Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026
I still can’t figure out how New Orleans lost that game in Denver on Saturday. The Pelicans were up 23 points, had 108 on the board after three quarters, and somehow walked out with a 141-135 overtime loss. You can’t give away a game like that and expect people to have much confidence in you the next time around. Especially when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are waiting on the other bench.
The two teams get another crack at each other Wednesday night, this time at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Tipoff is 8:00 PM ET. Denver is coming off a 134-114 loss to Golden State on Monday, so the Nuggets have a few things to clean up themselves. Still, I’d rather put my money on Denver to finish a close game. I’m also looking at the Over if the total comes in around 234.5. Get into the action with the best and free NBA picks.
Denver Nuggets Need to Get Their Defense Straightened Out
Denver is 1-2, and the Nuggets have already had a strange opening week. Oklahoma City held them to 84 points in their opener. They followed that by scoring 141 against New Orleans, then gave up 134 to Golden State on Monday. That’s quite a swing from one night to the next. The Warriors loss was ugly, but I wouldn’t forget what Denver did against the Pelicans. Down 23 and still won. There aren’t many teams that can pull that off.
The Nuggets are averaging 112.7 points and allowing 121.7 through three games. I don’t like that defensive number one bit. Golden State got far too comfortable Monday, and New Orleans had 73 points by halftime in the first meeting. Denver has to start getting stops before the fourth quarter. The offense is another matter. When Jokic gets the ball in the middle of the floor, somebody usually ends up with a good shot. New Orleans had all kinds of trouble dealing with that once Denver started making its run.
Murray scored 42 against the Pelicans, hitting eight three-pointers. Jokic wasn’t exactly quiet either. He finished with 35 points, 15 rebounds and ten assists. Those are the two guys I’d want handling the ball with two minutes left and the game tied. Rookie Trevon Brazile chipped in 17 points and nine rebounds, including a big three in overtime. Denver does have some missing pieces. Cameron Johnson is out with an ankle injury, Julian Strawther has a knee problem, Spencer Jones is sidelined with a hamstring injury, and Alpha Diallo has a wrist issue. The bench will have to contribute again, but Denver still has its two best players available.
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New Orleans Pelicans Have to Learn How to Finish
New Orleans is 0-3, and every loss has been close enough to hurt. Indiana beat the Pelicans 123-120. Utah got them 120-119. Then came Saturday’s mess in Denver. The Pelicans led 108-89 after three quarters and got outscored 37-18 in the fourth. That’s where they lost the game. Denver didn’t suddenly discover some secret play. New Orleans stopped getting the same good shots it had been getting all night, and the defense couldn’t slow Murray or Jokic.
The Pelicans are averaging 124.7 points, so scoring hasn’t been the issue. They’re allowing 128, though, and that’s a lot to overcome. They put up 135 against Denver and still lost. Think about that for a second. New Orleans had 70 points in the paint and 51 from its bench in that game. Those are terrific numbers. But the Pelicans also turned it over 18 times, and when Denver made its fourth-quarter push, they couldn’t get enough defensive stops to settle things down. Playing at home should help. It won’t fix those mistakes by itself.
Trey Murphy III scored 26 against Denver, making ten of his 17 shots. Dejounte Murray added 22 points and six assists. Zion Williamson and Derik Queen each finished with 17. That’s four players giving New Orleans something offensively, and the Pelicans still couldn’t close it out. Yves Missi missed that game with a knee injury and is listed as day-to-day. His status matters against Jokic because New Orleans could use another healthy big man. The Pelicans have enough scoring talent to beat Denver. What they haven’t shown is that they can protect a lead when the other team starts coming back.
Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Picks and Predictions
Denver Nuggets Moneyline
I’m sticking with Denver. Not because the Nuggets are playing great basketball. They aren’t. Their defense has been lousy at times, and Golden State just beat them by 20. But New Orleans already had the Nuggets in a terrible spot Saturday and couldn’t put them away. Murray scored 42, Jokic put up a triple-double, and Denver found a way to win when it had no business winning. That’s the difference for me. If Wednesday’s game is tied with three minutes left, who do you trust to get a good shot? I’m going with Jokic and Murray. New Orleans could absolutely win if it plays four quarters the way it played the first three in Denver. I just haven’t seen the Pelicans do that yet. Give me the Nuggets on the moneyline.
Over 234.5 — Target Total
I’ll take Over 234.5 if that’s the number available. The first game finished with 276 points, although overtime helped push it that high. Even through regulation, the teams had combined for 252. New Orleans scored 135 against Denver and has been putting up nearly 125 a night. Denver’s defense just allowed another 134 to Golden State. Neither team has given me much reason to expect a defensive struggle. The Nuggets could slow things down and try to avoid another wild game, and that’s the biggest concern with the Over. But the Pelicans like to run, and Denver has already shown it can score against them. I don’t need another 141-135 finish. A game in the neighborhood of Denver 123-118 would be enough.
Final Picks: Denver Nuggets Moneyline and Over 234.5 (target total)
Preview updated October 27, 2026.
