Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns Picks and Predictions for Thursday December 18 2025
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Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns picks highlight Thursday night in the desert, and I am breaking down this Western Conference matchup as part of my latest NBA free picks. With both teams looking to bounce back from recent losses, this game sets up as a classic buy-low spot for the home side.
TLDR: Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread: Phoenix +1.5
- Total: Over 230
- Projected Final Score: Suns 117, Warriors 114
Odds and Line Movement
Current Odds
| Team | Spread |
|---|---|
| Golden State | -1.5 (-110) |
| Phoenix | +1.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Golden State | Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| 12/18 | -1.5 (-112) | +1.5 (-108) |
| 12/17 | -2.5 (-110) | +2.5 (-110) |
| 12/17 | -1 (-110) | +1 (-110) |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 12/17 | 230 (-108) | 230 (-112) |
| 12/17 | 229 (-112) | 229 (-108) |
| 12/17 | 228 (-110) | 228 (-110) |
Key Matchups and Game Preview
Golden State earned a 118-107 home win over Phoenix in the first week of November, but the Warriors enter this rematch in poor form. Golden State has dropped back-to-back games as a five-point favorite against Minnesota and Portland, allowing 127 and 136 points in those losses. The most troubling aspect was fourth-quarter execution, as the Warriors were out-scored 40-32 by Portland and 39-29 by Minnesota in the final frame.
Phoenix has also dropped consecutive games, losing to Oklahoma City and the Lakers, but context matters. Since November 21, the Suns have faced one of the toughest stretches in the league, playing the Timberwolves twice, Rockets twice, Thunder twice and Lakers twice, along with games against the Spurs and Nuggets. That level of competition would test any roster, and the Suns finally get a chance to breathe at home.
Injuries could influence rotations. Isaiah Livers and Grayson Allen are listed as questionable for Phoenix, while Al Horford and Pat Spencer are ruled out for Golden State. With both teams on equal rest after playing Sunday, I am inclined to back the Suns at home, viewing this as a buy-low spot after a brutal schedule.
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Betting Trends for GSW and PHX
- Golden State has lost back-to-back games as a favorite.
- Phoenix has played eight games against elite opponents since late November.
- The Warriors were out-scored in the fourth quarter in each of their last two games.
Key Injuries and Things To Know for GSW and PHX
- Isaiah Livers is questionable for Phoenix.
- Grayson Allen is questionable for Phoenix.
- Al Horford is ruled out for Golden State.
- Pat Spencer is ruled out for Golden State.
Side and Over and Under Picks
- Side: Phoenix +1.5
- Total: Over 230
Final Score Prediction
Suns 117, Warriors 114
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