Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Predictions for Wednesday October 28 2026
Golden State finally got itself a win Monday, and it was a good one. The Warriors went into Denver and beat the Nuggets 134-114. Twenty points on the road. That’ll get everybody feeling better after an ugly start. But now they’ve got Minnesota, and I think that’s a tougher matchup than the score in Denver might suggest. The Timberwolves have been defending pretty well, they’ve got size around the basket, and Anthony Edwards has been scoring like somebody forgot to tell him it’s only October. I’ll give Golden State credit for Monday. I’m still taking Minnesota.
The Warriors visit Target Center in Minneapolis on Wednesday, October 28. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 PM ET. Golden State is looking for its second straight win after opening the season with three losses. Minnesota just lost a 127-125 overtime game in Cleveland. My picks are Minnesota -5.5 or better and Under 238.5, both at target numbers until the sportsbook lines are confirmed. Get into the action with the best and free NBA picks.
Golden State Warriors Finally Found Some Offense
Golden State is 1-3, with a 1-2 road record. The Warriors lost their opener to the Lakers, dropped a close one to Memphis and then lost 131-122 in Phoenix. Monday’s win over Denver was a much better effort. Golden State scored 134 and didn’t let the Nuggets make much of a game of it late. That’s the sort of performance the Warriors needed. Still, one win doesn’t erase everything that went wrong during the first three games.
Golden State is scoring about 117 points per game and allowing around 121. That’s a lot of points to give up, especially when you’re missing important players. The Warriors have been able to score when their outside shooting gets going, but they’ve had trouble defending without fouling or giving up second chances. Minnesota is a bad opponent for those problems. The Timberwolves have been strong on the glass, and they can make Golden State work for every rebound. If the Warriors spend too much time trying to match Minnesota’s size, they could find themselves chasing shooters on the perimeter.
Yaxel Lendeborg has been one of Golden State’s early bright spots, averaging 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds. De’Anthony Melton has also given the Warriors efficient scoring. But Jimmy Butler is out following knee surgery, Moses Moody remains sidelined, and Kristaps Porzingis is unavailable. Those are important pieces to be missing against Minnesota. Golden State has enough offense to stay competitive, but I don’t like its chances of defending Edwards and controlling the glass for 48 minutes.
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Minnesota Timberwolves Have the Better Matchup
Minnesota is 3-1, with a 1-0 home record. The Timberwolves opened with three straight wins, beating Miami, Orlando and Toronto before losing 127-125 in overtime at Cleveland on Monday. That loss was frustrating, but I wouldn’t make too much of it. Minnesota scored 125 on the road against a good Cleveland team and had chances to win. The Timberwolves have been playing good basketball, and now they get back home to face a Warriors team that’s still trying to figure out its rotation.
Minnesota is averaging 122 points and allowing 108.8. The offense has been getting good looks, and the defense has been better than Golden State’s. The Timberwolves also have a big advantage on the boards with Rudy Gobert protecting the paint. Golden State can make three-pointers, but it hasn’t been consistently stopping opponents from scoring inside. That’s where Minnesota should be able to control the game. If the Timberwolves get enough second chances, Golden State will have trouble keeping up.
Edwards is averaging 33.3 points, and he just scored 47 in the overtime loss to Cleveland. That’s a pretty good reason to trust Minnesota’s offense. Gobert is pulling down 14.3 rebounds per game, while LaMelo Ball is averaging 6.3 assists. Donte DiVincenzo is out with an Achilles injury, which hurts the perimeter rotation, but Minnesota still has plenty of scoring. Edwards is the player Golden State has to stop, and I’m not convinced the Warriors have the healthy defenders to do it.
Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves Picks and Predictions
Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 or Better — Target Spread
I’m taking Minnesota -5.5 or better. Golden State deserves credit for winning in Denver, but I think the Warriors are running into a tougher defensive team Wednesday. Minnesota has the size to control the glass, and Edwards is playing too well for me to trust Golden State’s depleted perimeter defense. The Warriors can shoot themselves into a game, and that’s the danger when you’re laying points against them. If they hit 18 or 20 threes, nobody’s going to enjoy holding a Minnesota ticket. But over four quarters, I like the Timberwolves to get more good shots and more second chances. Minnesota should win by something around eight.
Under 238.5 — Target Total
Under 238.5 is the other play. I know Golden State just scored 134, and Minnesota put up 125 against Cleveland. Those numbers make the over tempting. But Minnesota has been defending well enough to make me question whether the Warriors can repeat Monday’s shooting performance. Golden State is also missing several players who normally help create offense. The risk is Edwards getting hot and Golden State answering with a bunch of threes. That’s how this could turn into another 125-120 game. But I think Minnesota controls the pace a little better at home. Give me something around 119-110.
Final Picks: Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5 or Better (target spread) and Under 238.5 (target total)
Preview prepared October 27, 2026.
