Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions for Thursday October 22 2026
Eight and a half points against Nikola Jokic? That’s the first thing that caught my eye when I looked at Denver’s opener. I know Oklahoma City is good. Everybody knows Oklahoma City is good. The Thunder won 64 games last season and came out Tuesday night looking like they hadn’t missed a beat. But Denver isn’t some rebuilding team coming into town hoping to stay respectable.
Oklahoma City beat San Antonio 116-104 in its opener, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring 32 points. The Thunder had a 21-point halftime lead, let the Spurs get back into it, and still won by 12. Denver hasn’t played a regular-season game yet, so this is the Nuggets’ first chance to see how everything looks when the games actually count.
Denver visits Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on Thursday, October 22, 2026. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 PM ET on ESPN. The Thunder are favored by 8.5 points, with the total at 235.5. You can find more predictions in our free NBA picks.
Denver Nuggets Aren’t Going To Be An Easy Out
Denver finished 54-28 last season, and the Nuggets still have Jokic and Jamal Murray. That’s a pretty good place to start. They’ve had the whole offseason to work on things, and now they get the Thunder right out of the gate. Not exactly a friendly opening assignment. But Denver has played enough big games over the years that I don’t think anybody in that locker room is going to be intimidated by Oklahoma City.
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The Nuggets can make this game uncomfortable for the Thunder if they take care of the basketball. That’s the big thing. Oklahoma City loves getting into passing lanes and turning turnovers into easy baskets. Denver can’t afford to give the Thunder a bunch of those. Jokic is one of the best passing big men we’ve ever seen, and he’ll find the open man if Oklahoma City starts sending extra defenders. The Nuggets need to be patient, work through their offense, and avoid getting dragged into a track meet. That’s not how I’d want to play the Thunder.
Jokic is still the guy everything revolves around. He can score, rebound, and make passes that most guards wouldn’t even see. Murray gives Denver another player who can get hot and take over a quarter. The question is how much help they get from everybody else, especially in the first game of the season. Spencer Jones has been dealing with a hamstring injury, and Julian Strawther has a knee issue. Those aren’t the biggest names on the roster, but depth matters when you’re trying to keep up with Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City Thunder Look Ready To Go Again
Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season and opened this year with a 116-104 win over San Antonio. The Thunder were up 21 at halftime, which tells you how well they started. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32, Jared McCain knocked down six threes, and Oklahoma City looked pretty comfortable until the Spurs made a run in the second half. The Thunder didn’t panic. They got things back under control and finished the job.
What makes Oklahoma City such a pain to play is its defense. The Thunder get after the ball, make passing difficult, and turn mistakes into points before the other team can get back. San Antonio shot just 29.2% in the first half Tuesday. That’s ugly. Denver will be tougher to defend because Jokic can pick apart pressure, but the Nuggets still have to execute. If Oklahoma City starts getting steals and easy baskets, that eight-and-a-half-point spread won’t look so big anymore.
Gilgeous-Alexander was terrific Tuesday, and McCain’s 20 points were a nice bonus. Six three-pointers from a guy other than your main star will make life pretty easy. Chet Holmgren gives Oklahoma City another weapon, especially defensively. He’s long enough to bother shots around the rim and mobile enough to make things difficult outside. Jokic will still get his numbers, but Holmgren and the rest of the Thunder can make him work for them. That’s the challenge for Denver.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Picks and Predictions
Denver Nuggets +8.5 (-115)
Give me Denver and the points. Oklahoma City should win this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Thunder look like the better team for most of the night. But Jokic and Murray are good enough to keep Denver hanging around. The Nuggets can slow things down, work the ball through Jokic, and make Oklahoma City defend for a full possession. That’s how I’d attack the Thunder. If Denver starts throwing the ball away, this could get ugly. But I don’t think the Nuggets are going to make enough mistakes to lose by double digits. I’ll take the 8.5.
Under 235.5 Points
I’m taking the under. Oklahoma City can score, and Denver has plenty of offense too, but I don’t think the Nuggets want to play this game at a crazy pace. Jokic is too good at controlling things for that. Denver will try to get good shots, use the clock, and keep the Thunder from running. Oklahoma City’s defense should make the Nuggets work for their points, and that helps the under. The danger is a bunch of turnovers turning into easy baskets, especially if the Thunder get hot early. Still, I think this game settles into a slower pace than the total suggests. Oklahoma City 117, Denver 111.
Final Picks: Denver Nuggets +8.5 (-115) and Under 235.5 Points (-112)
This preview was completed October 21, 2026. Betting lines, injuries, and starting lineups may change before tipoff.
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