolves holding a strong home record, their ability to create defensive pressure through steals and blocks becomes even more impactful. While Denver remains efficient offensively, Minnesota’s recent win over them and balanced production suggest they can keep this game within reach or even take control. Taking the Timberwolves with the points provides value in what should be another competitive matchup.
Total Pick
- Over
Both teams have demonstrated consistent scoring ability, with Denver averaging 122.1 points per game and Minnesota putting up 118.0. The first two games of the series have shown that both offenses can find rhythm, and the posted total of 233.5 reflects that expectation. Given the pace implied by their scoring averages and the defensive numbers that allow points on both sides, this matchup leans toward another high-scoring contest. The over appears to be the stronger play based on how both teams have performed offensively.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves 118 – Denver Nuggets 114
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